The DNC should change the rules allowing for challenges even now. Biden MUST be removed. It is absolute mandatory. I’ve made a list and asked friends to call and write their representatives. I called Pelosi’s office too. They have to hear from us!!!
Although some people who are dealing with memory loss realize it is happening, many people who are suffering memory problems do NOT realize that it is happening to them. Which is it for Biden? That's the flaw is saying let Biden himself decide.
Let's be fair: the people suffering from memory loss seem to be those who believe polls like 538 in 2024 are any better than they were in 2020 and 2016 that showed results significantly different from what actually happened. Also, Biden was dead in the water as the Democratic candidate in early 2020...then he won South Carolina and ran the table to become the nominee and ultimately beat Trump.
Those who fail to learn from history are destined to repeat it: and at this point, relying on highly unreliable polling data months before the actual election is failing to learn from history. The people damaging the Democratic party's hopes of winning the 2024 election -- at this point -- are the people calling for Biden to pull out. They look like traitors....people who can't be trusted...people who want to use their money and influence to reverse an election. Frankly, they are starting to look a lot like Republicans. Biden has made it clear he isn't pulling out. Democrats need to shut up and just back the guy with all their might and political will.
So, two-thirds of us—Democrats—are traitors? That’s very helpful. The fascists are at the gate and you’re worrying about an old white man’s ego. He seems incapable of understanding, as do you, that if he stays in and Trump wins, he will be a pariah, his productive first term notwithstanding.
Well, I am a Baby Boomer (I will be 78 at the time of the election) and Biden has lost me. I cannot trust his mental ability to run this country. The man cannot even finish sentences. I would rather die than vote for Trump and I don't appreciate being forced to vote for Kennedy, but I cannot vote in good conscience for such a mentally aging senior as Biden. He is not being reasonable about running for reelection--he will drag the Democratic party down with him. At what point will ALL reason depart from his brain!? My goodness, he will have his finger on all of our ballistic missiles! If the Democrats lose the Presidency, the House, and the Senate, there will be no brake on an autocratic Trump and his cronies. If that happens, I will have to consider becoming a hermit or an ex-pat. The Democratic Party has to refuse to nominate Biden or this country is going to be in for a whole lot of trouble.
No it is democrats who will cause trump to win. If you can’t force yourself to vote for Biden who continues to do a better job than pretty much anybody else in the last 75 yrs then you are voting for trump and may I suggest you will get what you deserve
That’s a harsh response to someone voicing their opinion.
Not wanting to vote for Biden isn’t an automatic vote for trump and saying so is an attempt to guilt someone into voting how you want them to. It’s wrong and likely just turns people away from listening to anything else you might say. After all, not voting for Biden isn’t an automatic vote for Jill Stein or Cornell West or Kennedy. It’s not for trump either.
Our vote is - for now - our individual right and privilege to use as our own beliefs, feelings and ethics demand of us. It is up to each of us to use it as we see fit and can live with.
And still no one asks the question of who is making important decisions if his inner circle is carefully controlled and his son attends meetings? Did Americans vote for Jill or Hunter? Do you bring your child to work to help make decisions? Courage must be mustered to ask these types of questions because they affect the well-being of all Americans unless they’re asking but being ignored? If Americans ignore the fact that someone else is making the most important decisions affecting everyone, who wasn’t voted to rule, then what kind of democracy is it?
The picture varies from sad, to grim, to parody, an incarnation of "What fools these mortals be", yet nothing moves, nothing changes, inertia, a lack of any action is taking place, just words, that may echo round, but leave no imprint on anyone to do anything. The old rule is still the only one that works, if one seeks to do away with the king, best make is fast and quick, or the retribution, sooner or later, will befall those who felt otherwise.
He's delusional!!! 20 years from now history will see him as the worst President in US history!! He;ll have entered in the era of Trump, with both Houses of Congress, 2 or 3 more conservative Supreme Court Justices and a crazy foreign policy... such a shame! Jill Biden is his Edith Wilson, pulling all the strings!!
