Another long and excellent analysis. I can't believe that the media, et al are making so much of the fact that the left wing Dem won over the more centrist when the margin was so small and it represented one specific voting district. Will the Democrats and the following media wake up and realize that the important issue is will they come up with a vibrant policy embracing the elements we all believe in with the differences shown in less dramatic fashion. And that will show in a united front at the voting booth. An undecided voter would be hard put to describe the benefit of voting for either!
I agree that the center-left Dem wing (of which I am part) lacks a clear message. I propose we stand for Make America Work Again. That would include a short list of clear simple(ish) solutions to major problems like democratic backsliding, affordability, climate change, and our fiscal situation. It might include things like a value added tax (as a way to get a carbon tax without calling it that), an energy policy focusing on permitting reform and eliminating subsidies, a simplified health care insurance system that attacked waste and fraud by standardizing administrative costs and yes high provider costs, and a radically simpler tax system.
Gabe seems to mock Haley Stevens' Michigan Hope agenda (https://haleyformi.com/hopeagenda/) but it's way better than every Democratic Party platform. As a party, I think we need to stand against all specialist interests, including our own, to win back working class voters. Newt Gingrich's ten point Contract with an America galvanized the GOP. We need a similar galvanizing message that is both simple and universal.
PS: The whole debate about Citizens United is to ridiculous. The decision (as opposed to the reports of the decision) only held that the government can't restrict a publication naming a candidate close to an election. I happen to think that makes sense and, even if I didn't, note how little the decision actually says. I know it might not be popular with some, but the fantastic Advisory Opinions podcast (https://thedispatch.com/podcast/advisoryopinions/the-island-of-rationality-and-the-first-amendment/) explains it way better than me. For me, the broader point is that no matter what we try to limit the impact of money in politics, money has a way of getting used to do a political message. I doubt even a constitutional amendment allowing restrictions on campaign spending would do much to limit the influence of money in politics.
Jewish and African Americans have already been slapped in the face in these Democratic primaries by people who are best known for working for years with Republicans to strip women, Jews, African Americans and gay people of their rights
I think what you are missing is that the establishment wing of the party has been espousing these ideas for years but don’t deliver. Voters want someone they perceive as a fighter. The fact that Stevens was supported by millions in PAC support fed the perception that she would not truly rock the boat, whereas El-Sayed seems as if he would. Medicare for All is a big deal and if the Democrats had eliminated the filibuster under Obama we could have it now.
I agree that Democratic voters want someone they perceive as a fighter - my only point is that that is more of a perception (what would Abdul El Sayed have accomplished as Senate Minority Leader different than Chuck Schumer?) and comes without many real policy differences. Every Democrat except Sinema and Manchin (neither still in office) is already on record against the filibuster and Joe Biden, as establishment as it gets, called for Supreme Court reforms. I don’t think either of those ideas (or a particular passion for them) really separates the Dem establishment and left wing at this point.
Great read, Gabe! Thanks as usual for the interesting insight! And we need to keep that Filibuster forever! (definitely reform it though, I feel a filibuster should require actually being present and talking because if you really are opposed to something then we are voting for and paying you to put in the actual effort). Also, I LOVE your continued use of footnotes! I learned to love footnotes when reading supreme court decisions back in college and have not looked back!
William Lawrence is such a tool, Republicans spent $1.7 million in the primary just to make sure he would be who their Republican incumbent got to face three months from now.
As for the rest: if Jewish and African Americans are no longer part of the Democratic Party base, they won't be giving it any more money, and the Hezbollah candidates who call Black people "abeed" will have to rely on the college kids and their profs soaked in $2 billion a year of anti-Jewish propaganda for their campaign support
The $2 billion a year comes from the Arab Muslim oil empires. Qatar all by itself tosses over a billion every year at US colleges alone (God knows how much goes to European colleges), and the UAE, KSA and other Arab League nations round out the rest
The intellectual capture was completed just in time for these nations as their oil reserves are running low and the world is turning to Chinese EVs
Another long and excellent analysis. I can't believe that the media, et al are making so much of the fact that the left wing Dem won over the more centrist when the margin was so small and it represented one specific voting district. Will the Democrats and the following media wake up and realize that the important issue is will they come up with a vibrant policy embracing the elements we all believe in with the differences shown in less dramatic fashion. And that will show in a united front at the voting booth. An undecided voter would be hard put to describe the benefit of voting for either!
