The House GOP Majority is Getting Even Slimmer
What’s keeping Mike Johnson up at night.
Good morning! It’s Wednesday, January 7, 2026. As you might have noticed on Monday, I accidentally included my end-of-year message instead of a new-year message. Sorry about that. So I haven’t yet had a chance to say: Happy New Year! I hope you’ve been enjoying your 2026 so far.
Here at Wake Up To Politics, I think we’ve gotten off to a strong start to the year, with coverage of the U.S. operation in Venezuela and the fraud scandal in Minnesota. I don’t have one big story for you this morning; instead, we’re going to do a grab-bag catching up some of the different developments I’m watching from across the political world. (And read to the end to find links to the two stories I’m obsessed with this morning.)
I’ve also included a voiceover of this morning’s newsletter, which you can access by clicking the “play” button above. This is something I’ll be experimenting with in the new year, so feel free to give it a listen and let me know what you think!
Before we dive in: The first mailbag issue of 2026 will be on Friday! What questions do you have about American politics as the new year begins? Anything you’re wondering about? Curious about in the months ahead? Or want to know what I’m thinking on a certain topic? Now’s your chance to ask!
You can send in a question by leaving a comment below or by filling out this anonymous form.
* House math. Rep. Doug LaMalfa (R-CA) died suddenly at age 65 on Tuesday, after suffering an aneurysm and being rushed to the hospital for emergency surgery. He then suffered a heart attack during surgery and died.
LaMalfa’s death, combined with Rep. Marjorie Taylor Greene’s (R-GA) resignation, which took effect on Monday, leaves Republicans with an incredibly slim 218-member majority. In addition, Rep. Jim Baird (R-IN) is dealing with a spinal issue after a serious car crash; he has already been discharged from the hospital, but it is unclear when he will return to Washington.
This all sets up a rocky few months for House Republicans. Here’s the math…
From now until January 31: The House is split 218-213. On otherwise party-line votes with full attendance, Republicans can only suffer two GOP defections and still pass a bill (or one if Baird is absent).
January 31: Democrats expected to win special election to succeed Rep. Sylvester Turner (D-TX), who died in March.
January 31 to March 10: The House is split 218-214. Republicans drop down to being able to lose one GOP member on otherwise party-line votes (with or without Baird).
March 10: Republicans expected to win special election to succeed Greene.
March 10 to April 16: The House is split 219-214. Republicans go back to being able to sustain two defections.
April 16: Democrats expected to win special election to succeed Rep. Mikie Sherrill (D-NJ), who resigned to become governor of New Jersey.
April 16 to May or June: The House is split 219-215. Republicans drop down to only being able to lose one member again.
May or June: Republicans expected to win special election to succeed LaMalfa.1
After that: The House is (finally) back to full strength, split 220-215, unless any other vacancies occur. Republicans can only lose two of their members on a given vote and succeed.
And don’t forget: at least one GOP member, Rep. Thomas Massie (R-KY), has made a habit of voting against Republicans on key votes. (Trump endorsed a primary challenger against Massie on Monday.) Also, there are a lot of key votes coming up, including a shutdown deadline on January 30 and likely war powers votes regarding President Trump’s actions in Venezuela.2 Speaking of…
* The latest from Venezuela. We are now getting some insight into President Trump’s governing plans for Venezuela after capturing the country’s leader Nicolás Maduro over the weekend. Per Politico, Trump has laid out three demands for interim president Delcy Rodríguez in exchange for allowing her to remain in power: “cracking down on drug flows; kicking out Iranian, Cuban and other operatives of countries or networks hostile to Washington; and stopping the sale of oil to U.S. adversaries.”
Trump also announced on Truth Social last night that Venezuela’s interim government would be turning over “between 30 and 50 MILLION Barrels of High Quality, Sanctioned Oil” to the U.S., which would then sell it, with the proceeds “controlled by me, as President of the United States of America, to ensure it is used to benefit the people of Venezuela and the United States.” Rodríguez has yet to confirm these plans; it is also unclear under what authority Trump would “control” the money, since the Miscellaneous Receipts Act of 1849 requires that any new revenue obtained by the government be deposited into the Treasury and not used until Congress decides how to spend it.
Politico also reported that U.S. officials expect Rodriguez to eventually facilitate free elections and step aside, although the officials stressed that no elections are imminent. (Trump has said that his first priority is to “fix up the oil” before worrying about elections.) Trump has yet to speak with Nobel Peace Prize-winning Venezuelan opposition leader María Corina Machado, who appears to have been frozen out from discussions about Venezuela’s future. Per the Wall Street Journal, the CIA recently concluded that keeping Rodríguez and the rest of Maduro’s regime in place after his capture would be better for the country’s near-term stability than elevating Machado.
