Hi all,
We are now five days from the 2026 midterms. Can you believe it? I’m excited to run through the tape covering all these races for you over the next few days, before we start diving into the results together.
One thing that’s fascinates me is how this midterm is — at least according to the polls — shaping up to be a lot different than the last midterm election when Trump was in office, in 2018. So, I made a YouTube video about it, digging into all the polling trends that are pointing in a much different direction compared to eight years ago, from approval of Trump’s handling of the economy to his support among key demographic groups.
Some of the numbers are pretty stark. I hope you’ll check it out:
I also touch on some of the themes I wrote about in yesterday’s newsletter, about 2026 potentially shaking up some of the stasis that we’ve come to expect in our modern politics.
But what’s on your mind?
Tomorrow, I’ll be running my last mailbag edition before the midterms … and I want to know what questions you want answered. Are there specific races and candidates you’re curious about? Specific trends you’re trying to understand? Wondering what the midterms will mean for governing in 2026?
I’m all ears.
You can send questions by leaving a comment, clicking “reply” and sending me an email, or by filling out this anonymous form.
I’m excited to see what questions you have as Election Day approaches.
Talk to you tomorrow,
Gabe
Apart from the big but immediate issue of who controls the next Congress, what implications might we draw as to the possible Dem candidates for president in 2028? Who gained, who lost? Also, what might me learn from the turnout as demographic shifts potentially significant for 2028?
What are some of your definitions of what would be considered a “blue wave” and a “blue tsunami?”