12 thoughts about Tim Walz

Congressman Walz > Governor Walz.

As you’ve probably heard, Minnesota Gov. Tim Walz has been named the Democratic vice presidential nominee. The news first broke on CNN yesterday morning, and was then confirmed by Vice President Kamala Harris before the new ticket appeared together at a rally in Philadelphia.

Here, in no particular order, are my thoughts on the pick:

#1: Wow, can things change fast. Exactly five weeks ago, Walz — in his capacity as chairman of the Democratic Governors Association — was standing outside the White House, attesting to President Biden’s fitness after his debate disaster. In the short period since, Biden has left the race, Harris has quickly spun up a campaign, and Walz beat out several better-known contenders to become her running mate.

In the early days after Biden’s exit, Harris’ VP shortlist was thought to consist of Kentucky Gov. Andy Beshear, North Carolina Gov. Roy Cooper, Arizona Sen. Mark Kelly, and Pennsylvania Gov. Josh Shapiro. Walz, boosted by a few well-timed cable news hits, quickly emerged from relative obscurity to join the list; then, even after he rose to become one of the two finalists, it still seemed like Shapiro had the inside track until a few hours before the announcement. “It’s been a bit of a whirlwind,” as Harris herself said last night.

#2: Walz has a compelling biography, one that departs from the Democratic Party norm in several important ways. He grew up in rural Nebraska and attended Chadron State College and Minnesota State University, Mankato. (Before Biden/Harris, no Democratic ticket had lacked an Ivy League graduate since 1984.) He served for 24 years as an enlisted soldier in the National Guard. (Democrats haven’t had a veteran on their national ticket since John Kerry in 2004. About three-quarters of the veterans currently serving in Congress are Republicans.)

He’s a former teacher, not a lawyer. (Every Democratic presidential and vice presidential candidate since 1980 has attended law school.¹) On top of that, he was a state-championship-winning high school football coach. (I couldn’t find any data on this one, but the only politician-coaches who come to mind — Jim Jordan and Tommy Tuberville — are Republicans.)

#3: All of that matters because it tells you what kind of voters Harris is trying to target with the pick. Pundits sometimes talk about the “beer track” vs. the “wine track,” as a shorthand for working-class and upper-class voters, respectively. (Ted Kennedy described the same divide as “Dunkin’ Donuts” vs. “Starbucks” voters.) Democrats have often found success when both tracks are represented on their tickets: Barack Obama, for example, was a “wine track” candidate who tapped “beer track” Biden as his running mate. Then, “Scranton Joe” did the opposite by selecting Harris, a San Francisco liberal. Now it’s Harris’ turn for some track-balancing, which is why she turned to Walz.

Call me cynical, but I don’t think it’s coincidence that Walz was wearing a t-shirt and a camouflage hat in the video of Harris calling him to ask him to join the ticket.² The New York Times profiled Walz as an “Alpha Male Democrat” way back in 2007, and that’s exactly the persona Harris’ team is trying to play into today.

#4: The problem is, while Walz may have the look and résumé of a “beer track” candidate, his actual electoral record among blue-collar voters is decidedly mixed. His political career began in a red-leaning, rural congressional district, where he unseated a six-term Republican incumbent. As a congressman, he was ranked the seventh-most bipartisan House member, working with Republicans on bills to ban congressional insider trading and limit veteran suicides.

Congressman Walz also broke with his party repeatedly, siding with Republicans on “at least a dozen” measures to chip away at Obamacare and voting to hold then-Attorney General Eric Holder in contempt of Congress.³ All of that allowed him to win the competitive district six times, including in 2016, at the same time as Donald Trump won it by 15 percentage points.

But Governor Walz has been a different story. In the State House, he has been best known for pushing through an expansive legislative agenda, from legalizing marijuana to restricting gun access. And he has paid an electoral tax for his newly progressive persona. As NBC’s Steve Kornacki notes, Walz in 2022 performed poorly in blue-collar Minnesota counties, the exact types of places Democrats are hoping he will appeal to. You’ll hear a lot of Democrats boasting about Walz flipping a rural district blue in 2006. But, the reality is that — much more recently, and with a much different policy platform — he lost that same district, by seven percentage points, in his 2022 re-elect.

