Sleeper races to watch
Let’s take a trip off the beaten path.
Good morning! It’s Thursday, October 10, 2024. Election Day is 26 days away.
More than 3 million people are without power after Hurricane Milton made landfall as a Category 3 storm in Florida last night. I hope everyone in the affected areas is staying safe.
At this point in the election cycle, is anyone else a little tired of hearing about Pennsylvania, Michigan, Wisconsin, and the rest of the battleground states?
The presidential contest, as you all know, is tight as a tick in every single one: per FiveThirtyEight’s averages, neither candidate can boast even a two-point edge in any of the seven tossup states.
At the Senate level, there is somewhat less suspense: Democrats are plainly favored to win many of those same states, but the growing Republican lead in Montana (along with the party’s certain pick-up in West Virginia) gives the GOP the upper hand in the race to 51. Meanwhile, the House, like the presidency, is something close to a 50/50 proposition, although due to a different suite of battleground races — largely concentrated in New York and California, deep-blue states that saw Republican gains in 2022.
You get the picture. With less than a month to go, there is only so much to say about the same races in the same states. (Although that doesn’t mean I won’t have more to say about them in the weeks ahead…)
This morning, I want to do something different: take you all on a trip off the beaten path, to tour around some of this cycle’s sleeper races. These are races that will probably go in a certain direction — but, hey, either party could run the table in November, and if they do, that would probably come with some unexpected pick-ups. So while everyone focuses on the same old states, let’s look at some of the under-discussed contests of 2024 — and prepare for the possible down-ballot upsets coming down the pike.
The independent variable: It’s been 18 years since a Republican lost a statewide race in Nebraska, a ruby-red state that Donald Trump won by 19 percentage points in 2020. And yet, GOP officials are starting to worry about Sen. Deb Fischer (R-NE), who is running for a third term. That’s despite the fact that Fischer doesn’t even have a Democratic opponent — but don’t think she’s running unopposed. Fischer is locked in a surprisingly close race with Dan Osborn, a union leader running as an independent.
Osborn cuts a unique profile: a Navy veteran and industrial mechanic who was fired by Kellogg’s after leading a 77-day strike at his Omaha plant. He boasts a heterodox mix of populist positions, including raising the minimum wage, protecting gun rights, and legalizing marijuana. Polling has been scarce in the contest, but his campaign released an internal poll last week showing him with a 2-point edge.
At the very least, Osborn’s momentum is forcing Republicans to invest in a race they otherwise would have stayed out of; the party’s Senate campaign arm has started advertising in the race, as has a major Republican super PAC. Osborn declined the endorsement of the state Democratic Party, but he’s being boosted by left-leaning super PAC as well, including one with ties to a major liberal dark-money group.
Reality check: This strategy has been tried before — not in Nebraska, but in neighboring Kansas, where Democrats declined to run a candidate and instead pinned their hopes on Independent Greg Orman in the 2014 Senate race. Then, too, polls showed Orman ahead (one survey even gave him a 10-point edge); the Republican incumbent ended up winning by double digits.
The Democratic reach seats: These probably aren’t true “sleeper” races, but they would still be considered upsets if the unexpected candidate won. If Democrats lose the Senate races in West Virginia and Montana — as polls show is likely — and Osborn comes up short in Nebraska, they’d be left with only two real paths to blocking a GOP Senate majority: winning in Florida or Texas.
I’m grouping the states together, but their politics are different: Florida is a former battleground state that has been trending conservative for years now; Texas is a red state that Democrats have been trying (and failing) to put on the board for several cycles. Unlike Osborn, not a single poll has shown Sens. Rick Scott (R-FL) or Ted Cruz (R-TX) trailing their Democratic opponents, former Rep. Debbie Mucarsel-Powell (D-FL) and Rep. Collin Allred — although some surveys have shown the incumbents with slimmer-than-expected advantages.
Democrats are certainly investing in the contests: as Sen. Jon Tester (D-MT) struggles in the polls, the party launched multimillion-dollar TV buys in Florida and Texas last month, looking to seize an advantage anywhere they can. Allred also announced a big fundraising quarter this week: he raked in $30 million — outpacing Cruz.
Reality check: Once again, we’ve seen this play out before: Cruz was also outraised by Beto O’Rourke in 2018, and we know how that ended up. Sometimes, Texas Democrats can seem a bit like Charlie Brown playing football. Each cycle, they say this time will be different — but, um, isn’t that what you said last time?
The East Coast Republicans: The venerable breed that brought us Margaret Chase Smith, Nelson Rockefeller, Mitt Romney, and Susan Collins may be dying — but it ain’t dead yet, as seen in two downballot races this year. One is another sleeper-ish Senate contest in Maryland, where former Republican Gov. Larry Hogan and Democratic county executive Angela Alsobrooks are squaring off.
