Today’s Fairytale of the War, Chapter 3: Once upon a time there was a little boy who yelled Fire! in a theater. He was bored. He saw with glee the chaos he caused.
But the resulting stampede caused injury. How could he know what would happen? asked his babysitter, BB Gunn. He's only seven. But someone must be held responsible for this horrible crime! yelled many in the town, so they punished the two ushers who failed to open the doors in time. Two weeks later, it happened again, this time in a school. This time, children died, and again, much of the town demanded accountability for the crime. But he didn't mean it, testified his friend Em B. Ess. Two female teachers lost their job. (They weren't very good at their jobs anyway). Two weeks later, he walked into a grocery store and opened his mouth to yell, but nothing came out. Terror ensued. And then he left. Planning is hard, but chaos is easy. The End
The so-called Madman theory requires two things to work: a genuine belief on an adversary's part that the "madman" really will pull the trigger, and that the "madman" will stick to whatever bargain is struck afterwards. In both cases, the president shows he is utterly incapable of either. So the "madman" theory here is simply not at work. It didn't work for Richard Nixon, either, the case many think about when they think about this--the Soviets knew he was bluffing (just as the Russians and everyone else except the president's most loyal base know he is bluffing). I agree with you, Gabe, that the negotiations will tell the tale--but I'm willing to bet the Iranians will end up having some control over the Strait of Hormuz regardless. Our appetite for more attacks will lessen as the negotiations take place.
I recall standing in the desert in Iraq in 1991, listening to the countdown to the Gulf War ceasefire on both BBC shortwave and our armored division command net--the scale of destruction, from what we saw around us, was vast--but the core Iraqi ground forces were largely intact, even though they were retreating. I thought then that we should have gone one more day and really tackled the Republican Guard divisions. As we know, we bungled the peace in that conflict, giving Iraq the ability to move troops around by helicopter, which they promptly used on their own citizens to quell a revolt in the marsh land around the Tigris and Euphrates. We allowed them to keep much of their military intact--to counterbalance Iran, ironically. I thought then that we'd have to go back some day--and of course we did, though for all the wrong reasons.
I see the same things happening here: A desire to declare a quick and decisive victory based on an incomplete set of results. This takes nothing away from the brave men and women doing the fighting, but it does highlight how domestic political calculations, invariably short term, makes their sacrifices insignificant.
You will read lots of “analysis” today. Consider these points:
Trump won on some dimensions. He was able to threaten “annihilation.” Without saying nukes, he sent the message. The Republican leadership and members gave him a pass. Congress remained in recess. He proved again that there is no meaningful opposition in his own party. He proved once again that Democratic leadership is neutered, too.
Trump also got Netanyahu to agree to the two week pause. Israel will press on in Lebanon, but Iran’s destruction is paused. Basically, a shrug from Netanyahu, but something.
Trump got the markets to improve, if only temporarily. He gets to declare a win there. And, he gets to spend two weeks manipulating markets through social media posts.
He keeps his bromance with Putin going. Chaos works for both of them. Trump has a desire for chaos and he’s given himself at least two more weeks of it to keep the Epstein mess at bay. Everyone will be guessing and asking “what’s next?” That’s Trump’s turf.
“safe passage through the Strait of Hormuz will be possible via coordination with Iran’s Armed Forces and with due consideration of technical limitations.” I wonder if technical limitations might be because Iran has deployed some old-type contact mines which can drift to unknown locations.
Is there no one willing to do more than just report on what I hesitate to call what are the facts? Seems like there's just a lot of hand wringing on both sides of the aisle, but no action. What actually can DJT actually do to any of those who should be speaking out. Do you hear me, members of Congress, among others.
