The next phase of Trump’s presidency

Time to make some deals!

Yesterday, on President Trump’s 100th day in office, I recapped the seven phases of his second term so far.

Now, it’s time to look at the next phase of the Trump administration: the dealmaking phase.

Trump prides himself on his ability to strike a deal. Those skills will be put to test in at least three ways in the coming weeks:

Trade deals

When Trump reversed himself on his “reciprocal tariff” plan on April 9, he didn’t shelve the policy fully: he merely announced a 90-day pause. When he did so, his top trade adviser Peter Navarro said it would be possible to strike 90 trade deals in the 90-day period; we’re now 21 days in, and no trade deals have been announced ahead of the July 8 deadline.

I say “announced” because Trump claimed, in a Time magazine interview, that he’s already struck 200 trade deals — he’s just keeping them secret:

Q: There’s zero deals so far. Why is that?

No, there’s many deals.

Q: When are they going to be announced?

You have to understand, I’m dealing with all the companies, very friendly countries. We’re meeting with China. We’re doing fine with everybody. But ultimately, I’ve made all the deals.

Q: Not one has been announced yet. When are you going to announce them?

I’ve made 200 deals.

Q: You’ve made 200 deals?

100%.

There is no evidence that there are truly 200 trade deals in the offing, waiting to be announced. In fact, Commerce Secretary Howard Lutnick said Tuesday that only one deal is “done, done, done, done” — although he later acknowledged that even that agreement is not completed. “I need to wait for their prime minister and their parliament to give its approval,” Lutnick said. (He did not reveal the country in question, but it appears it may be India.)

Meanwhile, China continues to deny Trump’s claims that Chinese president Xi Jinping recently called him, or that any tariff negotiations are underway between the two countries.

There is perhaps no greater test of Trump’s dealmaking abilities than his self-imposed deadline to strike hundreds of simultaneous trade deals, with the fate of the global economy hanging in the balance. And yet, Trump continues to negotiate against himself. On Tuesday, he signed an executive order carving out an exception to some tariffs for automobiles and auto parts, amid fears that the import taxes would hurt — not help — domestic manufacturing.

Trump also acknowledged last week that his 145% tariffs on China will “come down substantially,” seemingly promising a reprieve before Beijing has even engaged in negotiations.

Reconciliation deal

Of all his negotiating partners in his second term, Trump has had the easiest time with Republican lawmakers across the table: at nearly every turn, when he has asked them to accept various pieces of legislation, they have done so, even when it contradicts their principles.

But all of that has been mere prelude to the first significant legislative effort of his term: the push for “one big, beautiful bill” that cuts taxes and increases defense and border security spending, among other Trump priorities. The measure is being advanced through the reconciliation process, which allows the majority party to skirt the Senate filibuster.

House committees are beginning to release proposals for their parts of the package — and Republicans are already seeing how hard it will be to forge consensus on the legislation. The Oversight Committee’s plan included a provision to overhaul federal worker pensions; a key Ohio Republican said he would vote against it. The Transportation Committee unveiled a plan that would impose an annual $20 fee on all passenger vehicles (which would go up to $200 for electric vehicles); the provision has already been dropped after backlash from Republicans.

Some of the biggest debates will be over which government spending to slash in order to pay for tax cuts: Republicans are expected to make changes to Medicaid and the food stamps program, although moderate members are balking at the former while the White House is wary of the latter.

It’s a tough math problem to solve — conservatives say they won’t support the package without deep spending cuts, while moderates say they won’t support it with them — at a time when the party has almost no margin for error. Any more than three Republican defections on any House vote is enough to sink a bill.

Ukraine deal

According to Bloomberg, Ukraine is ready to sign a critical minerals deal with the U.S., as early as today. That’s a key step for Washington and Kyiv — though admittedly one that the Trump administration thought would be wrapped up months sooner — but still leaves Trump without the grander agreement he wants for the region: a Russia/Ukraine peace deal.

After three months of negotiating, Trump appears to have lost patience with the process. “The president has devoted 100 days and his very top people to Russia and Ukraine, and if peace is not achieved, it will be because it can’t be achieved. It just cannot,” White House chief of staff Susie Wiles told the New York Post.

Trump told reporters on Sunday that he wants to finish up a deal in “two weeks or less,” although there are few indications that Ukraine’s Volodymyr Zelensky and Russia’s Vladimir Putin are anywhere close to an agreement.

Zelensky has reportedly shot down a proposal that would recognize Russian dominion over Crimea, while Putin is rebuffing any offers that don’t involve Russia taking over more Ukrainian territory.

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For all of Trump’s bluster, his dealmaking record in his first administration was relatively slim. The Abraham Accords, fostering peace between Israel and several of its neighbors, was a genuine accomplishment. But the U.S.-Mexico-Canada Agreement was largely similar to its predecessor NAFTA. (Trump has since violated the USMCA in his second term.) A deal with North Korea never materialized, despite a high-profile meeting with Kim Jong Un.

The three deals above show some of the reasons why Trump has struggled to strike deals at times: negotiating against himself (tariffs), an inattention to details (reconciliation), and impatience (Ukraine). The president will often uncork demands on social media — “Vladimir, STOP!” — but struggle to persuade his interlocutor to take his requests seriously.

The success of Trump’s next 100 days in office could depend on his ability to turn his oft-boasted-about skills as a dealmaker into a string of actual agreements.

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More news to know

The U.S. economy shrank by 0.3% in the first quarter of 2025, according to GDP figures released this morning. That’s compared to a 2.4% increase in the fourth quarter of 2024.

Trump claimed in an interview that Kilmar Abrego Garcia had “MS13” tattooed on his knuckles — as opposed to symbols that some have interpreted as representing the gang.

Elon Musk is not “physically present” at the White House “as much as he was,” Susie Wiles says.

Pete Hegseth announced that he was ending a “Biden initiative” on women, peace, and security … except Trump is the president who signed it into law.

Longtime House Democrats are maneuvering to block AOC from receiving a prime committee spot.

David Hogg may face a vote on his ouster as DNC vice chair (but not for the reason you might think).

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The day ahead

• President Trump will participate in a Cabinet meeting, attend the swearing-in of UK Ambassador Warren Stephens, deliver remarks on the economy, and participate in a NewsNation town hall moderated by Chris Cuomo.

• The Senate will vote on a House-passed resolution to undo a Biden-era regulation setting energy efficiency standards for washing machines and dishwashers. The chamber may also vote on a resolution to undo the national emergency undergirding Trump’s reciprocal tariffs.

• The House will vote on a series of resolutions revoking Biden-era waivers allowing California to set strict vehicle emissions standards.

• The Supreme Court will hear oral arguments in a case on the legality of the nation’s first religious charter school, in Oklahoma. Justice Amy Coney Barrett has recused herself, creating the possibility of a 4-4 tie.