F**k. I really thought that the dems would have leverage by forcing this issue. I really appreciate this post to lay out all the considerations at play here. But it is so discouraging to continue to feel that there will be no way to rein in this administration.
Guessing that Gabe leans left and struggles to write a column without bias either way.
Also guessing that he would make more money, in the short term, if he just catered to all his readers looking for liberal confirmation bias. Long term he has a winning strategy which will ultimately see him rivaling Tucker Carlson's influence.
Clarifies the point to Dems it isn't obvious that voting against the CR won't backfire. This administration currently has a lot of levers, obstruction just to be obstructionists may be short-term pleasure for long-term loss (see Grigrich-led shutdown)
I think it is called atari. The Dems are in a situation where they cannot win. The CR is a continuing resolution in name only. It contains important changes to the previous funding bill and cedes enormous power to the president. It’s very dangerous. On the other hand, not passing it also cedes enormous power to the president, as Gabe has pointed out, and is also very dangerous. The Dems are boxed in. They can pick their poison but it’s going to be poison whatever they pick. This is how the takeover happens.
"In other words, if you thought the second Trump administration has been chaotic so far: just wait until it’s put in charge of presiding over a shutdown."
Well, hate to say it, but maybe that is what has to happen. I don't see the Democrats coming out on top at this point - GOP will lie and says it's their fault. Their supporters (me) are already angry that are not taking a strong stand. My applause does go to Al Green for calling them out regarding a cut to Medicaid.
Where the heck were the rest of them?
From Gabe's post yesterday - "People in power often don’t want you to understand these sorts of maneuvers, because it allows them to hide what they’re really doing." Well, it's time that we all get to see the truth.
Best course for the Dems. I’d say vote Yea on allowing the CR to come to a vote. Then vote Nay on the bill itself. Give the Reps a lot of rope and then let them hang.
It appears the Dems are damned if they do and damned if they don't. What worries me is that several indicators appear to show we could be heading into a recession. Right now it should be easy to pin this on the administration's policies. If the Dems don't help pass the CR, I have no doubt that the President will be putting the blame on any downturn in the economy on the shutdown which he'll say is the Dems fault at every opportunity he gets. Whether that's correct or not, many folks may come to believe it.
Not a huge Schumer fan but when I heard him last night, I changed my mind. Frustrating that the full story on executive power during a shutdown is absent except for here, so kudos to Gabe.
Thanks for the information. I appreciate the effort that went into compiling it. My wife works for NPS, so a level-headed assessment of where we are right now is welcome, if disturbing, content.
This was really well researched but it seems there are some really strong opinions otherwise. What about getting a a new Democratic leader for the Senate. . Shutting it down may be the right thing for democrats and the country. What can you find on that? Someone other than Schumer would breath some life back into the Senate Dems and the party. Yes or No?
Except he completely left out the whole aspect how the CR codifies into law all the things that dump is trying to do which takes away a lot of power to challenge in court because now he won't be breaking the law while doing what he's doing. The government is already being shut down and they're going to continue their assault whether the CR was passed or not but now Dems have given them legal cover to do so by not filibustering the CR cloture vote and legally gifting the administration these powers
It doesn't "codify into law all the things dump is trying to do". The tariffs scam is not part of it.
What you call "codifying" are these things: the tariffs scam (again, not part of the CR and stands alone) and the fact that redundant language forbidding Trump from doing what he's already forbidden from doing by the Constitution was not made part of the CR.
It's a continuing resolution. Aside from some areas, it keeps funding at 2024 levels: which pissed off many House Republicans who wanted to make deep cuts in it. The main problem with it was its cuts to DC, but those are being reversed:
Thank you for this well researched, useful and detailed post. I am with those who argue that Trump in his more empowered second term, is attempting to install a far-right ethno-nationalist (that is fascist) dictatorship on the lines of an extension of Orban's Hungary. There will be no free and fair elections in 2026 and 2028. This sounds incredible, unless you also note the context that inequality and all-debt (private+public+corporate+financial-sector) is at 1930 levels as measured as % GDP. Trump has been enabled to ensure no modern FDR type reforms. If democracy can no longer protect wealth then dictatorship will, to put it bluntly. In this context blocking Trump's move towards dictatorship as early as possible is important, before it can entrench itself. A government shutdown would have brought Trump over-reach forward in time, so exposing his intentions, and creating a forceful resistance.
