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AJ Ong's avatar

There's a 4th pathway, which I think is the most likely. Economy continues to go badly, some level of trade war begins to start, pro-Trump non-maga support begins to bleed away, and Trump desperately looks for an off-ramp. He announces "winning" trade deals with individual countried which allow him to reduce tarffs to close to previous levels. They aren't trade neutral or makeup for the economic loss he created, but he will declare himself the "king maker" of dealmaking, state this was his plan all along, and maga voters will say "I told you so". Meanwhile the majority of electorate in 2026 and especially 2028 won't remember this chaos

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Lisa Tassinari's avatar

This looks like it’s playing out already.

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AJ Ong's avatar

Agreed. Saw net positive polling fall nearly 20pts to negative (bad sign for midterms), countries digging in for trade war (China, EU), big money donors going public against tariffs (Musk, Ackerman), GOP Congress ready to hang bad results on Trump and to limit his ability to issue tariffs by legislation. He had no choice. In 3 yrs, maga voters will see a bull market and forget this sheer stupidity and the fact that Trump is above his depth

Partially up to us to continue to highlight his incompetence, Trump will continue to trump. And the Dems to focus on these economic, middle-class/upper-middle class issues and start pushing viable candidates (Buttigeg imo is an example) for '28

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Fletcher Bolsover's avatar

Believing polls, usually 1000-25,000 of the population, is like the guy across the street saying he can sell you the New York Tappan Zee Bridge. What were the polls (there were many) telling us prior the national election in 2015?

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AJ Ong's avatar

? Final polls leading up to 2016 election were fairly accurate across the board. Already proven to be the case, roughly a 2.5% polling error. What polls missed were several key swing states that tilted the EC to Trump because of general under representation of non-college white voters. But the polls were pretty accurate

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Fletcher Bolsover's avatar

What polls are you referring to? The MSM polls had their barn doors kicked in.

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AJ Ong's avatar

All tier 1 polls

You're confusing the media headlines vs the actual polls

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Lisa Tassinari's avatar

This is great to know. Thank you for the detailed possible paths forward out of this mess. What really bugs me is the amount of unnecessary hoop-jumping so many members of congress need to do just because of 47’s whim to impose tariffs in the first place. Since when does our government run on one unstable guy’s word without the backup support of an intelligence team and background information and research first?

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Patty S.'s avatar

The third possibility you posted, Gabe, is the Winner.⭐️🎉⭐️

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Michael Kupperburg's avatar

With Trump the news is swift and sharp. Your introduction was right on, until it wasn't.

Your explanations were spot on, well thought out, and equally well written. Thank you!

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Nicholas Barry's avatar

Can you clarify how much leverage Mike Johnson has to block things from going to the floor in the House in this situation?

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Judy's avatar

Well, now that I got permission to post Congress is just dithering not doing a thing which I’m not surprised since Trump has the trifecta and possibly even the Supreme Court anyhow, I digress

In the meantime, my annuity which I worked 25 years obtaining is now being hit really hard and since I am a retiree that is not good for me I don’t think I can wait for 2 quarters for the things to “turn around”

Which I’m not sure it will

The other country certainly aren’t laying down and doing his bidding unlike America

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William MaxDividends Team's avatar

This is a solid take on the trade game. It'll be interesting to see if Congress steps up and reclaims some of that power. The whole tariff situation is definitely a wild ride!

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Carol's avatar

Or......nobody does anything, we all continue to talk and dither, and he just goes his merry way. In 10 years where will we or our county be?

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Fletcher Bolsover's avatar

Where would we be under Biden's shadow government in less than 10 years???

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