This race, in deep-blue Maryland, is only competitive because Republicans were able to recruit Hogan — a popular moderate who served two terms as governor. The two parties have spent more than $85 million on the race, as Democrats try to protect an open seat and Republicans spy another possible pick-up.
Meanwhile, in New Hampshire, a Hogan-like governor is retiring in a blue-tinted state — Republican Chris Sununu — and former Republican Sen. Kelly Ayotte is trying to succeed him. The race isn’t getting much attention, even though it’s the cycle’s only even sort-of-competitive gubernatorial contest.1 A Saint Anselm College poll last week found Ayotte with a three-point lead, showing that Granite Staters might be looking to nominate another moderate Republican chief executive.
Reality check: Especially in a presidential year, statewide races tend to follow the top of the ticket. The New Hampshire governor’s race appears more competitive (typically, gubernatorial races are less tied to presidential results than congressional races) — but that’s certainly been the case in Maryland. Hogan started the race with a clear polling lead, but as Election Day has gotten closer, Democrats have come home; a recent Washington Post poll gave Alsobrooks a nine-point lead.
The Freedom Caucus’ new fights: Remember 2022, when right-wing Rep. Lauren Boebert (R-CO) won re-election by just 546 votes in a fairly red district? Well, Boebert has moved to a new district to avoid a repeat. But other House Freedom Caucus members are finding that their aggressive style is leading to unexpectedly close races.
At the top of this list is Rep. Scott Perry (R-PA), the caucus’ former chair. Perry was a key player in Donald Trump’s efforts to overturn the 2020 election — and now he might be paying for it at the ballot box. Perry’s Democratic opponent is a former local TV news anchor, Janelle Stelson, who has been attacking Perry for his votes against bipartisan bills (including measures to house homeless veterans and combat sex trafficking) as she seeks an upset in the reddish district. (There’s a long history of local news anchors — the ultimate familiar faces — performing well in political races.)
Other incumbents in this category include Florida Rep. Anna Paulina Luna and — although he isn’t a member of the Freedom Caucus — and Wisconsin Rep. Derrick Van Orden, two combative Republicans also facing tougher-than-expected Democratic opposition.
Reality check: These are all comfortably Republican seats, so even if the races end up close — as Boebert’s did in 2022 — the incumbents are all still favored to end up re-elected.
More news to know
CBS: U.S. inflation continued to cool in September, latest CPI data shows
NYT: In Interviews, Kamala Harris Continues to Bob and Weave
NBC: Harris’ political operation crosses $1 billion raised for the 2024 election
CNN: Biden held ‘direct,’ 30-minute call with Netanyahu, White House says
Axios: Kremlin refutes Trump denial on sending Putin COVID tests
Politico: As Milton misinformation swells, some Republicans try to course correct
The day ahead
All times Eastern.
President Biden will receive a briefing on the federal response to Hurricanes Milton and Helene in the Situation Room.
VP Harris will join the briefing virtually. She will also participate in the taping of a Univision town hall in Las Vegas and a campaign event in Phoenix.
Former President Trump will deliver remarks at the Detroit Economic Club. Watch at 1 p.m.
Sen. JD Vance will hold a town hall in Greensboro, North Carolina. Watch at 6 p.m.
Former President Obama will make his 2024 campaign trail debut, holding an for Harris in Pittsburgh. Watch at 7 p.m.
The House and Senate are on recess. The Supreme Court has no arguments scheduled. Gov. Tim Walz has nothing on his schedule.
Before I go…
Here’s something interesting: Amid all their dueling podcasts appearances, Kamala Harris and Donald Trump mostly say different things. But they had a striking moment of synchronicity earlier this week:
Harris on the Howard Stern Show, asked if she goes to therapy: “This is my form of therapy right now, Howard.”
Trump on a Los Angeles radio show, as he tells the host to continue the interview after his staff tried to end it: “Some people go to a psychiatrist. I don’t have time, so this is like my therapy.”
Sounds super healthy! Then again, nobody ever said that healthy people run for president…
However, there are two other candidates for Sleeper Gubernatorial Race that seem to be getting closer: Indiana, where Republicans are being forced to spend money to protect Mike Braun (a current senator) against Jennifer McCormick, and Washington, where former Republican Rep. Dave Reichert is following in Tiffany Smiley’s foosteps trying to flip the state.
From time to time (maybe one of the Friday reports) to bring us up to date of the status re some of the close out things to Biden's term such as the military appointments, judgeships , and national monument designations
The NYT headline is why I’ve stopped reading it. They will hold her feet to the fire when they know damn well what another orange guy stint in the Whitehouse will mean for the US and the world.
But it is up to all of us high info voters to do what we can to get out the vote. Whether it’s money or postcards or canvassing or calling/texting, each of us can do something. And that means up and down the ballot. My worst nightmare is a maga trifecta.
Gabe maybe more info on get out the vote groups— what they do and where they focus. And maybe some analysis of which ones seem to be most successful in helping potential voters know their votes really do count.