Trump is set to meet with oil executives on Friday about plans for Venezuela, amid signals from some companies that they are much less interested in oil from the country than Trump is.
Currently developing: For the past few weeks, in the waters near Venezuela, the U.S. has been chasing a Russia-flagged oil tanker known as Bella 1, which attempted to evade the U.S. blockade on sanctioned oil tankers entering and leaving Venezuela. This morning, U.S. forces moved to seize the vessel — and Russia sent a submarine to protect it. This could create further tensions between Washington and Moscow at the same time as Trump’s sympathies seem to be wobbling in Russia’s war with Ukraine, and also shows how his designs on Venezuela could scramble other relationships around the world.
* MAGA imperialism. And not just his designs on Venezuela. Since the operation in Caracas, Trump and his aides have repeatedly made hints that their global ambitions are even broader. The White House said in a statement Tuesday that “acquiring Greenland is a national security priority of the United States” and specifically added that “utilizing the U.S. Military is always an option at the Commander in Chief’s disposal.”
It is unclear how seriously that threat should be taken — Secretary of State Marco Rubio has reportedly told lawmakers that Trump wants to buy Greenland from Denmark, not invade it — but just the fact that the U.S. is refusing to rule out a military operation against a NATO ally is nevertheless sparking fear across Europe.
Some Republican lawmakers have pushed back against Trump’s Greenland threats, including Utah Rep. Blake Moore (who called them “needlessly dangerous”) and North Carolina Sen. Thom Tillis (who called on Trump to “respect the sovereignty” of Denmark), both in joint statements with Democratic colleagues.
Sen. Ruben Gallego (D-AZ) has said that he plans to force a vote on a resolution that would prevent a U.S. military incursion into Greenland, which could potentially lead to an embarrassing brushback of Trump on the Senate floor.
A few more notes:
Health care. The enhanced Obamacare subsidies expired at the end of the year, but negotiations on extending them are still continuing. Per Semafor, a bipartisan group of senators are closing in on a deal that would revive the enhanced subsidies for two years. One obstacle remains GOP calls to toughen restrictions preventing federal health care funding from flowing to abortion, but Trump urged Republicans on Tuesday to “be a little flexible” on the issue, much to the dismay of pro-life lawmakers.
January 6th. The White House published a new official webpage on the anniversary of the Capitol riot yesterday that blames the Capitol Police, not the rioters, for “escalating tensions” after the Capitol was broken into.
Alien Enemies Act. I noted on Monday that different Trump officials backed the Maduro operation for different reasons, citing New York Times reporting that key adviser Stephen Miller has pushed for conflict with Venezuela as a way to use the Alien Enemies Act, the 1798 law that allows for expediting deportations during wartime. Sure enough, the administration is now invoking the events in Venezuela to defend its use of the Alien Enemies Act in court.
In the states. The Wyoming Supreme Court ruled Tuesday that a state law banning abortion — and another banning abortion pills, the first of its kind — violate the state constitution. Notably, the Republican-appointed justices ruled that the laws violated an amendment added to the state constitution by Republicans in 2012 … as a way to push back against Obamacare. The amendment gives all Wyoming citizens the right to “make health care decisions” for themselves.
Recommended reads. Two stories that are fascinating me this morning: 1) Who was the mystery trader who, in the week before the U.S. captured Maduro, placed several bets on Polymarket gambling that the Venezuelan leader would soon be ousted and ended up netting more than $400,000? 2) You have to read this wild New York Times piece (gift link) on what happened when a son and daughter realize that their 85-year-old father married Sara Jane Moore, the woman who tried to kill Gerald Ford in 1975.
LaMalfa’s seat was decimated by Democratic redistricting in California, but the special election will be held under the previous district lines, which means it will be a heavily Republican seat.
Under the War Powers Resolution of 1973, any member in the House or Senate can force a vote on restricting presidential war powers, so expect to see resolutions on Venezuela (and other potential U.S. targets, like Greenland) come before both chambers soon.
Last spring, when everyone was screaming about Constitutional crises, you said you felt we had not yet reached that point. Do you still feel that way? Why or why not?
From my 100 foot view it would appear Trump's takeover of Venezuela oil and talk about 'acquiring' Greenland, would make it harder to condemn Putin's Ukraine or Europe desires or XI's unification of Taiwan. However my friend says that's comparing apples to oranges so it's not the case. Where do you fall on that question?