The Taliban didn't have an air force or a navy, and Trump threw in the towel on it four years ago. But now, when he talks about ordering mass destruction "for fun," he is being transparent about his growing villainy, and it shows that he has become very much emboldened about hogging the world stage, no matter how disgraceful his role in history will be as a result. This whole spiraling into chaos has got to stop somehow - the world can't continue to be subjected to it. Maybe if 51% of the world's population could join together in a meditative state, wishing as one that his head would explode...? We need a modern-day Thomas Jefferson to write a very clear and concise declaration of what Americans expect from their president, and we need virtually everyone in any position of visible authority to sign it: senators, congressmen, university leaders, CEO's, religious leaders, legit Nobel prize recipients, major newspaper editorial boards, retired generals, .... There has always been the phenomenon of the Ugly American, but now we have hauled off and elected the ugliest American as President and he is getting uglier and uglier by the day.
MadMEN (plural) is more like it! All of them. Including the cheerleaders and silent ones in our Congress.
While it is good to analyze the "news" of the day and wait to make any judgements...why not exercise judgement and call out radically immoral behavior? (we can always let slightly immoral stuff slide, as we are not really ever sure of true right and wrong...but we are witnessing extreme stuff here).
If the plan does not include a way for the U.S. to monitor the development of bomb grade uranium and long range missiles, this war will be a failure for the U.S.. Trump doesn’t care if the populace is unable to take the opening given to them to change the regime nor if Iran benefits from charging tolls for safe passage through Hormuz (so long as the tolls don’t increase prices that can be attributed to his administration.) If the Iranians don’t cave on the uranium/missile issues (I don’t think they will), the bombing campaign will resume.
Trump had nothing to do with this ceasefire. China stepped in behind the scenes to convince Iran to go along with a ceasefire because China buys almost all of Iran’s oil and has a vested interest in getting global trade moving again. Trump has no real plan for any of this and only works on magical thinking.
Is there a truce? Missles have landed since the announcement Nobody seems to be negotiating. Talking about a plan to begin negotiating isn't the same thing. I remember the Cuban Missle Crisis. That was scary enough and nobody was nuts. It came down to one Russian naval captain.
Today’s Fairytale of the War, Chapter 3: Once upon a time there was a little boy who yelled Fire! in a theater. He was bored. He saw with glee the chaos he caused.
But the resulting stampede caused injury. How could he know what would happen? asked his babysitter, BB Gunn. He's only seven. But someone must be held responsible for this horrible crime! yelled many in the town, so they punished the two ushers who failed to open the doors in time. Two weeks later, it happened again, this time in a school. This time, children died, and again, much of the town demanded accountability for the crime. But he didn't mean it, testified his friend Em B. Ess. Two female teachers lost their job. (They weren't very good at their jobs anyway). Two weeks later, he walked into a grocery store and opened his mouth to yell, but nothing came out. Terror ensued. And then he left. Planning is hard, but chaos is easy. The End
The so-called Madman theory requires two things to work: a genuine belief on an adversary's part that the "madman" really will pull the trigger, and that the "madman" will stick to whatever bargain is struck afterwards. In both cases, the president shows he is utterly incapable of either. So the "madman" theory here is simply not at work. It didn't work for Richard Nixon, either, the case many think about when they think about this--the Soviets knew he was bluffing (just as the Russians and everyone else except the president's most loyal base know he is bluffing). I agree with you, Gabe, that the negotiations will tell the tale--but I'm willing to bet the Iranians will end up having some control over the Strait of Hormuz regardless. Our appetite for more attacks will lessen as the negotiations take place.
I recall standing in the desert in Iraq in 1991, listening to the countdown to the Gulf War ceasefire on both BBC shortwave and our armored division command net--the scale of destruction, from what we saw around us, was vast--but the core Iraqi ground forces were largely intact, even though they were retreating. I thought then that we should have gone one more day and really tackled the Republican Guard divisions. As we know, we bungled the peace in that conflict, giving Iraq the ability to move troops around by helicopter, which they promptly used on their own citizens to quell a revolt in the marsh land around the Tigris and Euphrates. We allowed them to keep much of their military intact--to counterbalance Iran, ironically. I thought then that we'd have to go back some day--and of course we did, though for all the wrong reasons.
