We lived in Montana for a few years. It was clear and obvious it was a Jon Tester + Donald Trump state.
However, Tester's base is likely dying away - literally.
And, there are more Montana transplants (since Covid) than ever before. While the "Shady Sheehy" ads were clever, I'm guessing the new, young Montanans don't see the value in a veteran-focused Tester.
No one ever addresses the real issue here: the US is the most underrepresented democracy in the Western World. The EU itself has something like 750 MPs, and the UK with 1/7 our population has over 600 PMs. We need to significantly increase the number of congressmen. This will not only give better representation, it will also work to solve the gerrymandering problem by making districts smaller. On the Senate side, I just don’t understand the lackadaisical attitude of big states about being grossly underrepresented. Any state with 10 million or more needs to split. California could split into six states with each state still being bigger than average. Whatever happened to taxation without representation?
If Trump wins Montana this fall by about 20 points, as he did in 2016, that would almost certainly be too much for Tester to overcome. Or at least, if Tester did somehow win in that scenario, it'd be an unprecedented overperformance in modern times.
We lived in Montana for a few years. It was clear and obvious it was a Jon Tester + Donald Trump state.
However, Tester's base is likely dying away - literally.
And, there are more Montana transplants (since Covid) than ever before. While the "Shady Sheehy" ads were clever, I'm guessing the new, young Montanans don't see the value in a veteran-focused Tester.
No one ever addresses the real issue here: the US is the most underrepresented democracy in the Western World. The EU itself has something like 750 MPs, and the UK with 1/7 our population has over 600 PMs. We need to significantly increase the number of congressmen. This will not only give better representation, it will also work to solve the gerrymandering problem by making districts smaller. On the Senate side, I just don’t understand the lackadaisical attitude of big states about being grossly underrepresented. Any state with 10 million or more needs to split. California could split into six states with each state still being bigger than average. Whatever happened to taxation without representation?
Great post. Didn't George H.W. Bush enter the White House w/out a Republican senate in 1989?
What would it take in terms of a Trump win in Montana to put Tester into play? 10%?
If Trump wins Montana this fall by about 20 points, as he did in 2016, that would almost certainly be too much for Tester to overcome. Or at least, if Tester did somehow win in that scenario, it'd be an unprecedented overperformance in modern times.
Hopefully, there will be some ticket splitting. Or even better, enough people get fed up with Trump and just don’t vote. Wishful thinking, I know.
We need to find “Gene Eric” and run him for Senate. Easy W.
If you’re no smarter or dumber than anyone else, why do you feel the need to put “PhD” after your name?