Netanyahu and Putin Aren’t Listening to Trump

What was that about regaining respect on the world stage?

“Throughout the entire world, we’re no longer respected as a country. They don’t respect our leadership. They don’t respect the United States anymore.”

That was Donald Trump in June 2024, at his lone debate with Joe Biden. This was a key talking point of his third presidential campaign, and not without reason: under Biden’s watch, Trump would frequently remind his audiences, Russia had invaded Ukraine and Hamas had attacked Israel.

Trump promised that if he was elected to a third term, all that would change. He would end those wars (maybe even in one day). Foreign leaders would start listening to America again.

But they don’t seem to be listening now. Despite Trump’s frequent insistence that he is on the verge of resolving the conflicts in Ukraine and Gaza, both wars have expanded in the last 24 hours, against his wishes. Russian President Vladimir Putin and Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu appear to be paying Trump little heed, just as he said they walked over Biden for four years.

Russia: Poland announced this morning that it shot down Russian drones that entered its airspace during an attack on Ukraine. “This situation brings us the closest we have been to open conflict since World War II,” Polish Prime Minister Donald Tusk said, adding that a “line has been crossed” and that Poland viewed the incident as a “large-scale provocation.”

Tusk said that 19 drones entered Polish airspace, four of which Poland was able to shoot down, out of 415 that Russia had sent into western Ukraine as part of a massive attack. In response, Poland invoked Article IV of the NATO Treaty, which calls for military consultations, only the eighth time in the alliance’s 76-year history that the provision has been triggered. (Article V, which calls for collective military action, was not invoked.) It was the first time since the Ukraine war began that Russian drones were shot down over a NATO country’s territory.

“We stand by our NATO Allies in the face of these airspace violations and will defend every inch of NATO territory,” Matthew Whitaker, the U.S. ambassador to NATO, wrote on X, although President Trump has yet to comment. NATO Secretary-General Mark Rutte told reporters that “Polish F16s, Dutch F35s, Italian AWACS, NATO Multi Role Tanker Transport, and German Patriots” were all engaged to defend Polish territory, seemingly signaling that the U.S. was not involved in the response.

It is unclear if the airspace violation was intentional: Belarus, a close Russian ally, said on Moscow’s behalf that it was an accident; Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky, meanwhile, said that the “strike direction” indicated “the non-accidental nature of such a move.”

Israel: Poland was not the only U.S. ally to see its territory violated in the last 24 hours. Israel carried out an air strike in Qatar on Tuesday in an attempt to assassinate key Hamas leaders who were huddled there for ceasefire negotiations.

It is unclear how successful the strike was: according to Hamas, five lower-level members of the group were killed, but none of its top leaders who were targeted. Qatari Prime Minister Sheikh Mohammed bin Abdulrahman al-Thani condemned the attack as “a flagrant violation” of Qatar’s “sovereignty and security, and a clear violation of the rules and principles of international law.”

Al-Thani pledged to continue serving as a mediator in the Israel/Hamas conflict, although he said that the Israeli attack likely put an end to the current round of ceasefire talks.

Trump quickly distanced himself from the Israeli strike: “This was a decision made by Prime Minister Netanyahu, it was not a decision made by me,” he wrote on Truth Social. “Unilaterally bombing inside Qatar, a Sovereign Nation and close Ally of the United States, that is working very hard and bravely taking risks with us to broker Peace, does not advance Israel or America’s goals.”

“I view Qatar as a strong Ally and friend of the U.S., and feel very badly about the location of the attack,” Trump said, adding that he assured al-Thani in a phone call that “such a thing will not happen again on their soil.”

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Both episodes can easily be interpreted as not-so-subtle messages towards Trump.

The Hamas leaders were in Qatar, after all, considering a ceasefire proposal that Trump put forward. The Russian incursion into Poland, meanwhile, came just one week after Trump hosted the Polish president at the White House. “We’ll be staying in Poland,” Trump said then, signaling a continued military presence there. “We’re very much aligned with Poland.”

Of course, it’s possible the Russian encroachment into a NATO territory was accidental. But even the 415 drones being sent into Ukraine represent Putin defying Trump, who has insisted that Russia’s war must end. As the below BBC chart shows, however, Russian missile and drone launches have only increased since Trump took office, not decreased.

Almost a month has passed since the much-hyped summit between Trump and Putin in Alaska; Putin has made no movement towards peace in that time, despite Trump’s assurances that his meeting with the Russian leader would produce a breakthrough.

Ultimately, both events appear to be tests of Trump by Putin and Netanyahu. They know he will release a strongly worded statement condemning the attacks, as he has at previous points of escalation in both wars. But will he actually respond in any forceful, meaningful way?

One interesting dynamic here is the extent to which Trump — normally viewed as the unquestioned leader of the Republican Party, bringing them to heel — is actually somewhat hemmed in by the GOP base. You can see this playing out in the Jeffrey Epstein saga, where Trump-aligned Republicans like Marjorie Taylor Greene aren’t letting Trump move past the issue, try as he might.

You can see it with vaccines too: Trump reportedly complained to donors last month that even though he viewed the Covid vaccine as one of his first administration’s biggest accomplishments, he couldn’t bask in it, presumably because he recognizes he needs to retain the backing of RFK Jr. and his supporters.

On Israel and Ukraine, Trump’s base supports the idea of peace, but opposes Trump taking some of the steps that would likely be required to get there, that might actually add some teeth to his condemnations. (“Peace through strength,” Ronald Reagan would have called it.) There are Trump backers who would rebel at any sight of helping Ukraine through imposing Russian sanctions, while other members of Trump’s coalition are staunchly opposed to taking steps to curtail Israel.

As a result, Trump is left calling for ceasefires without any of the tools that might make them a reality. Increasingly, it seems like he is yelling into the void, with neither Putin nor Netanyahu interested in listening — or feeling any pressure to fall in line.

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In other news…

• We have a lot of updates on the many Trump court cases that I’ve been covering closely. Yesterday, the Supreme Court announced that it will hear the case on Trump’s tariffs, with oral arguments set for the first week of November, setting up the highest-stakes legal clash of the president’s term so far.

• Chief Justice John Roberts, meanwhile, temporarily allowed Trump to freeze the $4 billion in foreign aid that is currently the subject of the president’s pocket rescission. But this is very temporary: Roberts’ order only sets the posture of the case while the rest of the Supreme Court decides how to handle Trump’s emergency request on the same aid. A “shadow docket” ruling by the full court will likely come soon. It’s also hard to say much even about Roberts’ eventual vote from this order: the last time a foreign aid case came before the court, in February, Roberts granted Trump a similar pause before joining Justice Amy Coney Barrett and the court’s liberals in ruling against the president a week later.

• Finally, U.S. District Judge Jia Cobb ruled last night that Federal Reserve Governor Lisa Cook should remain on the Fed board while Trump’s attempt to fire her works its way through the courts. Cobb wrote that the Federal Reserve Act provision stating that members of the central bank’s board can only be fired “for cause” is likely “limited to grounds concerning a Governor’s behavior in office and whether they have been faithfully and effectively executing their statutory duties,” meaning that allegations of mortgage fraud before taking office do not qualify. Or, to put it in Wake Up To Politics parlance: she ruled that Trump is not Humpty Dumpty. Trump is certain to appeal the ruling.

• Also: The Biden jobs market wasn’t quite as hot as it seemed, U.S. inflation fell in August at the wholesale level, Kamala Harris is back, and a Democratic special election victory means that the House GOP’s margin on tight votes has shrunk from three to two.