I'd like to stay the course and remain optimistic, Gabe?! I'm filling out my Mail in Ballot today in Oregon,as are millions of others. While trump flails around incoherent and Raging Hate, Kamala is campaigning her heart out to the American people. Vote Blue Up and Down the Ballot in November. Thank You and will reStack ASAP 💯👍🇺🇲💙🌊!
Perhaps it's time to re-visit (post-election) the legacy of Lee Atwater, who "gifted" us (for lack of a better term) much of the nastiness and racism that imbues our presidential elections annually.
Sorely disappointed. You’ve treated this election like a traditional horse race between 2 rational and reasonable opponents with different ideas on how to solve problems as opposed to the critical difference between democracy and fascism; between truth and lies and between the constitution and authoritarian rule. You’ve totally missed the point and I think you really need to go back and read more about the period before WWII. This is such a sanitized version of the differences you could be talking about cartoon characters instead of real people with serious repercussions to your own future. You’re young and you will have to live with the long term consequences. Your write ups are cold, calculating and careful to avoid any understanding of the vastly different futures each candidate represents. It’s like you actually believe that guardrails will in fact exist if the orange guy is elected. Good luck with that
This was an interesting read. That said, turnout will be the determinant. I believe Harris will turn out millions more voters than Biden. She should be able to cross 90 million. Trump can get perhaps 5 million more voters to add to this 75 million from four years ago. Prediction: Harris 49, Trump 44, Others 7. That is enough for an electoral college victory. If it is not, we will see unprecedented civil unrest.
Your line on both candidates continuing to speak on their favorite subject, Trump, is one of the best lines I have come across so far in this
For a description of American politics, that have enjoyed, and recently came across it again, from
H. L. Mencken:
The United States, to my eye, is incomparably the greatest show on earth. It is a show which avoids diligently all the kinds of clowning which tire me most quickly — for example, royal ceremonials, the tedious hocus-pocus of haut politique, the taking of politics seriously — and lays chief stress upon the kinds which delight me unceasingly — for example, the ribald combats of demagogues, the exquisitely ingenious operations of master rogues, the pursuit of witches and heretics, the desperate struggles of inferior men to claw their way into Heaven. We have clowns in constant practice among us who are as far above the clowns of any other great state as a Jack Dempsey is above a paralytic — and not a few dozen or score of them, but whole droves and herds. Human enterprises which, in all other Christian countries, are resigned despairingly to an incurable dullness — things that seem devoid of exhilirating amusement, by their very nature — are here lifted to such vast heights of buffoonery that contemplating them strains the midriff almost to breaking.
How can two accounts of the election results feel equally plausible? That’s what you’ve done, and it captures our toss up nation. Thanks for such a thoughtful analysis.
Hi Gabe, I finally am a paid subscriber. Thank you for your insight. And I may have paid 2x, please make sure I paid once. And.....yes, let's get rid of the electoral college. And what a crazy time we are in. I think the change of climate is making people crazy. We are animals and it sure is showing that we are not using are brains or our hearts.
We know Harris has issues with male voters. Ever wonder why?
Malcolm X summarized 2024’s presidential election decades ago:
“I have more respect for a man who lets me know where he stands, even if he’s wrong, than the one who comes up like an angel and is nothing but a devil.”
When I can quote Malcolm X *in favor* of a white candidate running against a black one, it should reveal how far the Democratic Party has fallen since Bill Clinton and Jimmy Carter. Just my two cents.
Very interesting read, and I like the “how did we get here” approach. I’m in NC, have already voted, and feel like the minds of most voters have been made for a long while—it’s either Trump, or anyone but Trump. I’ll have to come back to read this again once a winner has been declared.
Great read, thanks Gabe! Once again I did not realize some of the pre-writing that goes on in the regular media like this, and it makes a lot of sense because most of the election cycle has taken its course. Is that why you called it "pre-mortem" since it is similar to pre-writing obits for famous people?
You seem to be on the money with each candidate. They have been in separate campaign camps and it will be interesting what future campaign managers will take away. One thing I would change with the Harris win would be in the first paragraph: "and went on to defeat Trump’s bid for a second term on Tuesday." I would say "defeat Trump's most likely last bid for a second term on Tuesday." I mean might as well plant that seed early!
That was a fun thing to read and a good pre vote exercise. I am waiting until election day to vote and currently plan to blank the two highest races in NC—something I have never done and still don’t know if I will be able to carry off. Musk’s lottery crystallizes a dilemma for me too. First Amendment (all five guarantees) need to be respected and the Second Amendment which needs repeal, rewrite or reinterpretation.
