A key primary splitting the MAGA movement

GOP primary battles are now about Trump vs. Trumpier.

Jun 18, 2024

Can you tell the central issue in today’s Virginia primary? (Photo by the John McGuire campaign)

So far, this cycle has been a relatively positive one for House incumbents facing primary challenges.

Compared to 2022 — when 14 House members were defeated by primary opponents, a 30-year record — only one lawmaker has been denied renomination this year.1

It hasn’t been for lack of trying, to be clear. As NBC’s Adam Wollner notes, a string of House members have scraped by with under 60% of the vote in primaries this year, facing credible challengers that they were (just barely) able to fend off. Members in that category include Reps. Mike Bost (R-IL), Tony Gonzales (R-TX), William Timmons (R-SC), and Steve Womack (R-AR), who faced challenges from the right; Rep. Danny Davis (D-IL), who faced a challenge from the left; Rep. Rob Menendez, Jr. (D-NJ), whose powerful father is under indictment; and Rep. Nancy Mace (R-SC), who faced former Speaker Kevin McCarthy’s wrath after voting to oust him.

On the Republican side, where most of these contests have taken place, there have been two notable features of primary battles this year (besides their losing streak):

1. Other GOP House members have been unusually willing to endorse against their colleagues. It used to be exceedingly rare for members of Congress to embrace primary challenges against other members of their own party. This year, Bost, Gonzales, Timmons, and Mace all saw colleagues endorse their primary opponents. This shouldn’t be too surprising, considering the level of Republican infighting that has been on display throughout the 118th Congress.

Many of the most fractious battles are in some way linked to last year’s vote to remove McCarthy, with the ex-speaker’s allies trying to exact revenge against his rivals (like Mace) while the ringleader of his ouster (Florida’s Matt Gaetz) tries to push out other perceived “RINOs” (like Bost and Gonzales). The ease with which Republicans have endorsed challenges against their fellow members is also a revealing sign of weak leadership — again, not surprising considering Speaker Mike Johnson entered the job with little leadership experience. Johnson has asked the members endorsing primary challenges to “knock it off,” a message that went largely unheeded.

2. The challenges have been more personal than ideological. As recently as 2022, there were a spate of Republican primaries that were fought along Trump vs. anti-Trump lines. By 2024, with Trump fully in control of the party, the only ideological split in the GOP is Trump vs. Trumpier. It’s a sign of how vanquished the internal resistance to the ex-president has become within the GOP, with primary candidates almost all swearing their fealty to him, no matter what faction of the party they would traditionally belong to.

Without Trump as a dividing line anymore, most of the primary squabbles come back to something personal, oftentimes support or opposition to the McCarthy ouster.

A high-profile House primary today brings together both of these themes.

The incumbent, Rep. Bob Good (R-VA), is as conservative as it comes: he is the chair of the House Freedom Caucus, the group of right-wing members who have been causing trouble for Republican speakers for years.

Rather than any ideological failing, Good is in trouble because he has found himself crosswise with two Republican power-brokers: Trump, after he endorsed Ron DeSantis in this year’s presidential primary,2 and McCarthy, after he joined the “Gaetz Eight” who voted for the Californian’s ouster.

With the former president and the former speaker endorsing Good’s opponent — state Sen. John McGuire, who was present on January 6th (but outside of the Capitol) — the floodgates have opened for other House members to do so. At least nine of Good’s colleagues have backed McGuire, either out of loyalty to Trump or McCarthy. Even one member of the Good-led Freedom Caucus, Rep. Warren Davidson (R-NC), is supporting McGuire; so is the Republican Main Street Partnership, a group that traditionally backs center-leaning Republicans.

If it seems odd that a centrist GOP group is backing a firebrand candidate who was outside the Capitol on January 6th, then remember: this isn’t about ideology. It’s all personal.

No primary better encapsulates the Trump vs. Trumpier phenomenon than the fight between Good and McGuire in Virginia’s 5th district.3 Although Trump is backing McGuire, Good’s website for a time included Trump under the section “Who’s Supporting Bob.” In smaller print, it read: “Endorsement from 2022 Election.” (Trump sent Good a cease-and-desist letter.) Both candidates have fallen over each other for the appearance of Trump’s support — including, literally, right in front of him. Both Good and McGuire traveled to New York last month to attend the former president’s criminal trial; they reportedly began sniping at each other in a backroom, which one news outlet Politico referred to as Trump’s “own personal Virginia primary debate.”