Thank you for this well researched, useful and detailed post. I am with those who argue that Trump - in his much more empowered second term - is attempting to install a far-right ethno-nationalist (that is fascist) dictatorship on the lines of an extension of Orban's Hungary. There will be no free and fair elections in 2026 and 2028. This sounds incredible, unless you also note the context that inequality and all-debt (private+public+corporate+financial-sector) is at 1930 levels as measured as % GDP. Trump has been enabled to ensure no modern FDR type reforms that would impact the wealthy. If democracy can no longer protect wealth then dictatorship will, to put it bluntly. In this context blocking Trump's move towards dictatorship as early as possible is important, before it can entrench itself. A government shutdown would have brought Trump over-reach forward in time, exposing his intentions, and creating a forceful resistance that would still have freedom of movement to act. The Democrats need to protest loudly and definitely not cooperate.
“The House GOP’s CR gives Trump & Musk a blank check to steal YOUR taxpayer dollars,” Senate Appropriations Committee vice chair Patty Murray (D-MA) wrote on X recently. “I won’t vote to help two billionaires pick winners & losers.”
F**k. I really thought that the dems would have leverage by forcing this issue. I really appreciate this post to lay out all the considerations at play here. But it is so discouraging to continue to feel that there will be no way to rein in this administration.
Guessing that Gabe leans left and struggles to write a column without bias either way.
Also guessing that he would make more money, in the short term, if he just catered to all his readers looking for liberal confirmation bias. Long term he has a winning strategy which will ultimately see him rivaling Tucker Carlson's influence.
Why does it matter either way, Nana?
Be aware of why he might want to scare you.
Excellent read
Clarifies the point to Dems it isn't obvious that voting against the CR won't backfire. This administration currently has a lot of levers, obstruction just to be obstructionists may be short-term pleasure for long-term loss (see Grigrich-led shutdown)
I think it is called atari. The Dems are in a situation where they cannot win. The CR is a continuing resolution in name only. It contains important changes to the previous funding bill and cedes enormous power to the president. It’s very dangerous. On the other hand, not passing it also cedes enormous power to the president, as Gabe has pointed out, and is also very dangerous. The Dems are boxed in. They can pick their poison but it’s going to be poison whatever they pick. This is how the takeover happens.
That is the way I read it
"In other words, if you thought the second Trump administration has been chaotic so far: just wait until it’s put in charge of presiding over a shutdown."
Well, hate to say it, but maybe that is what has to happen. I don't see the Democrats coming out on top at this point - GOP will lie and says it's their fault. Their supporters (me) are already angry that are not taking a strong stand. My applause does go to Al Green for calling them out regarding a cut to Medicaid.
Where the heck were the rest of them?
From Gabe's post yesterday - "People in power often don’t want you to understand these sorts of maneuvers, because it allows them to hide what they’re really doing." Well, it's time that we all get to see the truth.
Best course for the Dems. I’d say vote Yea on allowing the CR to come to a vote. Then vote Nay on the bill itself. Give the Reps a lot of rope and then let them hang.
It appears the Dems are damned if they do and damned if they don't. What worries me is that several indicators appear to show we could be heading into a recession. Right now it should be easy to pin this on the administration's policies. If the Dems don't help pass the CR, I have no doubt that the President will be putting the blame on any downturn in the economy on the shutdown which he'll say is the Dems fault at every opportunity he gets. Whether that's correct or not, many folks may come to believe it.
Looks like Schumer saw this newsletter. Thanks for helping keep the government open!
Not a huge Schumer fan but when I heard him last night, I changed my mind. Frustrating that the full story on executive power during a shutdown is absent except for here, so kudos to Gabe.
This is why Substack is a necessity.