I see the same things happening here: A desire to declare a quick and decisive victory based on an incomplete set of results. This takes nothing away from the brave men and women doing the fighting, but it does highlight how domestic political calculations, invariably short term, makes their sacrifices insignificant.
You will read lots of “analysis” today. Consider these points:
Trump won on some dimensions. He was able to threaten “annihilation.” Without saying nukes, he sent the message. The Republican leadership and members gave him a pass. Congress remained in recess. He proved again that there is no meaningful opposition in his own party. He proved once again that Democratic leadership is neutered, too.
Trump also got Netanyahu to agree to the two week pause. Israel will press on in Lebanon, but Iran’s destruction is paused. Basically, a shrug from Netanyahu, but something.
Trump got the markets to improve, if only temporarily. He gets to declare a win there. And, he gets to spend two weeks manipulating markets through social media posts.
He keeps his bromance with Putin going. Chaos works for both of them. Trump has a desire for chaos and he’s given himself at least two more weeks of it to keep the Epstein mess at bay. Everyone will be guessing and asking “what’s next?” That’s Trump’s turf.
“safe passage through the Strait of Hormuz will be possible via coordination with Iran’s Armed Forces and with due consideration of technical limitations.” I wonder if technical limitations might be because Iran has deployed some old-type contact mines which can drift to unknown locations.
Is there no one willing to do more than just report on what I hesitate to call what are the facts? Seems like there's just a lot of hand wringing on both sides of the aisle, but no action. What actually can DJT actually do to any of those who should be speaking out. Do you hear me, members of Congress, among others.
The Taliban didn't have an air force or a navy, and Trump threw in the towel on it four years ago. But now, when he talks about ordering mass destruction "for fun," he is being transparent about his growing villainy, and it shows that he has become very much emboldened about hogging the world stage, no matter how disgraceful his role in history will be as a result. This whole spiraling into chaos has got to stop somehow - the world can't continue to be subjected to it. Maybe if 51% of the world's population could join together in a meditative state, wishing as one that his head would explode...? We need a modern-day Thomas Jefferson to write a very clear and concise declaration of what Americans expect from their president, and we need virtually everyone in any position of visible authority to sign it: senators, congressmen, university leaders, CEO's, religious leaders, legit Nobel prize recipients, major newspaper editorial boards, retired generals, .... There has always been the phenomenon of the Ugly American, but now we have hauled off and elected the ugliest American as President and he is getting uglier and uglier by the day.
MadMEN (plural) is more like it! All of them. Including the cheerleaders and silent ones in our Congress.
While it is good to analyze the "news" of the day and wait to make any judgements...why not exercise judgement and call out radically immoral behavior? (we can always let slightly immoral stuff slide, as we are not really ever sure of true right and wrong...but we are witnessing extreme stuff here).
If the plan does not include a way for the U.S. to monitor the development of bomb grade uranium and long range missiles, this war will be a failure for the U.S.. Trump doesn’t care if the populace is unable to take the opening given to them to change the regime nor if Iran benefits from charging tolls for safe passage through Hormuz (so long as the tolls don’t increase prices that can be attributed to his administration.) If the Iranians don’t cave on the uranium/missile issues (I don’t think they will), the bombing campaign will resume.
Trump had nothing to do with this ceasefire. China stepped in behind the scenes to convince Iran to go along with a ceasefire because China buys almost all of Iran’s oil and has a vested interest in getting global trade moving again. Trump has no real plan for any of this and only works on magical thinking.
Is there a truce? Missles have landed since the announcement Nobody seems to be negotiating. Talking about a plan to begin negotiating isn't the same thing. I remember the Cuban Missle Crisis. That was scary enough and nobody was nuts. It came down to one Russian naval captain.
TAW