#5: Walz’s inability to overperform the Democratic baseline in Minnesota is a stark contrast to Shapiro, Harris’ VP runner-up. While Walz’s 2022 margin of victory was identical to Biden’s in Minnesota in 2020, Shapiro out-performed the president’s Pennsylvania margin by 13 percentage points in the same cycle. Yes, the two races were different (Shapiro had the good fortune to face an especially weak opponent) — but, even now, according to Morning Consult, Shapiro’s net approval rating in Pennsylvania is 12 points higher than Walz’s in Minnesota… despite the fact that the former is a tossup state, and the latter is comfortably Democratic territory.

One of Harris’ biggest liabilities in this election is that voters consider her to be even more liberal than Biden, who they already considered to be too liberal. Shapiro, with his crossover appeal to Trump voters and breaks with Democratic orthodoxy on issues like school vouchers, had both the electoral and policy record to help address that vulnerability. Congressman Walz did, too — but Governor Walz has taken stances that will only help feed into it.⁴

Shapiro wouldn’t have guaranteed a victory in Pennsylvania — but there’s just no getting around the fact that he’s ridiculously popular in an incredibly important state, even more popular than Walz is in the less important, less competitive Minnesota.

#6: Still, Shapiro would have brought risks to the ticket as well. In the end, the decision over Shapiro was a cold cost-benefit calculation: was the support he’d bring Harris in Pennsylvania more important than the enthusiasm he’d lose her among progressives? For the first time in years, all factions of the Democratic Party are aligned, as signified by the support Walz has received from everyone from Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez to Joe Manchin. Shapiro, whose pro-Israel rhetoric has rankled progressives, would not have received such unanimous praise.

Democrats have spent most of the post-Obama era divided and demoralized; in the last few weeks, they have been strikingly united and enthusiastic. Harris may have decided that it just wasn’t worth giving that up to spend a significant chunk of her short campaign litigating Shapiro’s record on Israel (not to mention other skeletons in his closet, like his office settling a sexual harassment complaint against a top aide or his ruling a controversial case a suicide as attorney general).

#7: Many Democrats have been encouraging comparisons between the Harris/Walz ticket and the Obama/Biden pairing — another time a trailblazing candidate elevated an experienced, white male running mate (obviously to eventual success). But as both parties race to define the largely unknown Walz, Democrats better hope that a better comparison doesn’t end up being their own rival ticket, Trump and Vance.

After all, in selecting Vance and Walz, both Trump and Harris selected the VP candidate that the other most wanted them to, looking past contenders that the other party feared more. Both did so, to some degree, out of fear of their own party bases, a reminder of the power a small group of activists hold over both parties.

They also both seem to have done so out of confidence in their own chances. “We are the underdogs in this race,” Harris declared yesterday in Philadelphia — but selecting Walz, like Trump picking Vance, does not signal that mentality. Both selections signify candidates who, wielding razor-thin polling leads at the time of their VP picks, feel they don’t need to throw a bone to a key group of swing voters (suburban women or voters of color, in Trump’s case; Pennsylvanians or Arizonans, in Harris’) in order to win.

Indeed, according to The Times, Harris’ decision was made partly out of confidence that she could win with any of the VP candidates by her side. Trump clearly felt the same when he picked Vance — and we have seen how well that’s gone: the Vance rollout has stumbled, with Democrats cherrypicking his most extreme comments (as Republicans will do with Walz), and Trump’s polling lead has quickly evaporated.

#8: Unfortunately for Trump and Harris, it takes more than party unity to win an election — neither side is large enough to win off the strength of its partisans alone, however enthusiastic they might be. Matthew Yglesias, author of the Substack newsletter “Slow Boring,” wrote in 2021 that every Democratic office should have a Post-it note hanging that says, “the median voter is a 50-something white person who didn’t go to college and lives in an unfashionable suburb.”

Shapiro’s record at winning over those voters is simply better than Walz’s, despite how the Harris team is (somewhat disingenuously) attempting to present the Minnesota governor. (If he can’t even win over blue-collar voters in his own state, how is he supposed to do so in Pennsylvania or Wisconsin?)

