Slight Trump gains in the polls
And more campaign updates.
Good morning! It’s Monday, October 21, 2024. Election Day is 15 days away.
Let’s take a look at the state of the race…
POLLING — The first thing to note about the polls in the final stretch is how few of them there have been. Per Politico, three high-quality polls have been conducted in Pennsylvania in October. One in Wisconsin. Two in Michigan.
That means, with 15 days to go, we’re flying blind to some degree. From the polls we do have, though, a slight Trump gain is visible across the battleground states, as this New York Times graphic shows:
Be careful taking too much from this, however. All this graphic shows is that a close race has become even closer; with two weeks left, neither candidate has a discernible edge. (And, no, before you ask, the polling averages are not being impacted by Republican-leaning pollsters.)
MESSAGING — As I wrote last week, evidence is slim that campaign rallies succeed in picking up many votes for candidates. But campaign stops can still be useful for decoding a campaign’s message and strategy.
For example, this weekend, Donald Trump donned an apron and served french fries to pre-selected Trump supporters at a Philadelphia-area McDonald’s, seeking to boost his image as a friend of working-class Americans. Meanwhile, Harris spent her 60th birthday at a Black church in Georgia, attempting to shore up her support in the Black community.
Harris’ travel also shows her late-stage focus on undecided Republican voters: the VP will appear with former Rep. Liz Cheney (R-WY) in Pennsylvania, Michigan, and Wisconsin today.
Here’s a map from VoteHub that shows where both candidates have been traveling throughout the campaign. One other takeaway? This race will come down to Pennsylvania, Pennsylvania, Pennsylvania.
FUNDRAISING — The Harris campaign continues to run circles around Trump’s fundraising operation. According to an FEC report filed on Sunday, Harris and allied party committees raised $378 million in September, compared to $160 million raised by Trump and his allied groups.
Harris raised $1 billion in the fundraising quarter that ended September 30, setting a presidential campaign record.
More news to know
Fox: ‘Tragic and shocking’: Explosive House report details ‘preventable’ July 13 Trump rally shooting
NPR: Biden administration proposes a rule to make over-the-counter birth control free
CBS: Elon Musk is offering a $1 million-a-day giveaway to sign his PAC petition. Is it legal?
NBC: Harris has no current plans to campaign with Biden before Election Day
WSJ: U.S. Investigates Intelligence Leak About Israel’s Plans for Attacking Iran
AP: Arnold Palmer’s daughter reacts to Donald Trump’s references to her father
The day ahead
President Biden will host a ceremony to present the National Medals of Arts and National Humanities Medals for 2022 and 2023. Recipients include Steven Spielberg, LeVar Burton, Aaron Sorkin, Eva Longoria, Spike Lee, Ken Burns, Jon Meacham, and Queen Latifah.
Vice President Harris will hold campaign events with Liz Cheney in Malvern, Pennsylvania; Birmingham, Michigan; and Brookfield, Wisconsin.
Former President Trump will hold campaign events in Greenville and Concord, North Carolina.
Gov. Tim Walz and Sen. JD Vance have no public events scheduled.
The House and Senate are on recess.
The Supreme Court has no more oral arguments scheduled this month.
Hi Gabe,
I enjoy so much of your writing. But it seems like you've joined the horse race and have been mimicking the legacy media (NYT, WA PO etc) too frequently lately in their pursuit to make news rather than report it. Keep reporting it, and I will be much more likely to read your blogs over the next couple of week.
Gabe, I'm sorry if I've missed it, but have you reported about the media platforms being used by each candidate? I was in the Raleigh/Durham area over the weekend, and the house I was visiting received 3 glossy Trump flyers with concise messaging around a theme for each one (economy, immigrants, etc.). The residents said they haven't received any for Harris. (I think they are registered Democrats, millennials.)
The Trump signs I saw there also had pithy reminders, not just his name. For instance, one said TRUMP in big letters with LOW PRICES under it, and then HARRIS with HIGH PRICES under it.
If the key is to reach unaffiliated and minimally-informed voters, it seems like traditional methods of mailing flyers right to the homes and posting message-rich signs around the communities they live in would be effective. Curious if the Dems are doing that in the swing states...