My thoughts exactly Ryan! Sometimes I wonder if Gabe is merely a harbinger of American politics or if we aren’t the only ones reading his daily subs 😎
Thanks for the information. I appreciate the effort that went into compiling it. My wife works for NPS, so a level-headed assessment of where we are right now is welcome, if disturbing, content.
This was really well researched but it seems there are some really strong opinions otherwise. What about getting a a new Democratic leader for the Senate. . Shutting it down may be the right thing for democrats and the country. What can you find on that? Someone other than Schumer would breath some life back into the Senate Dems and the party. Yes or No?
If you'd read the article, you'd have seen that he addressed all of your concerns.
Except he completely left out the whole aspect how the CR codifies into law all the things that dump is trying to do which takes away a lot of power to challenge in court because now he won't be breaking the law while doing what he's doing. The government is already being shut down and they're going to continue their assault whether the CR was passed or not but now Dems have given them legal cover to do so by not filibustering the CR cloture vote and legally gifting the administration these powers
It doesn't "codify into law all the things dump is trying to do". The tariffs scam is not part of it.
What you call "codifying" are these things: the tariffs scam (again, not part of the CR and stands alone) and the fact that redundant language forbidding Trump from doing what he's already forbidden from doing by the Constitution was not made part of the CR.
It's a continuing resolution. Aside from some areas, it keeps funding at 2024 levels: which pissed off many House Republicans who wanted to make deep cuts in it. The main problem with it was its cuts to DC, but those are being reversed:
https://bsky.app/profile/fritschner.bsky.social/post/3lkeqeqetr223
Sadly, I agree with you. Voting for the CR is most likely the lesser evil.
Yeah. After further thoughts they really have no choice.
https://www.wired.com/story/elon-musk-has-wanted-the-government-shut-down/
Magnificently researched and written.
Please correct Hickenlooper's political party, obviously just a typo.
Hard to tell which party he's on these days
And maybe even harder to tell that the Democrats are a party!
"Sen. John Hickenlooper (R-CO)" - Senator Hickenlooper is a member of the Democrat Party from Colorado, not Republican. . Just a typo. Unless??? :)
Terrifying prospect. F us All😵💫😵💫😵💫
Thank you for this well researched, useful and detailed post. I am with those who argue that Trump in his more empowered second term, is attempting to install a far-right ethno-nationalist (that is fascist) dictatorship on the lines of an extension of Orban's Hungary. There will be no free and fair elections in 2026 and 2028. This sounds incredible, unless you also note the context that inequality and all-debt (private+public+corporate+financial-sector) is at 1930 levels as measured as % GDP. Trump has been enabled to ensure no modern FDR type reforms. If democracy can no longer protect wealth then dictatorship will, to put it bluntly. In this context blocking Trump's move towards dictatorship as early as possible is important, before it can entrench itself. A government shutdown would have brought Trump over-reach forward in time, so exposing his intentions, and creating a forceful resistance.
Thank you for this well researched, useful and detailed post. I am with those who argue that Trump - in his much more empowered second term - is attempting to install a far-right ethno-nationalist (that is fascist) dictatorship on the lines of an extension of Orban's Hungary. There will be no free and fair elections in 2026 and 2028. This sounds incredible, unless you also note the context that inequality and all-debt (private+public+corporate+financial-sector) is at 1930 levels as measured as % GDP. Trump has been enabled to ensure no modern FDR type reforms that would impact the wealthy. If democracy can no longer protect wealth then dictatorship will, to put it bluntly. In this context blocking Trump's move towards dictatorship as early as possible is important, before it can entrench itself. A government shutdown would have brought Trump over-reach forward in time, exposing his intentions, and creating a forceful resistance that would still have freedom of movement to act. The Democrats need to protest loudly and definitely not cooperate.
Is there any fact in her statement?:
“The House GOP’s CR gives Trump & Musk a blank check to steal YOUR taxpayer dollars,” Senate Appropriations Committee vice chair Patty Murray (D-MA) wrote on X recently. “I won’t vote to help two billionaires pick winners & losers.”