And by the way, don’t you think there is too much emphasis on polling, which is unreliable in an age when people mostly have cells, screen their calls, and feel no obligation to cooperate with pollsters? The old telephone etiquette is gone. If everyone self-selects for the survey randomness is too compromised in the sample and results are not as reliable as they once were. The stunning inaccuracy of the NYT daily poll in 2006 is a clear demonstration of how wrong polls are nowadays.
Hi April — there’s no evidence to suggest that polls have become less reliable in the era of cell phones. Here’s a good look at polling error over time (culminating in the most recent election cycle, 2022, when polls were quite accurate compared to previous cycles): https://fivethirtyeight.com/features/2022-election-polling-accuracy/
Hi Gabe, Thanks for the response. One of the links inside your 538 defense of polling accuracy actually supported my point in that margins of error have increased, but then I lost the article and am too lazy to search again for it. My comment was on the seductiveness of polling during a horse race and caution against over reliance upon them. You’ll notice that Allan Lichtman’s 13 Keys has only been wrong once, in 2000, and it takes no notice of polling. Thanks for your work.
By my count, President Biden has lost seven of Allan Lichtman’s keys and likely can’t win. I think many non-Boomers including solid Dems and leaners are going to boycott the election because they are disgusted that this administration has done nothing major with its first years of unified government. What’s the use of turning out if the Dems have no will or desire to really implement systemic change? This entire administration should do the right thing, as Hillary should have in 2016, and step aside for someone who can win: Pete Buttigieg. He’s got decent name recognition, zero baggage (the most important thing for American voters), and plenty of charisma. According to Pew, the anti-gay ship has long sailed. He could win and they can’t. If President Biden could find the self-control and humility to realize that it would be more courageous to step aside, maybe we could avoid another disastrous Trump term.
I think Biden’s cognitive abilities are past the stage of “self-control and humility”. (I believe he is suffering from two afflictions - an unnamed neurological disorder and cognitive decline. They may be related, but I don’t know since we aren’t told the specific neurological condition he has.)
His outright arrogant hostility towards Democrats asking him very pertinent questions shows he has lost the ability to assess his own situation and how it fits into the greater situation of our upcoming election.
VP Harris needs to put America before any blind loyalty to Biden at this point. Harris, Obama, Pelosi, Sanders & AOC need to accept the reality right in front of them and deal with it now before they are all marked by history for waffling on this and allowing America to become a trump run autocracy.
Agree with all. Just noting one very small detail: On the typewriter/computer keyboard, "5" and "%" share the same key, so it is quite possible that, in that particular instance involving rent caps, the teleprompter, instead of reading "5%", may have erroneously read "55," causing Biden's error. Deducting that one possibly misleading example, however, doesn't much change the big picture.
Agree that’s possible. But it was also a marquee policy that the White House was announcing yesterday — so it does seem like the president should be well-versed enough in his own proposals to know at least the headline details. He hesitates before saying it (which seemed to me like having difficulty reading the teleprompter, but could be because of confusion over an error), so not like he was reading it rote and didn’t realize. Even if it was a teleprompter error, still doesn’t seem great that he didn’t know the policy well enough to correct on his feet, especially if the hesitation was because he did notice it might be an error... but then decided to say what was on the teleprompter anyway
I'm not sure it's so much an issue with "accurate" polling data as it is the fact that most politicians are capable of convincing themselves that polling data doesn't really matter unless its confirming what they already believe. I just posted on this topic today actually (https://thepathlesstruth.substack.com/p/the-polls-are-all-wrong). Yes, Biden clearly wasn't getting the information he needed, but the greater systemic issue is that our primary means of real-time representation (i.e. polling) is too easily dismissed as inaccurate, biased, skewed by low sample size, etc. etc.
I would like more information on who would actually replace Biden and stand a true chance of beating Trump. When Schiff, for example, expresses doubts that Biden can beat Trump, OK, but let’s hear some names of candidates who could step in at such a late hour and compel the country that they are prepared to be President of the United States. With great sadness, I think there is still too much misogyny and racism for Harris to beat Trump. If not Harris, If not Biden, then who?