The race has split warriors from across the MAGA movement. Gaetz and former Trump strategist Steve Bannon are backing Good, as are Trump congressional allies like Sens. Mike Lee (R-UT) and Rick Scott (R-FL). Lawmakers like Rep. Marjorie Taylor Greene (R-GA), meanwhile, have joined Trump in rallying behind McGuire, who she called “the true MAGA, the true Trumper loyalist” at an event this month.

This excerpt from Politico gives you an idea of how acidic things have become within the House Republican Conference:

In the run-up to primary day, the district was blanketed by competing Good vs. McGuire events. More than two dozen Hill GOP staffers led by Rep. William Timmons (R-S.C.) chartered a bus from Washington on Saturday to meet with and campaign for McGuire, a former Navy SEAL.
It was an unorthodox move by Timmons, but a clear revenge play. Good had backed the primary challenger Timmons defeated just a few days prior, so the South Carolina lawmaker decided to personally tell Virginia voters about their representative’s polarizing reputation within his party.

Not exactly a great sign for a House majority when members are endorsing dueling primary challenges against each other. To make things even more personal, per Politico, Good’s Republican colleagues apparently have a nickname they use about him behind his back: “Bob Bad.” Maturity has never been Washington’s strong suit.

More House primaries to watch this year:

Also today: Rep. Tom Cole (R-OK), a longtime congressman and the chair of the powerful House Appropriations Committee, faces a challenge from a local businessman who has poured millions of his own dollars into the race.
Next week: A battle between Rep. Jamaal Bowman (D-NY) and Westchester County Executive George Latimer has exposed the Democratic Party’s growing rift over Israel. Bowman has criticized Israel’s war against Hamas, while Latimer has been endorsed by the pro-Israel group AIPAC.4
In August: Another member of the “Squad,” Rep. Cori Bush (D-MO), faces a primary challenge partially stemming from tensions over Israel.

More news to know.

Daybook.

White House: President Biden will host an event marking the 12th anniversary of the Obama-era Deferred Action for Childhood Arrivals (DACA) program, which shielded from deportation immigrants who came to the U.S. illegally as minors. During the event, Biden is expected to announce another executive action in the same vein: a new program that would offer legal status to the undocumented spouses of American citizens, a step which would protect about 490,000 immigrants from deportation.

Later in the day, Biden will hold a campaign fundraiser in McLean, Virginia, before traveling to his vacation house in Rehoboth Beach, Delaware.

Vice President Harris will travel to Atlanta, Georgia, her second visit to the key battleground state in less than a week. She will participate in an event on gun violence and a campaign event marking Juneteenth.

Congress: The Senate will vote on two judicial confirmations and hold a procedural vote on the House-passed Fire Grants and Safety Act. Democrats are also expected to seek unanimous consent to pass a bill banning bump stocks in response to last week’s Supreme Court decision; Republicans are likely to object.

The House is out for the week.

Supreme Court: No opinions coming from the justices until Thursday.

Thanks for reading — that’s all I have for you today. As always, if you have any questions or feedback, you can leave a comment or reach me at gabe@wakeuptopolitics.com.

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Have a great day!

And, even then, the incumbent lost to another incumbent. Rep. Barry Moore (R-AL) defeated Rep. Jerry Carl (R-AL) in a member-on-member primary brought on by redistricting.

Bold move! He was one of only five Republicans in Congress to do so.

Fun Virginia’s 5th district fact: The district’s very first House election in 1789 was also a fractious battle, between Founding Fathers James Madison and James Monroe. It is the only congressional election in history where two future presidents have run against each other. (Madison won.)

It is ironic that Bowman and Good are the two House incumbents most vulnerable to primary challenges this year — because they both entered Congress after beating incumbents in primary challenges. Bowman ousted former House Foreign Affairs Committee chair Eliot Engel (D-NY), while Good defeated former Rep. Denver Riggleman (R-VA)