Is It Legal to Subpoena Reporters?
And: Does Lindsey Graham’s death create an opening for Democrats in South Carolina?
Happy Friday! I’ve got a jam-packed mailbag edition for you this morning. We’ll be tackling:
The legality of issuing subpoenas to reporters
Whether Lindsey Graham’s death could make the South Carolina Senate race more competitive
Why Kentucky’s Democratic governor couldn’t appoint an interim senator if Mitch McConnell dies or resigns
How Trump is able to ask the Supreme Court for a do-over in the E. Jean Carroll case
Before we dive in, I always try to flag the latest movements coming out of Capitol Hill. This week, the Senate Health Committee approved the bipartisan INSULIN Act, which would cap the out-of-pocket cost of insulin at $35/month for Americans on private health insurance. The Senate Commerce Committee passed the bipartisan Connected Vehicle Security Act, which would ban vehicles from being sold in the U.S. that are made in China or use internet-connected vehicle technologies that are tied to China.
The House voted to approve a stopgap bill to fund the government through December, a budget resolution to set up the next GOP reconciliation effort, the annual defense policy bill, and a resolution to end the war in Iran. (All four were largely along party lines, though you can guess which one of the four saw Democrats in the majority and Republicans mostly in the minority.) The chamber also approved the Stop Insider Trading Act, which would prohibit members of Congress from trading individual stocks and require voters to provide photo ID in all federal elections. All Republicans and 13 Democrats voted for that one.
Also: Don’t forget to check out my latest YouTube video, on disappearing members of Congress…
Now, let’s answer some questions…
Q: Do you see any modest benefit to the Democratic candidate in the SC Senate race as a result of the decision by Darline Graham, a close relative with no political experience, to run? Do any past electoral precedents provide you with any indicators?
Let me start by saying that Republicans are heavily favored to win the South Carolina Senate race in November, no matter who their candidate is. But is it possible that the race could be a little closer with Darline Graham on the ballot instead of her late brother Lindsey? Yes, it is.
Appointed senators are typically not accorded the same incumbent advantage that elected senators are. According to a Wake Up To Politics analysis, in the 21st century, 87% of Senate incumbents who run for re-election win. (That stat is worth pausing on for a moment: once someone enters the Senate, it is very difficult to oust them until they die or retire.) Over the same timespan, if you shrink that universe to just appointed senators (a sample size of 18), the rate of re-election shrinks to 78% of those who sought another term, still very high but noticeably lower.
One recent parallel that could potentially be drawn is Kelly Loeffler, who was also appointed to the Senate (from Georgia) in 2019 with significant political connections (she was a top Republican donor) but no previous political experience. When she tried to run for Senate in her own right the next year, she was defeated by Raphael Warnock.
However, Georgia and South Carolina — though neighbors — are very different politically. South Carolina has a larger rural population (32% vs. Georgia’s 26%) and a smaller Black population (24% vs. Georgia’s 32%). It is a much redder state (Trump won South Carolina by 18 percentage points in 2024), enough so that any Republican on the ballot will probably win.
One other thing I’ll note, though, is that appointed senators also sometimes struggle to win primary elections. (One recent example is Luther Strange, who was appointed to the Senate in 2017, but lost the special Republican primary election that year to Roy Moore, who went on to lose the general election to Democrat Doug Jones.) Trump has endorsed Darline Graham, but that hasn’t stopped two Republican House members (Ralph Norman and Russell Fry) from running against her for the nomination.
We only have limited polling so far, but it doesn’t seem like Darline Graham is about to waltz right to the GOP nomination. In the three polls that have been conducted so far, Graham came in either second or third place. This might just reflect her low name recognition; perhaps once she runs an ad or two boasting about Trump’s endorsement, the tides will shift.
Then again, we don’t have to go back very far to see an example of Republican primary voters in South Carolina rejecting a Trump-endorsed candidate: just last month, his preferred gubernatorial candidate, Lt. Gov. Pamela Evette, was forced into a runoff with state Attorney General Alan Wilson. A few weeks later, Wilson beat Evette for the nomination. In between the first and second rounds of voting, Trump changed his endorsement to say he was actually backing both Evette and Wilson (the only two candidates in the runoff). But we can read between the lines: Trump saw that his candidate was going to lose, so he made it seem like he backed both options. The candidate he initially promoted (Evette) did not become the nominee.
(Also, for that matter, to go back to the Luther Strange/Roy Moore example, Trump endorsed Strange in that primary, and Republican voters ended up rejecting his preferred option.)
Lindsey Graham was already viewed with skepticism by some in the South Carolina Republican base; his sister, who has no voting record to speak of, may be seen with even more suspicion. If she does win her primary, however, she will be the overwhelming favorite to keep her seat — even if her race against Democratic nominee Annie Andrews might be a few points closer than if her brother was running, considering the penalty sometimes accorded to appointed incumbents.
Q: I’m curious about your thoughts on the investigation of NYT reporters who wrote about the president’s plane. Is that investigation into the free press the first of its kind, or have other administrations attempted it? Is the current administration’s relationship with the press the “worst” compared to any other?