Doesn’t anyone remember that the pundits and polls were wrong in 2016 2020 and 2022. We were gonna have a red wave and republicans were gonna sweep the house and the senate and gee Hillary was a shoe in until the last minute. I respectfully suggest that lots of folks like me don’t answer their cell phones unless the caller is identified. And even is old folks don’t have lots of land lines anymore. Polling has been suspect for at least the last 8 years. And until they identify polls in caller id I doubt they will get an accurate picture of either democrats or independents.
Hi Bev — polls are not perfect, certainly, but I think they were closer in all three of those cycles than you might realize. In 2016, the final RealClearPolitics polling average had Clinton up 3.2%. She won the popular vote by 2.1%. In 2020, the RCP average had Biden up 7.2%. He won by 4.5%. In 2022, the RCP average had Republicans winning the nationwide House popular vote by 2.5%. They won by 2.8%. In many of these cases, state polls weren’t as accurate as the national polls, but I would argue that the issue was much more often people’s inaccurate interpretation of the polls, than the polls themselves.
Gabe, I think the bigger issue is the lack of consistent trust in polls among both the population and political class. Bev's comment reflects that perception. There are a combination of factors that produce this perception, which I wrote about recently (https://thepathlesstruth.substack.com/p/the-polls-are-all-wrong). TLDR: I think our polling infrastructure needs a 21st Century overhaul/upgrade to provide a more consistently accurate "representation" of the people's sentiments. Otherwise they will continue to be mistrusted and dismissed by a large chunk of the population and politicians alike.
Hey Gabe -- could you give Biden A free subscription???
I’ve always assumed he’s already subscribed under a pseudonym... 😉
Let's hope so but just in case, slip a copy of the latest number under the door of his bedroom -- maybe that's the only way he'll know the reality 😒
As always, thank you for your clear eyed reporting Gabe. It is very much needed.
Ruth Baden Ginsburg ruined her legacy by staying to long. Biden seems destined to do the same thing. Makes me very sad - and very worried.
Very sad. Biden’s hubris is going to lead to the reelection of Trump and possibly a sweep in Congress.
The DNC should change the rules allowing for challenges even now. Biden MUST be removed. It is absolute mandatory. I’ve made a list and asked friends to call and write their representatives. I called Pelosi’s office too. They have to hear from us!!!
Although some people who are dealing with memory loss realize it is happening, many people who are suffering memory problems do NOT realize that it is happening to them. Which is it for Biden? That's the flaw is saying let Biden himself decide.
Let's be fair: the people suffering from memory loss seem to be those who believe polls like 538 in 2024 are any better than they were in 2020 and 2016 that showed results significantly different from what actually happened. Also, Biden was dead in the water as the Democratic candidate in early 2020...then he won South Carolina and ran the table to become the nominee and ultimately beat Trump.
Those who fail to learn from history are destined to repeat it: and at this point, relying on highly unreliable polling data months before the actual election is failing to learn from history. The people damaging the Democratic party's hopes of winning the 2024 election -- at this point -- are the people calling for Biden to pull out. They look like traitors....people who can't be trusted...people who want to use their money and influence to reverse an election. Frankly, they are starting to look a lot like Republicans. Biden has made it clear he isn't pulling out. Democrats need to shut up and just back the guy with all their might and political will.
So, two-thirds of us—Democrats—are traitors? That’s very helpful. The fascists are at the gate and you’re worrying about an old white man’s ego. He seems incapable of understanding, as do you, that if he stays in and Trump wins, he will be a pariah, his productive first term notwithstanding.
