Mike Johnson’s Moment of Truth

Congress is back, and so is Wake Up To Politics.

Mike Johnson on his first day as speaker of the House. (Photo by Johnson’s office)

Good morning! It’s Friday, January 3, 2025. Inauguration Day is 17 days away. Welcome to the first Wake Up To Politics of 2025.

I know, I know: Friday is an odd day to dive back into things, but this isn’t just any Friday. Pursuant to Section 2 of the 20th Amendment (“The Congress shall assemble at least once in every year, and such meeting shall begin at noon on the 3d day of January…”), this is the final day of the 118th Congress (the one elected in 2022) and the first day of the 119th Congress (the one elected this past November).

In any other era, that still might not be enough to merit an end-of-week return from a holiday break. The opening day of a new Congress can be interesting for us political geeks, but for the past several decades, they’ve been pretty routine: congressional leaders are elected, members are sworn in, rules packages are finalized, everyone snaps their celebratory photos and moves on. Nothing to write home about.

That blissful approach to ringing in the new legislative year came to an abrupt end in January 2023, when it took a razor-thin Republican majority four days and 15 ballots to elect then-Rep. Kevin McCarthy (R-CA) as speaker of the House. It was the first time in 100 years that a speakership election required multiple ballots.

McCarthy only lasted 269 days on the job, before being ousted by the same recalcitrant conservatives who made his election so difficult in the first place. So here we are, two years after McCarthy’s 2023 battle, and his successor Mike Johnson (R-LA) is dealing with many of the same dynamics.

Like McCarthy, Johnson is facing a slew of rebellious Republicans frustrated by deals he’s cut with Democrats to fund the government. Like McCarthy, he may have to concede some of his power to the group in order to win the gavel. (Warning to Johnson: In McCarthy’s case, one of those concessions ended up proving fatal to his speakership)

One difference? Johnson’s majority is even smaller, giving him a mere one-vote cushion to work with.

Voting will start shortly after 12 p.m. Eastern Time. That’s when we’ll find out if the 119th Congress will have as chaotic an opening day as its predecessor.

But first: let’s run through a quick math lesson, to make sure you can follow the (potential) chaos in the moment. The House, per the Reapportionment Act of 1929, is made up of 435 seats. In November’s elections, 220 were won by Republicans and 215 were won by Democrats, giving Johnson the smallest House majority since 1931.¹

But the chamber is down one member, since former Rep. Matt Gaetz (R-FL) resigned in December after the collapse of his nomination for Attorney General.² That brings us to 219 Republicans, 215 Democrats.

One Republican is on-record against Johnson: Rep. Thomas Massie (R-KY), a libertarian iconoclast. An MIT-trained engineer, Massie has always marched to the beat of his own drum, both inside the Capitol (where he’s been a longtime critic of his own party’s spending habits) and out (where he lives off-the-grid in a solar-powered home he built himself).

Never one to bend to leadership pressure campaigns, he has signaled that he is even less concerned with professional consequences after his wife of three decades passed away last year. “If they thought I had no Fs to give before, I definitely have no Fs to give now,” Massie told the Wall Street Journal.

Massie seems set on opposing Johnson. “You can pull all my fingernails off, you can shove bamboo up them, you can start cutting off my fingers, I am not voting for Mike Johnson tomorrow,” Massie said last night on One America News Network, while being interviewed (ironically enough) by Gaetz, the ringleader of McCarthy’s demise.

That knocks Johnson down to, at most, 218 “yea” votes. To be elected speaker, you have to win a majority of the votes cast for a named candidate. If all 434 members vote for a candidate, that means Johnson needs 218 votes exactly. He cannot afford to lose another Republican vote.

Unfortunately for him, there is roughly 15 more GOP members on the fence, including:

• Indiana Rep. Victoria Spartz, another one of the least predictable Republicans in Congress — she resigned from the formal GOP conference last month — who has said she will only vote for Johnson if he agrees to “structural changes” on spending.

