The DOGElash Begins
Did Elon Musk cost Trump his honeymoon?
Two months ago, in the midst of Donald Trump’s second presidential transition, I wrote that Trump had achieved a notable milestone for the first time in his political career: popularity.
I was using the RealClearPolitics average of polls surveying Trump’s favorability, which at the time stood at +2 percentage points — hardly impressive for a president-elect historically, but hugely impressive for Trump personally. (He spent most of his first term at around -15 percentage points.) It was the first time RCP had ever recorded Trump with a net-positive favorability rating.
The honeymoon didn’t last long. By the end of December, Trump’s favorability rating would dip back below zero. It briefly went back above water around Inauguration Day, but has since returned to net-unpopular territory. As of today, his average favorability rating stands at -0.9 percentage points.
Trump’s second-term job approval is on an even starker trajectory. According to the RealClearPolitics average, it started on Inauguration Day at +8.5 percentage points, significantly higher than it had ever been in his first term. Today, it stands at +1.8 percentage points.
If current trends persist, Trump’s job approval will be underwater any day now, a much quicker transition from a positive to negative approval rating than previous presidents experienced.
Joe Biden’s approval rating, for example, remained above water for the first eight months of his presidency, per FiveThirtyEight; Obama’s for the first year and a half. (On the other hand, lasting into his second month would still be a longer honeymoon than Trump’s first term, when his net approval rating went below zero on Day 16.)
Looking at individual pollsters that fielded surveys in both the first and second months of Trump’s presidency, the change is noticeable as well. In every case, Trump’s approval rating was lower in the second reading than the first — in some cases by a net swing of as many as seven or thirteen percentage points.
On average, Trump went from a +5 approval rating in these polls in January to a precisely flat rating by February — not exactly the direction a new president wants to be headed in, especially one who has spent much of his first month boasting about being given a “massive” mandate by the voters.
What accounts for this rapid shift in opinion — from a populace more open to Trump than ever before in January, to one that already seems to be losing patience with him?
Well, I think it’s fair to say that the most dominant storyline of Trump’s first month in office has been the activities of Elon Musk’s Department of Government Efficiency (DOGE), which has been responsible for many of the administration’s most dramatic and attention-grabbing moves: firing thousands of federal workers, shuttering the U.S. Agency for International Development (USAID), accessing sensitive data, and generally sparking confrontations and legal battles across government.
If you’re wondering how it is that opinions on Trump 2.0 started to turn south, it seems like tracking opinions on Musk and DOGE would be a good place to start.
And nearly every poll available suggests that Musk’s initial moves have not been popular. According to Quinnipiac, Musk’s favorability rating went from -5 in December to -12 in February. Per YouGov, his favorability has gone from even in January to -10 in February, an even steeper drop-off. A majority of voters in both polls hold an unfavorable opinion of the DOGE chief.
In YouGov’s polling, voters are also quite explicit in their disapproval of Musk’s role in Trump’s administration. 63% of Americans think Musk has “a lot” of influence in the White House — but only 18% want him having that much sway. Among Independents, that number drops even lower: only 12% want Musk having “a lot” of influence. (60% think he does.)
Even among Republicans, only 35% want Musk to have “a lot” of influence in the administration; 13% of the party — a small but noticeable segment — would rather he not have any influence any at all.
One theory of the Trump/Musk relationship is that Musk is useful to Trump as a “heat shield” for criticism: because the tech mogul receives so much condemnation, it ensures that negative attention that might otherwise be going to Trump heads for Musk instead.
The polling doesn’t really support this narrative, however. According to most surveys, Musk is growing more unpopular, he is perceived as having undue influence over Trump, and therefore Trump is growing more unpopular as well. The heat shield doesn’t seem to be working; instead, Trump and Musk seem to be losing support in tandem, at a notably fast clip.