Well, I am a Baby Boomer (I will be 78 at the time of the election) and Biden has lost me. I cannot trust his mental ability to run this country. The man cannot even finish sentences. I would rather die than vote for Trump and I don't appreciate being forced to vote for Kennedy, but I cannot vote in good conscience for such a mentally aging senior as Biden. He is not being reasonable about running for reelection--he will drag the Democratic party down with him. At what point will ALL reason depart from his brain!? My goodness, he will have his finger on all of our ballistic missiles! If the Democrats lose the Presidency, the House, and the Senate, there will be no brake on an autocratic Trump and his cronies. If that happens, I will have to consider becoming a hermit or an ex-pat. The Democratic Party has to refuse to nominate Biden or this country is going to be in for a whole lot of trouble.
No it is democrats who will cause trump to win. If you can’t force yourself to vote for Biden who continues to do a better job than pretty much anybody else in the last 75 yrs then you are voting for trump and may I suggest you will get what you deserve
That’s a harsh response to someone voicing their opinion.
Not wanting to vote for Biden isn’t an automatic vote for trump and saying so is an attempt to guilt someone into voting how you want them to. It’s wrong and likely just turns people away from listening to anything else you might say. After all, not voting for Biden isn’t an automatic vote for Jill Stein or Cornell West or Kennedy. It’s not for trump either.
Our vote is - for now - our individual right and privilege to use as our own beliefs, feelings and ethics demand of us. It is up to each of us to use it as we see fit and can live with.
And still no one asks the question of who is making important decisions if his inner circle is carefully controlled and his son attends meetings? Did Americans vote for Jill or Hunter? Do you bring your child to work to help make decisions? Courage must be mustered to ask these types of questions because they affect the well-being of all Americans unless they’re asking but being ignored? If Americans ignore the fact that someone else is making the most important decisions affecting everyone, who wasn’t voted to rule, then what kind of democracy is it?
The picture varies from sad, to grim, to parody, an incarnation of "What fools these mortals be", yet nothing moves, nothing changes, inertia, a lack of any action is taking place, just words, that may echo round, but leave no imprint on anyone to do anything. The old rule is still the only one that works, if one seeks to do away with the king, best make is fast and quick, or the retribution, sooner or later, will befall those who felt otherwise.
He's delusional!!! 20 years from now history will see him as the worst President in US history!! He;ll have entered in the era of Trump, with both Houses of Congress, 2 or 3 more conservative Supreme Court Justices and a crazy foreign policy... such a shame! Jill Biden is his Edith Wilson, pulling all the strings!!
And by the way, don’t you think there is too much emphasis on polling, which is unreliable in an age when people mostly have cells, screen their calls, and feel no obligation to cooperate with pollsters? The old telephone etiquette is gone. If everyone self-selects for the survey randomness is too compromised in the sample and results are not as reliable as they once were. The stunning inaccuracy of the NYT daily poll in 2006 is a clear demonstration of how wrong polls are nowadays.
Hi April — there’s no evidence to suggest that polls have become less reliable in the era of cell phones. Here’s a good look at polling error over time (culminating in the most recent election cycle, 2022, when polls were quite accurate compared to previous cycles): https://fivethirtyeight.com/features/2022-election-polling-accuracy/
Hi Gabe, Thanks for the response. One of the links inside your 538 defense of polling accuracy actually supported my point in that margins of error have increased, but then I lost the article and am too lazy to search again for it. My comment was on the seductiveness of polling during a horse race and caution against over reliance upon them. You’ll notice that Allan Lichtman’s 13 Keys has only been wrong once, in 2000, and it takes no notice of polling. Thanks for your work.
By my count, President Biden has lost seven of Allan Lichtman’s keys and likely can’t win. I think many non-Boomers including solid Dems and leaners are going to boycott the election because they are disgusted that this administration has done nothing major with its first years of unified government. What’s the use of turning out if the Dems have no will or desire to really implement systemic change? This entire administration should do the right thing, as Hillary should have in 2016, and step aside for someone who can win: Pete Buttigieg. He’s got decent name recognition, zero baggage (the most important thing for American voters), and plenty of charisma. According to Pew, the anti-gay ship has long sailed. He could win and they can’t. If President Biden could find the self-control and humility to realize that it would be more courageous to step aside, maybe we could avoid another disastrous Trump term.
