Trump, Biden prep for high-stakes debate

In very different ways, of course.

Jun 20, 2024

We are exactly one week away from the first debate of the 2024 general election.

If that seems extraordinarily early to you — you’re right. In the history of televised presidential debates, there’s never been one earlier than late September, much less in late June. But, then again, this is not exactly your typical election cycle.

In another break with tradition, both candidates decided to go around the Commission on Presidential Debates — the non-partisan entity that has organized debates since 1988 — and negotiate directly with TV networks (and each other) to schedule their upcoming showdowns. The first debate will be hosted by CNN on June 27; the second, by ABC News on September 10. (That means the final Trump-Biden debate will take place earlier in the cycle than any previous first debates.)

Going directly to the networks gave the campaigns more leeway to negotiate the debate rules, without the tradition-oriented commission standing in the way. Here are the agreed-upon rules for next Thursday, as announced by CNN:

The debate will last 90 minutes, with two commercial breaks (during which the candidates cannot interact with their campaign staffs).
Both candidates will stand at podiums, with sides of the stage to be determined by a coin flip.
A candidate’s microphone will be muted when it is the other candidate’s turn to speak.
There will be no studio audience.
Candidates will not be allowed to bring props or pre-written notes onto the stage, although they will be allowed a pen and pad of paper to write on during the debate.

Both of the candidates have rules on the list to be happy about. Biden is the candidate who more typically relies on written notes, so the ban on pre-written material likely advantages Trump. Conversely, Trump is the one more likely to derive energy from a lively crowd, so the empty studio probably helps Biden — as does the muted microphones.

Recall the first Trump-Biden debate in 2020, when Trump interrupted Biden more than 120 times. (“Will you shut up, man?” Biden finally asked at one point.) According to an analysis by Open to Debate, a non-partisan organization, presidential debates have devolved to become progressively less civil over time — with more interruptions in 2020 than any previous year.

Notably, the second Trump-Biden debate in 2020 — when the rules were more regimented about muting candidate microphones, although not as strict as they are going to be this time — featured much less interrupting, a sign that microphone muting can be effective.

Memories of their first 2020 matchup — which Washington Post chief correspondent Dan Balz called the “worst presidential debate in living memory” — will hang over the Atlanta studio next Thursday night.

According to the New York Times’ Maggie Haberman, one of the best-sourced Trump reporters, Trump recognizes that he interrupted too much in 2020 and does not want to repeat that habit this time.

How are Trump and Biden preparing for their high-stakes debate, with exactly one week to go?

Biden is set to travel to Camp David, the presidential retreat in rural Maryland, today to begin his prep sessions in earnest. According to CNN, he is expected to spend his time poring over lengthy binders compiled by his aides — including possible answers to likely questions — and eventually to participate in full, 90-minute mock debates. (It is unclear who will participate as a Trump stand-in, although Biden’s personal lawyer Bob Bauer played the role in 2020).

The president’s preparations will be run his former chief of staff, Ron Klain, who is not only a close Biden aide, but also a seasoned debate coach. Klain has led debate prep for every Democratic presidential nominee since John Kerry in 2004. Several news outlets have reported that Biden is working on a “punchier” tone for the debate, including an increased readiness to highlight Trump’s 34 felony convictions.

Per CNN, Biden could stay at Camp David for the whole next week and travel directly from there to Atlanta, “depending on how much practice remains.”

Trump, on the other hand, is less fond of formal debate prep. Although he did hold full mock debates in 2016 and 2020 — both times, Chris Christie (now ex-communicated from Trump’s inner circle) played his rival as a stand-in — Trump views such sessions as “school” and has eschewed them this time, according to Haberman.

Instead, she told CNN’s Anderson Cooper, Trump’s campaign has had smaller sessions they call “policy time,” where they’ve brought in Republican allies to talk through different issues in a less formal manner. Sen. J.D. Vance (R-OH) was brought in for a discussion on the economy, per Politico; other such meetings have centered around immigration and foreign policy.

According to the New York Times, Trump has also been meeting with communications advisers to discuss how to respond to January 6th-related attacks, as well as to likely questions from the moderators about whether he plans to pardon the Capitol rioters.

A few more debate-related thoughts I’d like to note:

First, this campaign is incredibly close. According to the FiveThirtyEight model, in 100 simulations of the election, Trump wins 50 of them. Biden wins 49. (There’s an approximately 1% chance neither wins the Electoral College). There’s literally no way it could be closer.