In recent days, this growing disapproval of Trump, Musk, and DOGE has been made tangible in the form of protests at town hall meetings held by Republican members of Congress, which were seen in Georgia, Missouri, Texas, Wisconsin, and several other states last week.
It’s hard to know how to categorize these protests mentally. Some of them took place in deep-red districts — which, on one hand, could be taken as evidence of a repeat of the 2009-10 experience, when extensive Obamacare protests at Democratic town hall meetings preceded a mammoth swing towards Republicans in the next year’s House elections.
On the other hand, even districts that generally vote for Republicans by, say, 70%-30% are — by definition — composed of around 30% Democrats. If these town hall protests are merely members of those same 30% that would already vote against the incumbent registering their opposition, then they don’t portend much of an electoral shift. (And that’s before taking into account the fact that some of the protesters might not even hail from the districts they were protesting in.)
As a base case, due to the history of thermostatic public opinion, it’s probably fair to assume that Democrats have an upper hand in the 2026 House elections — but there’s a big difference between picking up 63 seats (as Republicans did in the 2010 midterms) and picking up nine seats and scraping by with a narrow majority (as Republicans did in the 2022 midterms). It’s impossible to know in the moment whether a crop of protests are of the historic-midterm-shift variety.
Still, protests don’t always have to representing genuine electoral movements for them to trigger consequences. Members of Congress live in fear of town halls that turn sour, and the negative local press they bring (that’s one reason fewer lawmakers hold town halls than they used to). Some GOP lawmakers have waved off the reactions they received in their districts, but others seem to be responding to it.
Rep. Rich McCormick (R-GA), for example, represents a district Trump won by 22 percentage points in 2024. But after facing a contentious town hall audience last week, he told the Atlanta Journal-Constitution that he was “concerned that maybe we're moving a little bit too fast.”
McCormick also told NBC News that he plans to raise this point with Trump and Musk personally. “If we have layoffs at the [Centers for Disease Control and Prevention], some people are going to be affected,” the congressman said. “The question is, do we give people time to adjust to their lives? And I think that’s my biggest concern, is that we’re being compassionate.”
“Ironically, the first time I ever met Elon Musk, he was asked, ‘What could Republicans do better?’ And his response was … ‘I think you guys could come across as more compassionate.’ So I’m going to use his own words when I talk to him,” McCormick added.
Per Politico, a growing numbers of congressional Republicans have also been privately backchanneling with White House officials, similarly telling them to slow the cuts down.
Many of the congressional fears seem to stem from the recent firings of thousands of probationary employees. While some DOGE moves, like shuttering USAID, aren’t likely to be viscerally felt by most Americans, these firings could be — both because they could impact critical services Americans rely on, and because they will lead to dismissals across the country, impacting people’s neighbors, friends, and family members.
Recall that more than 80% of federal employees work outside of the D.C. area; if job losses start mounting in their districts and impacting their constituents, that’s when alarm bells start ringing in congressional offices. Not to mention the bad press some of the firings will bring, considering veterans make up more than a quarter of the federal workforce.
The Trump administration has already had to repeatedly reverse itself after backlash, from cutting funds to a program for 9/11 survivors to firing nuclear security workers. With each round of moves, quick reversals seem to follow, showing that the administration is still sensitive to public opinion and complaints from Republican lawmakers.
Most recently, even Trump administration officials appeared to break with Musk, as Trump loyalists like FBI Director Kash Patel, Director of National Intelligence Tulsi Gabbard, and Defense Secretary Pete Hegseth told their employees not to respond to a DOGE-inspired email asking them to list five things they did last week.
It was the first notable example of Trump agency heads balking at Musk’s attempts to give directives to their workforces.
Again, it’s easy to overstate these tensions: the fact remains that most Trump officials support Musk’s work, despite the email brush-up. But it is another reminder, as I’ve written previously, that Musk’s “move fast and break things” approach is not only legally risky — the fact that the email was sent at all is another case of Musk’s influence appearing larger than how the administration is representing it in court — but also potentially counterproductive.