Harris’ first presidential campaign, in 2019, partially collapsed because she lost sight of the median voter in that primary, chasing progressive support and online virality and forgetting (as the Biden campaign recognized) that “Twitter is not real life.” The biggest worry for Democrats with the Walz pick should be that Harris, once again, is chasing Twitter support rather than engineering her campaign to persuade a narrow slice of must-win voters. The question Democrats have to ask themselves is this: if Jamaal Bowman and the DSA are ecstatic over your VP pick, should alarm bells be ringing about how they’re being perceived by independent voters?⁵

#9: Then again, party unity ain’t nothing. And, in a campaign, having fun is also important. It was striking to see Harris and Walz appear before a cheering crowd of 14,000 last night — an energetic reception that Biden certainly wasn’t receiving on the campaign trail — and it’s not hard to see why Harris wants to keep that up. Picking Walz is an assurance that she’ll keep the good vibes going. (And remember: enthusiasm begets enthusiasm. Voters like to pick a winner. If a swing voters turns on the TV and sees a screaming crowd, they’re more likely to pay attention.)

Walz himself got at this point in his speech: “Thank you for bringing back the joy,” he said to Harris, who clearly hopes he will do the same. Harris is tapping Walz to be an attack dog, yes (see: “these guys are weird”) — but also a happy warrior, in the mold of his fellow Minnesotan, Hubert Humphrey. If you watched the Harris-Walz rally on mute, you would have seen two politicians genuinely enjoying themselves: smiling, laughing, and soaking in the adoration of a raucous crowd. (Walz, who has never before given a speech big enough to need a teleprompter, seemed overwhelmed by it all at times.) That can pay dividends in politics.

#10: A VP pick isn’t just about number-crunching. There’s also a qualitative element to it: these people are going to be campaigning together for the next 90 days and then — they hope — governing together for four or eight years. It helps if they like each other. According to several accounts, Harris clicked with Walz during their interview and didn’t click with Shapiro during his. Chemistry can count for a lot, especially in an expedited process like this one.

Something else that has become clear in the after-action reports: Shapiro was seen as too ambitious to play a No. 2 role. Walz reportedly promised he has no interest in seeking the presidency down the line, an answer that “stuck with” Harris, per CNN.⁶ Shapiro plainly does, which could have led to an awkward dynamic. In the end, I think a key reason Shapiro wasn’t chosen can be gleaned from his statement after the process had already ended. Other contenders, like Mark Kelly and Andy Beshear, responded to the announcement with short tweets praising Walz. Shapiro, on the other hand, issued a lengthy statement mostly focused on his own future — it wasn’t until the fourth paragraph that he offered his “enthusiastic support” to Harris and Walz. In the end, he just doesn’t come off as a willing understudy.⁷

#11: Back to messaging. As I wrote above, Congressman Walz would have been a pitch-perfect running mate for Harris, but Governor Walz may pose some problems. (There’s a reason Harris ditched both labels last night and repeatedly referred to him as “Coach Walz” instead.)

Over the next few days, expect both parties to pick out different parts of Walz’s record. Harris will highlight the parts that mimic her plans for the national stage, such as his implementation of a child tax credit, paid leave program, and abortion protections. Republicans will point to more controversial measures, such as his bills allowing undocumented immigrants to obtain driver’s licenses and his bill to make Minnesota a “trans refuge” state. Walz’s response to the Black Lives Matter protests in Minneapolis in 2020 — when, Republicans says, he was too slow to call in the National Guard — will also come up a lot.

Ultimately, of course, VP picks tend to only matter in the margins (or in their home state, or more accurately, in the margins in their home state). This election will mostly come down to voter opinions on Trump and Harris themselves — which means painting Walz alone as extreme probably won’t move the needle much for Republicans, although it could help them play into a broader narrative about Harris as a “California liberal.” (Just as Vance helped Democrats build a broader narrative about Trump being, well, weird, I guess.)

#12: Finally, the last two weeks give a lot of insight into who holds power in the Democratic Party: namely, unions and Nancy Pelosi. Two of the biggest blows to Biden as his campaign was on the rocks were reports that United Auto Works president Shawn Fain and former House speaker Nancy Pelosi were concerned about his odds. They got their way then — and now: both Fain and Pelosi expressed a preference for Walz. It’s a reminder that they are two power brokers to be reckoned with in the party, even though, in Pelosi’s case, she no longer holds a formal title in the party’s leadership structure.