• Texas Rep. Chip Roy, a leadership antagonist who has said “something MUST change” after Johnson rushed through a government funding bill last month over conservative objections.

• Maryland Rep. Andy Harris, the chairman of the House Freedom Caucus (from which many of these rebels reside), who is reportedly annoyed with how funding for Baltimore’s Francis Scott Key Bridge was handled in the spending package.

• Texas Rep. Michael Cloud, who has said that “maintaining the status quo” would “undoubtedly fail Trump’s agenda.”

Other Republican holdouts include Reps. Andy Biggs (AZ), Lauren Boebert (CO), Andrew Clyde (GA), and Eli Crane (AZ), all of whom — like those above — contributed to holding up the McCarthy balloting last Congress.

There is one way for these members to register their objections to Johnson without simply voting against him: they can vote “present,” which is effectively an abstention. As noted above, Johnson only needs a majority of those who vote for a named candidate, which means “present” votes — up to a point — can offer a cushion. (Massie has ruled out this option, but some of the other holdouts could take it.)

Assuming full attendance, here are the scenarios in which Johnson wins the gavel:

• All 219 Republicans vote for him. 434 votes for a candidate… 218 needed to win… Johnson has 219.

• 218 Republicans (all except Massie) vote for him. 434 votes for a candidate… 218 needed… Johnson has 218.

• One Republican (Massie) votes for another candidate, while one Republican votes “present.” 433 votes for a candidate… 217 needed… Johnson has 217.

• Zero Republicans vote for another candidate, while up to three Republicans vote “present.” 433 (if one “present”) / 432 (if two “present”) / 431 (if three “present”) votes for a candidate… 217 / 217 / 216 needed… Johnson has 218 / 217 / 216.

Johnson comes up short in any other combination:

• Massie + one more Republican votes for another candidate. 434 votes for a candidate… 218 needed to win… Johnson has 217.

• Massie votes for another candidate + two Republicans vote “present.” 432 votes for a candidate… 217 needed… Johnson has 216.

• Zero Republicans vote for another candidate + four Republicans vote “present.” 430 votes for a candidate… 216 needed… Johnson has 215.

The sum of all these math equations is that the holdouts wield a lot of leverage this afternoon, just as they did in 2023. One concession they are reportedly seeking is putting Roy in charge of the House Rules Committee, which would give the Freedom Caucus significant sway over which bills reach the House floor.

It’s very possible that as large a concession as that would risk Johnson’s support from the moderate members of his conference, creating whole new math problems to reckon with. Such is the joy of leading a minuscule House Republican majority.

Johnson and his allies are projecting confidence going into the vote, predicting either that Massie will be the only defection or that the speaker will be able to strike a deal with the others without going through too many rounds of voting.

Republicans, after all, face a time crunch none of them want to interfere with: in three days, the House and Senate are supposed to meet to certify President-elect Donald Trump’s victory in a joint session of Congress on January 6th. (McCarthy wasn’t elected speaker until January 7th, so if this year’s balloting lasts as long as it did in 2023, this would begin to be a problem.)

Until the House elects a speaker, the chamber is understood to exist in a “parliamentary state of nature,” as Daniel Schuman put it in First Branch Forecast. From the time the old Congress dissolves until a speaker is chosen, the House is operating without any formal rules — or even any members. (The speaker, once elected, swears in the other 434 House members, who then adopt a rules package. Until then, all of the members are technically voting as members-elect.)

As the legislative maven Kacper Surdy notes, there would be ways to move forward with a January 6th certification before picking a permanent speaker — but the point here is that none of the Republicans involved (all of whom are Trump allies) want to risk it getting that far. That provides a forcing mechanism to come to a deal — and quickly — that was lacking in 2023.

Certainly, Trump himself doesn’t want to risk any funny business surrounding January 6th (a newfound stance of his, I should add). The former-and-future president endorsed Johnson earlier this week and gave him another boost this morning: “Good luck today for Speaker Mike Johnson, a fine man of great ability, who is very close to having 100% support,” Trump wrote on Truth Social.