Another insightful analysis, Gabe!
[Heresy alert]
I agree that the center-left Dem wing (of which I am part) lacks a clear message. I propose we stand for Make America Work Again. That would include a short list of clear simple(ish) solutions to major problems like democratic backsliding, affordability, climate change, and our fiscal situation. It might include things like a value added tax (as a way to get a carbon tax without calling it that), an energy policy focusing on permitting reform and eliminating subsidies, a simplified health care insurance system that attacked waste and fraud by standardizing administrative costs and yes high provider costs, and a radically simpler tax system.
Gabe seems to mock Haley Stevens' Michigan Hope agenda (https://haleyformi.com/hopeagenda/) but it's way better than every Democratic Party platform. As a party, I think we need to stand against all specialist interests, including our own, to win back working class voters. Newt Gingrich's ten point Contract with an America galvanized the GOP. We need a similar galvanizing message that is both simple and universal.
PS: The whole debate about Citizens United is to ridiculous. The decision (as opposed to the reports of the decision) only held that the government can't restrict a publication naming a candidate close to an election. I happen to think that makes sense and, even if I didn't, note how little the decision actually says. I know it might not be popular with some, but the fantastic Advisory Opinions podcast (https://thedispatch.com/podcast/advisoryopinions/the-island-of-rationality-and-the-first-amendment/) explains it way better than me. For me, the broader point is that no matter what we try to limit the impact of money in politics, money has a way of getting used to do a political message. I doubt even a constitutional amendment allowing restrictions on campaign spending would do much to limit the influence of money in politics.
Republicans will win forever, then.
Jewish and African Americans have already been slapped in the face in these Democratic primaries by people who are best known for working for years with Republicans to strip women, Jews, African Americans and gay people of their rights
https://www.axios.com/local/detroit/2022/10/13/gop-unites-conservative-muslims-dearborn-michigan
I think what you are missing is that the establishment wing of the party has been espousing these ideas for years but don’t deliver. Voters want someone they perceive as a fighter. The fact that Stevens was supported by millions in PAC support fed the perception that she would not truly rock the boat, whereas El-Sayed seems as if he would. Medicare for All is a big deal and if the Democrats had eliminated the filibuster under Obama we could have it now.
I agree that Democratic voters want someone they perceive as a fighter - my only point is that that is more of a perception (what would Abdul El Sayed have accomplished as Senate Minority Leader different than Chuck Schumer?) and comes without many real policy differences. Every Democrat except Sinema and Manchin (neither still in office) is already on record against the filibuster and Joe Biden, as establishment as it gets, called for Supreme Court reforms. I don’t think either of those ideas (or a particular passion for them) really separates the Dem establishment and left wing at this point.
Also, in addition to removing the filibuster we need serious Supreme Court reform, something I doubt the establishment has the stomach for.
Very much appreciated the percentages that divide the party almost in half.
Very good analysis and well written. Thank you.
Great read, Gabe! Thanks as usual for the interesting insight! And we need to keep that Filibuster forever! (definitely reform it though, I feel a filibuster should require actually being present and talking because if you really are opposed to something then we are voting for and paying you to put in the actual effort). Also, I LOVE your continued use of footnotes! I learned to love footnotes when reading supreme court decisions back in college and have not looked back!
William Lawrence is such a tool, Republicans spent $1.7 million in the primary just to make sure he would be who their Republican incumbent got to face three months from now.
As for the rest: if Jewish and African Americans are no longer part of the Democratic Party base, they won't be giving it any more money, and the Hezbollah candidates who call Black people "abeed" will have to rely on the college kids and their profs soaked in $2 billion a year of anti-Jewish propaganda for their campaign support
The $2 billion a year comes from the Arab Muslim oil empires. Qatar all by itself tosses over a billion every year at US colleges alone (God knows how much goes to European colleges), and the UAE, KSA and other Arab League nations round out the rest
The intellectual capture was completed just in time for these nations as their oil reserves are running low and the world is turning to Chinese EVs
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Qatari_involvement_in_US_higher_education