What I Would Do If I Were Donald Trump
Plus: Are judges as partisan as they seem?
Happy Friday, all! I’m here with this week’s mailbag column, and we’ve got a great set of reader questions to ponder:
What (if anything) could Republicans do to turn things around and succeed in the 2026 midterms?
Is there a defensible way to explain why Republican-appointed judges tend to rule with Trump and Democratic-appointed judges tend to rule against him, beyond raw partisanship?
How is the pace of congressional retirements compare to past cycles, and what does it tell us about who has the upper hand next year?
What’s the status of the remaining appropriations bills? Is Congress doing anything to avoid another shutdown?
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With that, time for some questions…
Let’s talk 2026
Q: How should Republicans start to strategize for special elections and the 2026 general elections to prevent the shift that appears to be coming?
I’m not normally in the business of giving political parties strategic advice, but I actually think this is an interesting thought experiment to consider in general. Is there anything Republicans can do to avoid losing in the 2026 elections?
I know how I’m tempted to answer. President Trump’s agenda is a mix of popular and unpopular priorities, and presumably, the GOP could lean into the popular side of it. A Marquette poll last month found that Trump’s net approval rating on border security is +9, while his net approval rating on immigration is -10, which tells me that the president would probably be in the best political position if he continued his work to limit illegal border crossings (which have dropped to a 50-year low) while focusing less attention on certain aspects of his deportation campaign (which was popular in the abstract, but has become less popular once people start hearing about sympathetic cases).
The White House has delighted in sharing videos of deportations set to music (most recently “Juno” by Sabrina Carpenter), which undoubtedly gins up excitement among Trump’s base but doesn’t seem to be translating outside of it. Polls generally show deporting illegal immigrants with criminal records to have near-unanimous support from the American public, while only 23% of voters said in a CNN poll that they back deporting non-criminal illegal aliens who have been here for years. Deporting criminals has been far from the main focus of the Trump deportation campaign, however, either in terms of those the administration is deporting or its broader messaging.
A White House policy that was squarely focused on closing the border and deporting illegal immigrants with criminal records — but largely not targeting other illegal immigrants (or at least not trumpeting it so gleefully) — would likely be the best stance on immigration for Republicans heading into 2026.
On the economy — by far the most important issue to the young and non-white voters Trump won in 2024 but are now quickly fleeing from his coalition ahead of 2026 — Trump could back away from his unpopular tariffs (here, the Supreme Court might do Trump a very unsolicited favor) but lean into recent announcements like his “Trump accounts” for children or his push to lower drug prices.
Those are things he’s already doing; the challenge is just getting people to notice. Yes, Trump is an expert at capturing media attention — but really that only goes for the bombastic stuff, like saying members of Congress should be executed. So far, he has proved no better than previous presidents at persuading the media to focus on his policy accomplishments. (It also probably doesn’t help that, at the drug pricing announcement, Trump appeared to fall asleep, which received more coverage than the policy itself.) The White House is reportedly planning to step up Trump’s domestic travel in hopes of promoting his economic messaging.
Polls also show that extending the enhanced Obamacare tax credits is highly popular (74% support per KFF), so Trump could persuade Republican lawmakers to agree to a deal on that, which would probably be to the party’s benefit for the midterms.
A more targeted immigration policy. A focus on popular economic policies. Staving off a spike in health care costs. Blue wave averted?
Maybe. Before we’re sure, let’s take a look at previous presidents who managed to avoid major midterm losses, and see if these impulses align with how they pulled it off.