I'd like to stay the course and remain optimistic, Gabe?! I'm filling out my Mail in Ballot today in Oregon,as are millions of others. While trump flails around incoherent and Raging Hate, Kamala is campaigning her heart out to the American people. Vote Blue Up and Down the Ballot in November. Thank You and will reStack ASAP 💯👍🇺🇲💙🌊!
Perhaps it's time to re-visit (post-election) the legacy of Lee Atwater, who "gifted" us (for lack of a better term) much of the nastiness and racism that imbues our presidential elections annually.
Sorely disappointed. You’ve treated this election like a traditional horse race between 2 rational and reasonable opponents with different ideas on how to solve problems as opposed to the critical difference between democracy and fascism; between truth and lies and between the constitution and authoritarian rule. You’ve totally missed the point and I think you really need to go back and read more about the period before WWII. This is such a sanitized version of the differences you could be talking about cartoon characters instead of real people with serious repercussions to your own future. You’re young and you will have to live with the long term consequences. Your write ups are cold, calculating and careful to avoid any understanding of the vastly different futures each candidate represents. It’s like you actually believe that guardrails will in fact exist if the orange guy is elected. Good luck with that
This was an interesting read. That said, turnout will be the determinant. I believe Harris will turn out millions more voters than Biden. She should be able to cross 90 million. Trump can get perhaps 5 million more voters to add to this 75 million from four years ago. Prediction: Harris 49, Trump 44, Others 7. That is enough for an electoral college victory. If it is not, we will see unprecedented civil unrest.
Your line on both candidates continuing to speak on their favorite subject, Trump, is one of the best lines I have come across so far in this
For a description of American politics, that have enjoyed, and recently came across it again, from
H. L. Mencken:
The United States, to my eye, is incomparably the greatest show on earth. It is a show which avoids diligently all the kinds of clowning which tire me most quickly — for example, royal ceremonials, the tedious hocus-pocus of haut politique, the taking of politics seriously — and lays chief stress upon the kinds which delight me unceasingly — for example, the ribald combats of demagogues, the exquisitely ingenious operations of master rogues, the pursuit of witches and heretics, the desperate struggles of inferior men to claw their way into Heaven. We have clowns in constant practice among us who are as far above the clowns of any other great state as a Jack Dempsey is above a paralytic — and not a few dozen or score of them, but whole droves and herds. Human enterprises which, in all other Christian countries, are resigned despairingly to an incurable dullness — things that seem devoid of exhilirating amusement, by their very nature — are here lifted to such vast heights of buffoonery that contemplating them strains the midriff almost to breaking.
How can two accounts of the election results feel equally plausible? That’s what you’ve done, and it captures our toss up nation. Thanks for such a thoughtful analysis.
In 2 weeks, hoping the 2nd scenario comes true (Kamala win).
Hi Gabe, I finally am a paid subscriber. Thank you for your insight. And I may have paid 2x, please make sure I paid once. And.....yes, let's get rid of the electoral college. And what a crazy time we are in. I think the change of climate is making people crazy. We are animals and it sure is showing that we are not using are brains or our hearts.
Shorter version:
We know Harris has issues with male voters. Ever wonder why?
Malcolm X summarized 2024’s presidential election decades ago:
“I have more respect for a man who lets me know where he stands, even if he’s wrong, than the one who comes up like an angel and is nothing but a devil.”
When I can quote Malcolm X *in favor* of a white candidate running against a black one, it should reveal how far the Democratic Party has fallen since Bill Clinton and Jimmy Carter. Just my two cents.
Very interesting read, and I like the “how did we get here” approach. I’m in NC, have already voted, and feel like the minds of most voters have been made for a long while—it’s either Trump, or anyone but Trump. I’ll have to come back to read this again once a winner has been declared.
Great read, thanks Gabe! Once again I did not realize some of the pre-writing that goes on in the regular media like this, and it makes a lot of sense because most of the election cycle has taken its course. Is that why you called it "pre-mortem" since it is similar to pre-writing obits for famous people?
You seem to be on the money with each candidate. They have been in separate campaign camps and it will be interesting what future campaign managers will take away. One thing I would change with the Harris win would be in the first paragraph: "and went on to defeat Trump’s bid for a second term on Tuesday." I would say "defeat Trump's most likely last bid for a second term on Tuesday." I mean might as well plant that seed early!
That was a fun thing to read and a good pre vote exercise. I am waiting until election day to vote and currently plan to blank the two highest races in NC—something I have never done and still don’t know if I will be able to carry off. Musk’s lottery crystallizes a dilemma for me too. First Amendment (all five guarantees) need to be respected and the Second Amendment which needs repeal, rewrite or reinterpretation.