What Sinwar’s death means for the war in Gaza
Could the Hamas leader’s killing lead to a ceasefire?
Good morning! It’s Friday, October 18, 2024. Election Day is 18 days away.
Let’s start this morning with the latest news from Israel and Gaza…
For more than a year, Yahya Sinwar — the leader of Hamas and architect of the October 7th attacks — has been the most wanted man in the Middle East.
Israeli soldiers chased him in the tunnels under Gaza. Israel’s domestic intelligence agency, Shin Bet, set up a special unit dedicated to finding him; American agencies pitched in to help. A $400,000 bounty was placed on Sinwar’s head.
On Wednesday, Sinwar was killed in the southern Gaza city of Rafah after exchanging fire with a unit of 19-year-old Israeli soldiers. According to Axios, the soldiers — who were in training — were conducting routine patrol when they encountered Sinwar with other Hamas militants. They were not acting on specific intelligence; in fact, they did not realize Sinwar was among those they had killed until recognizing him amid the rubble, hours later. (Sinwar’s identity was later confirmed by DNA testing and, this morning, by a Hamas official.)
A year-long manhunt ended with a chance encounter — one that could now alter the fate of the entire region.
Sinwar’s rise through Hamas was marked by gruesome violence — towards Israelis and Palestinians alike.
Although he is now best known for planning the October 7, 2023, attacks that killed nearly 1,200 Israelis — and led to a war that has taken more than 40,000 Palestinian lives, according to Hamas — his earliest work in the organization revolved around punishing his fellow Gazans.
As a leader of the Majd, Hamas’ internal police, in his 20s, Sinwar’s role was to identify Palestinians who collaborated with Israel, and then to kill or torture them. He was later arrested for murdering four such Palestinians; Israeli officials who interviewed him in prison have said he bragged about the brutality of his methods: strangling Palestinians to death, ordering a man to bury his brother alive, killing a woman who cheated on her husband, dripping boiling oil on collaborators’ heads until they confessed.
He was known as the “Butcher of Khan Younis,” the Gazan city where he was born and operated out of.
Sinwar ultimately spent more than two decades in Israeli prisons, using the time to learn Hebrew and study his enemy closely. At one point, he told an Israeli official that he believed the country would eventually be torn apart by domestic divisions. “After twenty years, you will become weak,” he said, “and I will attack you.”
After his release, Sinwar made good on his promise. In 2017, he became the leader of Hamas in Gaza, a victory for the hardline faction of the group. He set to work steering Hamas in a more radical direction and aligning the group more closely with Iran, seeking the country’s support for a major attack on Israel, which was (as he predicted) facing internal fissures. At the same time as he signaled to Israel that the group was committed to ensuring calm in Gaza, Sinwar spent years secretly planning what eventually became the October 7th attacks.
Sinwar’s high threshold for Palestinian pain — apparent in his earlier work with the Majd — has again been on display throughout the war. “Is it worth 10,000 innocent [Palestinians] to die in order to free 100 prisoners?” an Israeli prison official once asked Sinwar, as he held out for a deal in the 2010s to free himself and other prisoners.
“Even 100,000 is worth it,” he replied.
Over the last year, Israel’s attacks since the October 7th massacre have killed more than 40,000 Palestinians, according to data from the Hamas-led Gaza health ministry. Those figures do not distinguish between civilians and Hamas militants, although the UN has said that a majority of the dead are women and children. Almost all 2 million Gazans have been displaced at least once during the war. According to a report released yesterday, Gaza is on the brink of potential famine amid the Israeli onslaught.
At several points, moderate factions within Hamas have reportedly pressed Sinwar to accept a ceasefire; he has repeatedly refused one, urging the group to continue fighting even as the death toll climbed.
Will has own death create an opening to end the war?
That’s certainly what the White House is saying. “There is now the opportunity for a ‘day after’ in Gaza without Hamas in power, and for a political settlement that provides a better future for Israelis and Palestinians alike,” President Biden said in a statement. “Yahya Sinwar was an insurmountable obstacle to achieving all of those goals. That obstacle no longer exists.”
Vice President Kamala Harris used similar language, describing Sinwar’s death as “an opportunity to finally end the war in Gaza.” After speaking with Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu on the phone Thursday, Biden told reporters that he believed Netanyahu would end the war “very soon.”
But U.S. officials have expressed false optimism about a ceasefire before.
In July, Secretary of State Antony Blinken said that negotiators were “inside the 10-yard line.” In August, Biden said that they were “closer than we’ve ever been.” In September, he said that the U.S. was “very close” to finalizing a proposal. And that’s just in the last three months.
Importantly — unlike Biden and Harris — Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu made no mention of a potential ceasefire during his own remarks Thursday, although an anonymous aide said that Netanyahu agreed with Biden on the phone that “there is an opportunity now to push for the release of the hostages” as part of a negotiated agreement.
U.S. officials are likely to urge Netanyahu to take Sinwar’s death — which follows the killings of other top Hamas and Hezbollah officials in recent months — as the victory it needs to end the war. But, as before, Netanyahu continues to face competing pressure from right-wing members of his government, who have previously threatened to end his premiership if he agrees to a ceasefire.
“We must continue with all our strength - until the absolute victory!” Itamar Ben Gvir, Israel’s far-right national security minister, said on social media Thursday.
Biden told reporters Thursday that it was time for Netanyahu to “move on” and end the war, although he did not detail plans to increase pressure on the prime minister to do so. Earlier this week, the U.S. made one of its most specific demands of Israel yet, threatening to stop the flow of U.S. weapons into Israel if Netanyahu’s government did not allow more humanitarian aid into Gaza within 30 days. (Israel allowed additional aid the next day, although only a fraction of what agencies say is needed to curb the humanitarian crisis.)
As the war has expanded into Lebanon in recent days, top Democrats have been worrying about the impact the conflict could have on Harris’ odds in November, if Arab-Americans (especially in Michigan) oppose her candidacy. These officials had all but ruled out the possibility of a ceasefire before the end of Biden’s term — an outcome that seems more feasible now, but still remains far from assured.
More news to know
WaPo: Trump says Ukraine’s Zelensky should ‘never have let that war start’
The Bulwark: Trump World in Talks With Haley for Eleventh-Hour Joint Campaign Event
Axios: Dem House candidates smoke GOP rivals in 11th hour fundraising
The day ahead
President Joe Biden is in Berlin, where he will meet three of the most powerful leaders of Europe — German Chancellor Olaf Scholz, French President Emmanuel Macron, and UK Prime Minister Keir Starmer — to discuss the wars in Ukraine and the Middle East.
Vice President Kamala Harris will hold campaign events in Grand Rapids, Lansing, and Oakland County, Michigan.
Former President Donald Trump will hold two campaign events in Detroit, Michigan.
Gov. Tim Walz and Sen. JD Vance have no events scheduled.
The House and Senate are on recess.
The Supreme Court will meet for its weekly conference.
Thanks for some background into the war in Gaza and Sinwar’s history. May saner heads prevail
Thanks, Gabe. Your account included details I read nowhere else.