It has also been incredibly stable. Look at that flat trendline:

Clearly, there are not many things — not even a criminal trial — that have managed to move the race very much. A televised debate in primetime is one of the few events that genuinely could jolt the race. Will Trump be able to answer questions about January 6th and his crop of indictments? Will Biden show his age or be able to sell his economy? Both candidates’ most critical vulnerabilities will be on full display; this will be their first high-profile chance to either dispel or confirm them. The stakes could not be higher.

Second, these two men are very unpracticed. Traditionally, the incumbent president performs very poorly in the first debate of an election cycle. (No wonder Biden wanted it held early, so he could recover from any potential missteps.) It happened to Ronald Reagan in 1984, George W. Bush in 2004, and Barack Obama in 2012. There is a clear reason for this dynamic: usually, the challenger candidate has just spent months going through the ringer of primary debates, honing their chops, while the incumbent has spent four years without debating and without standing on stage with anyone as an equal. The president lives in a bubble where they are surrounded by handlers, treated with the utmost respect, and generally get nods whenever they say something, not a 30-second rebuttal. For an incumbent, the first debate is a rude awakening.

This cycle, however, turns that paradigm on its head. Although it’s true that all of those qualities apply to Biden — they apply to Trump too, who has also spent the last four years living in a bubble of his own making. Trump, unlike most challengers, refused to participate in primary debates this cycle. That means his last debate was the same as Biden’s last debate: their final matchup in October 2020. Both the incumbent and the challenger are equally rusty heading into the first debate, something we haven’t seen for a while. That makes this week of prep time all the more important.

Finally, let’s talk about the expectations game. Over the past few weeks, the Republican National Committee and allied influencers have been circulating misleading videos falsely claiming to show Biden wandering off or sitting on a nonexistent chairs. All of these videos are meant to make Biden, 81, seem old — but they also serve to lower expectations for him next week.

Similarly, a new conservative news outlet reported this week that the Biden campaign is “trying to renegotiate the debate rules to allow Biden to be seated.” The report was quickly refuted, but not before it went viral on X. Again, Biden’s expectations were lowered.

This is a dangerous game, as Trump himself learned in 2020. If he sets expectations low for Biden and Biden whiffs on Thursday, it could seal negative perceptions of Biden and pay off. But if Biden exceeds expectations — which is easier to do the lower Trump sets the bar for him — it could defang a key Republican attack line. In the next week, keep an eye on how both campaigns are setting expectations — remembering that it’s better to leap over a low bar, then run head-first into a high one.

More news to know.

Speaking of next week’s debate, Robert F. Kennedy, Jr. won’t be there. Today was the deadline to qualify by notching 15% in four approved national polls and achieving ballot access in states totaling 270 electoral votes. Kennedy notched 15% in only three approved polls and only has ballot access in states totaling 89 electoral votes.

Context: Another mutual advantage for Trump and Biden of setting the debate early was lessening the chance that Kennedy would be able to achieve the necessary ballot access in time. Both Trump and Biden have reasons to fear Kennedy and preferred an opportunity to take on their rival one-on-one.
More Kennedy news: The Independent candidate raised only $2.6 million in May, a paltry sum to stage a presidential campaign.

New Jersey’s famously corrupt politics might be changing after the indictments of two powerful Democratic officials.

Related: “New Jersey politics is on fire. Where’s Cory Booker?” (Politico)

Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu, already facing domestic challenges from both his left and right, is now feuding with his own military.

The Russia-North Korea pact could lead South Korea to send arms to Ukraine, a major policy shift.

Problems are mounting for Washington Post publisher Will Lewis.

British Prime Minister Rishi Sunak is California dreamin’.

Daybook.

White House: President Biden will travel from his vacation house in Rehoboth Beach, Delaware, to Camp David to begin debate prep. Vice President Harris will deliver remarks at a “political event” in Washington, D.C.

Congress: The Senate will vote on confirmation of a new ambassador to the African Union. The House is off for the week.

Supreme Court: The justices will release new opinions at 10 a.m. ET. They have 23 remaining cases to decide this term, including high-profile disputes on presidential immunity, federal regulations, gun rights, and emergency abortions.

Before I go…

Happy summer! The season officially begins today with the solstice at 4:51 p.m. ET, which means there will be more daylight today than any other day of the year.

Fun fact: Because 2024 is a leap year but it resides in a century that won’t end in a leap year (2100 skips leap year status so the Gregorian calendar can correct itself), today is the earliest solstice by time of day since 1796, when George Washington was president. Forbes explains more here.