I think Biden’s cognitive abilities are past the stage of “self-control and humility”. (I believe he is suffering from two afflictions - an unnamed neurological disorder and cognitive decline. They may be related, but I don’t know since we aren’t told the specific neurological condition he has.)
His outright arrogant hostility towards Democrats asking him very pertinent questions shows he has lost the ability to assess his own situation and how it fits into the greater situation of our upcoming election.
VP Harris needs to put America before any blind loyalty to Biden at this point. Harris, Obama, Pelosi, Sanders & AOC need to accept the reality right in front of them and deal with it now before they are all marked by history for waffling on this and allowing America to become a trump run autocracy.
Agree with all. Just noting one very small detail: On the typewriter/computer keyboard, "5" and "%" share the same key, so it is quite possible that, in that particular instance involving rent caps, the teleprompter, instead of reading "5%", may have erroneously read "55," causing Biden's error. Deducting that one possibly misleading example, however, doesn't much change the big picture.
Agree that’s possible. But it was also a marquee policy that the White House was announcing yesterday — so it does seem like the president should be well-versed enough in his own proposals to know at least the headline details. He hesitates before saying it (which seemed to me like having difficulty reading the teleprompter, but could be because of confusion over an error), so not like he was reading it rote and didn’t realize. Even if it was a teleprompter error, still doesn’t seem great that he didn’t know the policy well enough to correct on his feet, especially if the hesitation was because he did notice it might be an error... but then decided to say what was on the teleprompter anyway
I'm not sure it's so much an issue with "accurate" polling data as it is the fact that most politicians are capable of convincing themselves that polling data doesn't really matter unless its confirming what they already believe. I just posted on this topic today actually (https://thepathlesstruth.substack.com/p/the-polls-are-all-wrong). Yes, Biden clearly wasn't getting the information he needed, but the greater systemic issue is that our primary means of real-time representation (i.e. polling) is too easily dismissed as inaccurate, biased, skewed by low sample size, etc. etc.
I would like more information on who would actually replace Biden and stand a true chance of beating Trump. When Schiff, for example, expresses doubts that Biden can beat Trump, OK, but let’s hear some names of candidates who could step in at such a late hour and compel the country that they are prepared to be President of the United States. With great sadness, I think there is still too much misogyny and racism for Harris to beat Trump. If not Harris, If not Biden, then who?
Doesn’t anyone remember that the pundits and polls were wrong in 2016 2020 and 2022. We were gonna have a red wave and republicans were gonna sweep the house and the senate and gee Hillary was a shoe in until the last minute. I respectfully suggest that lots of folks like me don’t answer their cell phones unless the caller is identified. And even is old folks don’t have lots of land lines anymore. Polling has been suspect for at least the last 8 years. And until they identify polls in caller id I doubt they will get an accurate picture of either democrats or independents.
Hi Bev — polls are not perfect, certainly, but I think they were closer in all three of those cycles than you might realize. In 2016, the final RealClearPolitics polling average had Clinton up 3.2%. She won the popular vote by 2.1%. In 2020, the RCP average had Biden up 7.2%. He won by 4.5%. In 2022, the RCP average had Republicans winning the nationwide House popular vote by 2.5%. They won by 2.8%. In many of these cases, state polls weren’t as accurate as the national polls, but I would argue that the issue was much more often people’s inaccurate interpretation of the polls, than the polls themselves.
Gabe, I think the bigger issue is the lack of consistent trust in polls among both the population and political class. Bev's comment reflects that perception. There are a combination of factors that produce this perception, which I wrote about recently (https://thepathlesstruth.substack.com/p/the-polls-are-all-wrong). TLDR: I think our polling infrastructure needs a 21st Century overhaul/upgrade to provide a more consistently accurate "representation" of the people's sentiments. Otherwise they will continue to be mistrusted and dismissed by a large chunk of the population and politicians alike.