In order to be maximally effective, Musk will require support from agency heads and members of Congress. But he largely appears to be going around them — an easy way to lose goodwill fast, especially if they see he is polling poorly and start viewing him as a political weakness.
For now, though, Musk seems to be playing for an audience of one — and there’s no sign his patron is unhappy. Despite concerns from the public and from lawmakers, Trump wrote on Truth Social this weekend that his only complaint with Musk is that he isn’t moving more aggressively.
“ELON IS DOING A GREAT JOB, BUT I WOULD LIKE TO SEE HIM GET MORE AGGRESSIVE,” Trump said. “REMEMBER, WE HAVE A COUNTRY TO SAVE, BUT ULTIMATELY, TO MAKE GREATER THAN EVER BEFORE. MAGA!”
“Will do, Mr. President!” Musk responded.
One more thing…
For your radar: Today is a big day in the House, where Speaker Mike Johnson plans to hold a vote on the budget resolution that will allow Republicans to begin advancing their “one big beautiful” reconciliation bill.
As of now, Johnson doesn’t seem to have the votes. Rep. Warren Davidson (R-OH) says he will not support the resolution until GOP leaders present a plan to keep the government open past the March 14 shutdown deadline. Reps. Tim Burchett (R-TN), Thomas Massie (R-KY), Victoria Spartz (R-IN) have all said they plan to vote against the resolution because it doesn’t cut enough spending.
And then, on the other end of the spectrum, moderate Republicans like Reps. Don Bacon (R-NE), Nicole Malliotakis (R-NY), and David Valadao (R-CA) have expressed concerns that the package cuts too much, especially from Medicaid.
Assuming full attendance, Johnson would only be able to lose one Republican vote — although Democratic absences could give him more of a cushion. The vote will be a major test of Johnson’s leadership, and of the GOP’s ability to move forward with Trump’s legislative agenda.
“This is a prayer request,” Johnson said at an event yesterday, seeking divine intervention on today’s vote. “Just pray this through for us, because it is very high-stakes, and everybody knows that.”
Two notes tying this to the above:
If you think protests have been loud at GOP town halls already, just wait until they start tinkering with Medicaid (assuming the budget resolution eventually goes through). Any popular backlash to DOGE could end up looking small compared to the reaction the reconciliation package could evoke, at least going off of the response to previous GOP attempts to shrink the social safety net.
Musk seemed to signal opposition to the budget resolution last night. Another way to lose goodwill fast among Republican congressional leaders? Come out against their signature legislative product.
More news to know
AP: Nearly 40% of contracts canceled by Musk’s DOGE are expected to produce no savings
CNN: Federal judge declines to temporarily restore AP’s full access to White House
WSJ: Dan Bongino Called the FBI ‘Irredeemably Corrupt.’ Now He’ll Help Run It.
WaPo: Trump repeals Biden directive linking U.S. arms to human rights
The day ahead
All times Eastern.
President Trump will sign executive orders at 3 p.m.
White House press secretary Karoline Leavitt will hold a press briefing at 1 p.m.
The Senate will hold a confirmation vote at 11:15 a.m. for Daniel Driscoll’s nomination to be Secretary of the Army. At 12 p.m., the chamber will hold a procedural vote on a resolution to overturn a Biden-era regulation on offshore drilling.
The House will hold a procedural vote at around 1:30 p.m. to advance the budget resolution. If it advances, the chamber will vote on final passage of the resolution at around 6 p.m.
The Supreme Court will hear oral arguments in Esteras v. United States and Perttu v. Richards.
President Biden? I wish . . . .
It’s not Musk’s fault, it’s Trump who allowed him to buy his presidency, then “according to the rules of payback” gave him the job, and pathetic congressional Republicans who support him, pretend it’s all just fine. Like harry Truman said “ the buck stops here “. Anything else is absolute bullsh:t