What the Supreme Court has in store

Looking ahead to the new term.

Good morning! It’s October 7, 2024. Election Day is 29 days away.

Today is the one-year anniversary of the Hamas attack that killed nearly 1,200 Israelis, wounded more than 3,400, and ended with 250 taken hostage. The subsequent war — the longest and deadliest between Israel and its Arab neighbors since the country’s founding war ended in 1949 — has led to more than 40,000 Palestinian deaths, according to the Hamas-led health ministry in Gaza.

One year later, with ceasefire negotiations all but fizzled amid disinterest from both sides, the war has no end in sight; in fact, amid increased fighting between Israel and Lebanon, as well as Iran’s ballistic missile attack against Israel last week, the conflict appears closer to expanding than it does to ending.

Photo by Tim Mossholder on Unsplash

This morning also marks the beginning of the Supreme Court’s 2024-25 term, which will be the focus of today’s newsletter.

The court’s last term was marked by highly charged political cases, several of them decided with the six conservative justices in the majority and the three liberal justices in the minority, including Trump v. United States (which set the standard for how presidents can and can’t be prosecuted) and Loper Bright Enterprises v. Raimondo (which significantly reduced the power of the regulatory state).

The court also weighed in on disputes over racial gerrymandering and bump stocks for firearms (also along the same 6-3 battle lines), as well as cases involving January 6th, social media, abortion pills, opioids, pollution, and Donald Trump’s eligibility to run for the White House (all of which were decided along more mixed ideological lines).

It was a term in which the court’s image continued declining in the eyes of the public, as several justices came under fire for ethical lapses. And behind the scenes, according to extensive reporting by CNN and The New York Times, it was a term in which Chief Justice John Roberts — a George W. Bush appointee previously known as a more cautious institutionalist — centralized power on the court, courting legal victories even if it came at the cost of his previously desired unanimity.

That’s the context in which the nine justices will appear from behind the bench this morning to hear their first oral arguments of the term at 10 a.m. ET. The term ahead does not — yet — have as many controversial cases on the docket, but there are still several high-profile disputes. Here are some of the key cases to watch this term:

• United States v. Skrmetti: After years of the issue roiling the country, this will be the Supreme Court’s first formal foray into adjudicating transgender health care. The case stems from the federal government’s challenge to a Tennessee law banning puberty blockers, cross-sex hormones, and gender-transition surgeries for minors. The court’s decision will have broad national ramifications, likely carrying over to the 24 other states with similar prohibitions on the books.

• Garland v. VanDerStok: Like last term, which included multiple gun control cases, the Supreme Court will take up another Biden administration gun regulation later this week. This one involves “ghost guns,” firearms that are put together with kits at home — and therefore don’t have serial numbers and are untraceable by authorities. In 2022, the Justice Department unveiled a rule requiring vendors who sell ghost guns to treat them as fully completed firearms; gun rights groups are now challenging the regulation.

• Free Speech Coalition, Inc. v. Paxton: Another hot-button culture war issue is at the center of this case, which involves challenges to a Texas law requiring pornographic websites to verify their users’ ages. The Free Speech Coalition, a trade association for the adult entertainment industry, is arguing that the law violates their First Amendment rights, while Texas says the statute protects children. As in 10 other states with similar laws, the site Pornhub has opted to block access to users in Texas rather than comply with the requirements.

Other cases involving the death penalty, nuclear waste, and vaping are also poised to reach the court.

But there’s a good chance that the cases that define the 2024-5 Supreme Court term haven’t even emerged yet. The justices are highly likely to be called into disputes involving the 2024 election; whether they choose to dismiss the cases, as they did with most challenges to the 2020 election, or whether they get involved in a historically close race, as they did in 2000, remains to be seen.

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More news to know

• NYT: Trump’s Speeches, Increasingly Angry and Rambling, Reignite the Question of Age

• WaPo: Trump would add twice as much to national debt as Harris, study finds

• NY Daily News: NYC Deputy Mayor Phil Banks resigns in latest Adams administration shakeup amid federal corruption probes

• Politico: Senate Republicans’ strangely uneven spending map

• CNN: ‘Here we go again’: Hurricane Milton strengthens to Category 3 and aims at Helene-weary Florida

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The day ahead

All times Eastern

• President Biden will hold a yahrzeit candle lighting to mark the anniversary of the Hamas attacks in Israel. Later, he will receive his daily intelligence briefing and another briefing on the federal response to Hurricane Helene and Milton. Watch the candle lighting at 11:45 a.m.

• VP Harris will plant a pomegranate tree on the grounds of the vice president’s residence in honor of the victims of the Hamas attacks. Watch at 4 p.m.

• Former President Trump will visit the tomb of Rabbi Menachem Mendel Schneerson in Brooklyn. Later, he will hold an October 7th remembrance event at his Doral golf resort. Watch at 6 p.m.

• The Supreme Court will hear oral arguments in Williams v. Washington and Royal Canin U.S.A. v. Wullschleger. Listen at 10 a.m. and 11 a.m.

• The House and Senate are on recess.