Trump’s backing has certainly helped Johnson consolidate support, but it’s unclear if it will be enough to win over his detractors — or whether Trump is willing to expend political capital to push Johnson across the finish line. Historically, Trump has been a fickle friend to Republican House speakers, barely lifting a finger to help McCarthy in January (or October) 2023.

The president-elect has reportedly been phoning the GOP holdouts, a development that Politico first reported as Trump “throwing more weight” behind Johnson. But, according to Punchbowl News, Trump “did not try to pressure” Roy in a call with the Texas congressman — a sign that Johnson is more or less on his own as the future of his speakership hangs in the balance.

The first day of a new Congress is often likened to the first day of school. But, to be clear, it’s more middle school than grad school: complete with cliques, grudges, and petty spats, all of which will likely be on display today as the representative body of the world’s most powerful country gathers once again in all its glory.

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More news to know

Meanwhile, across the Capitol: John Thune Takes Charge in the Senate, Ushering in a New Leadership Era (NYT)

New member to watch: Transgender trailblazer Sarah McBride heads to her debut in Congress, hoping for a touch of grace (AP)

Breaking this morning: Biden blocks U.S. Steel takeover by Japan’s Nippon Steel, citing national security (CNBC)

Coming next week: Biden to visit New Orleans Monday, in wake of Bourbon Street attack (CBS)

Another ongoing election: Schumer endorses Ben Wikler for Democratic National Committee chairman (WaPo)

The latest from Seoul: South Korea’s Impeached President Fends Off Arrest Attempt Over Martial-Law Decree (WSJ)

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The day ahead

All times Eastern.

President Biden will award the Medal of Valor to eight first responders and the Medal of Honor to seven Korea and Vietnam veterans. (Biden is on a bit of a medal kick as his term winds to an end: he also awarded the Presidential Citizens Medal to Liz Cheney and 19 others yesterday.)

The Senate, unlike the House, is a continuous body — which means its rules roll over from Congress to Congress, making Opening Day a little simpler. The final session of the 118th Senate will gavel in and out at 11:45 a.m., and then the first session of the 119th will convene at 12 p.m. Vice President Harris will swear in the new senators, Sen. John Thune (R-SD) will make his first remarks as Senate Majority Leader, and Sen. Chuck Grassley (R-IA) will be elected as Senate president pro tempore³, among other housekeeping business.

The House might not be as humdrum, as outlined above. The 118th House will meet for the last time at 11 a.m. and then promptly adjourn. The 119th House will convene at 12 p.m., with the speaker election taking place shortly after. If a speaker is elected, the chamber will move on to swearing in its members and voting for the rules package. If no candidate receives a majority, the chamber will keep voting for a speaker until someone is elected.

The best way to follow all the action is by watching on C-SPAN: live video here will start at noon Eastern Time. On special days, like the first day of a new Congress, C-SPAN’s cameras are given greater access to roam freely throughout the House chamber — giving us an extra close-up view of democracy in action.

The Supreme Court has nothing on its schedule.

1. Want to know how slim that 1931 majority was? Here’s how slim. After the November 1930 elections, Republicans won 218 seats, Democrats won 216 seats, a third party won 1 seat, giving the GOP an even slighter edge than they have now.

But in those days, 13 months passed between the elections and the new Congress taking office. In that time, an extraordinary 14 House members-elect died; Democrats won enough of the resulting special elections that, by the time Congress convened in December 1931, they boasted 219 seats to Republicans’ 214. (With one third-party member and one vacancy.) The majority was so small that it changed hands between the election and the new Congress!

2. He resigned from 118th Congress and preemptively signaled his intent to resign from 119th Congress as well. Gaetz has mused about showing up today to vote in the speaker election and then resigning, but there’s no sign he plans on actually doing that.

3. That’s mostly a ceremonial position, but it places Grassley three heartbeats away from the presidency (if the president, vice president, and speaker of the House all die). Grassley is 91 years old.