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More news to know

While progressives scored a victory with Walz, they also suffered a defeat in Missouri last night. The Associated Press reports:

St. Louis County Prosecuting Attorney Wesley Bell has defeated U.S. Rep. Cori Bush in a Democratic primary in St. Louis, marking the second time this year that one of the party’s incumbents has been ousted in an expensive contest that reflected deep divisions over the war in Gaza.

Bush, a member of the progressive congressional group known as the “Squad,” was seeking a third term in Missouri’s 1st Congressional District, which includes St. Louis city and part of St. Louis County. Bell is heavily favored to carry this overwhelmingly Democratic district in November, when his party is aiming to retake control of the U.S. House.

…Bell’s campaign received a big boost from the American Israel Public Affairs Committee, whose super political action committee, United Democracy Project, spent $8.5 million to oust Bush. She was targeted after repeated criticism of Israel’s response to the Oct. 7 Hamas attack.

It was a gameplan that worked earlier this year in New York. In June, United Democracy Project spent $15 million to defeat another Squad member — U.S. Rep. Jamaal Bowman. Bowman lost to George Latimer, a pro-Israel centrist.

Roll Call: Newhouse trailing Trump-backed challenger in Washington primary

WaPo: Sinwar to replace Haniyeh as Hamas political leader, cementing his power

Fox: FBI executes search warrant on Rep. Andy Ogles, seizes cell phone day after primary win

CNN: Pakistani national with ties to Iran charged in connection to a foiled assassination plot potentially targeting Trump

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The day ahead

All times Eastern. Click links to watch.

• Biden: The president has nothing on his public schedule.

• Harris/Walz: The new Democratic ticket will hold rallies in Eau Claire, Wisconsin (2pm) and Detroit, Michigan (6:40pm).

• Trump/Vance: The ex-president has nothing on his public schedule. Vance will counterprogram Harris and Walz, holding his own events in Shelby Township, Michigan (10am) and Eau Claire, Wisconsin (2pm).

• Congress: The House and Senate are on recess.

Footnotes

1. Before anyone yells at me, yes, Al Gore did not graduate from law school, but he did attend two years of Vanderbilt Law before dropping out to run for Congress.

2. Or that the Harris campaign began selling camo hats a few hours later.

3. Ironically, Holder and his law firm Covington & Burling oversaw Harris’ VP vetting process. I guess the ex-AG didn’t hold Walz’s decade-old vote against him.

4. The Shapiro vs. Walz comparison is an important reminder that crossover appeal is about more than just camouflage hats. As a congressman, Walz voted to approve the Keystone XL pipeline and received an A+ rating from the NRA. But as governor, he has signed a long list of clean energy bills and broken with the NRA on guns. As a result, he no longer overperforms among swing voters. In Minnesota, of course, that still allows him to win (though not by landslides) — but it’s a good reminder that you can’t dress your way to being perceived as a moderate. You also have to govern like it, often by making substantial breaks with your own party.

5. If I were a Democratic operative, another alarm bell that the Harris campaign has lost sight of the median voter would have been ringing when NBC reported that the VP didn’t pick Kelly partially because he had too critical of Biden’s immigration policy. But Biden’s immigration policy is supported by just one-third of Americans. If anything, Harris should be focused on criticizing Biden’s record on the issue more, not less, in order to target independent voters.

6. Hmm, what other vice president do we know that also promised he would never run for president? Walz, it should be noted, is younger (at age 60) than Biden was when he was tapped in 2008 (at age 65). Eight years from now, he’d be 68 — right in the awkward period where he could run for his own term but he wouldn’t necessarily be the obvious choice. Last time Democrats were in a similar position, it led to a very messy situation and a lot of hard feelings (with reverberations that played out even in this cycle).

7. One more VP selection that I’ll draw a comparison to: Al Gore’s in 2000. No, not because he picked an observant Jew (Joe Lieberman), but because he didn’t pick a contender from a swing state, then-Florida Sen. Bob Graham. In the end, Gore lost Florida by 537 votes, and some Democrats wondered what might have happened with Graham on the ticket, since even a minuscule home-state boost might have placed Gore in the White House. Harris-Walz might ride to victory. But if Harris wakes up on November 6th, a couple hundred or couple thousand votes down in Pennsylvania, she might wish that she had overcome her worries about Shapiro’s ambition and just put him on the ticket.