Great job on breaking down the early voting numbers; I've been seeing them mentioned recently but wasn’t sure how to interpret them. I find that incredibly helpful.
However, I’m puzzled by how you portray statements like "Trump’s former chief of staff John Kelly said that the former president 'prefers the dictator approach to government,'” and “Trump once asked him why American generals weren’t more like Hitler’s,” as reputable facts.
In contrast to the phrasing "More plagiarism allegations surfaced against Harris".
This inconsistency suggests a bias in how you present different stories. I've noticed it before and didn't say anything but this close to the election makes misinformation a problem.
Its a similar trap that progressive journalists unfortunately fell for with the Hunter Biden laptop story. A great number of journalists joyfully trumpeted that the laptop was misinformation and cited 51 intelligence officials as their sources... and I think its as clear today, as it was then to any unbiased onlooker, that the laptop was not only real but explicitly covered up with lying partisan sources.
So we have stories like the John Kelly one you mentioned that declare Trump in one way or another—always behind closed doors with some disgruntled party who was either fired by Trump or hates his guts present—said he admires Hitler, the Third Reich, white nationalism, and is going to crown himself dictator of the realm. Maybe its true, I don't know and neither does anybody outside of that room. The story is important and deserves to be covered, no doubt, but to state the Kelly story with conviction while the plagiarism accusations against Kamala Harris are downplayed and merely label as "alleged."... when they can be confirmed with a cntrl + f on a wikipedia page! She has been caught in writing plagiarizing.
She was caught using teleprompters when she shouldn't of and dropping out of interviews early. This is the stuff that matters and needs to be stated with conviction. Similar to how JD Vance back pedaled his criticisms of Trump, and I saw that you stated that clearly and with conviction—as you should. This kind of pick and choose coverage turns off independents like myself and half the people I've forwarded this newsletter to. To put it bluntly, it seems like you are intentionally twisting things 13 days ahead of an election and its reminiscent of how the aforementioned Hunter Biden laptop story was covered. I guess I have to resign myself to the fact that everywhere I go to get my political news I am going to encounter spin.
Its not only the above examples but numerous others over the past few weeks but I digress. It's your substack afterall and you can present it how you wish, but I follow you for unbiased journalism and it's disappointing to see this inconsistency.
Well then listen to what trump actually says during his rallies and when he’s interviewed even by friendly folks. His words about folks like Putin and what he plans to do about rounding up thousands of immigrants and how bloody that will be as he incarcerates and deports them. Or how he thinks police should use unfettered violence on people they arrest or wanting to be a dictator on day one or how he intends to use the military to eliminate these horrible liberals like Pelosi and Schiff. Then go read or listen to translations of Hitler’s speeches. Then try to tell me that these are things just said in front of a single person so it’s just hearsay that he wants to be like hitler. You are conflating looking for truth and looking for excuses
Can’t believe I’m defending Gabe on this but I think you need to look at the sources of the info. The Washington free Beacon isn’t exactly a non partisan source while multiple sources have reported the statements by Kelly. It is true that a retired general who worked closely with trump made those statements. It is up to you to decide whether you believe Kelley
You are creating caricatures of Trump and what he has said. I used to fall for it myself but then I realized it pushes independents away from the Democratic Party, not towards. And this is my big problem with the journalism/audience echo chamber going on here. Fact check yourself. "His words about folks like Putin and what he plans to do about rounding up thousands of immigrants and how bloody that will be as he incarcerates and deports them" you are helping Trump by making progressives look ridiculous!
You are also carrying water for a candidate that is so unpopular she would have never gotten the nomination outside of the current incumbent being forced behind the scenes by the party leaders to step down in a quite undemocratic way. We should have somebody like Josh Shapiro or Gretchen Whitmer right now. Not this awkward stick in the mud. Even if her policies are good, and her winning would be a net positive for the country, we still have to admit that the simple fact... because everybody knows it. A winning message is: "I will make this country better with X, Y, Z" not "Trump is Hitler and he makes love to Putin also he wants to be a dictator and beat and bloody all the immigrants". We already had 4 years of him and none of those things happened.
Why can't we admit both these candidates suck without pushing stories that have zero evidence from clearly disaffected ex-cabinet members who were fired? We are losing people.
I'm not interested in conflating Hitler and Trump. It doesn't help us win. Try reading a book on Hitler and/or WW2 and you will see how ridiculous you sound. Start with William Shirer, John Toland or Keegan. Everybody that tries this intense flowery rhetoric strategy clearly doesn't have friends that have switched over from the Democratic party. And they also haven't done the necessary reading. To say everything that a guy does likens him to Hitler diminishes the atrocity of Hitler's reign over Europe and simultaneously makes the Democratic party seem ridiculous—which pushes independents toward Trump.
This rhetoric is part of the reason Kamala is at best a 50-50 shot to win right now. Far worse if you look at betting markets. I'm in a mostly liberal area with liberal friends and over half of them are now voting republican -- they all voted Biden 4 years ago. This Hitler and "save democracy" rhetoric prior to, and following the assassination attempt is a yuuuuuge turnoff.
Just a few of the reasons I've heard they are not staying blue: I can't find a job and people tell me the economy is great, I'm tired of being called racist/sexist/walking on eggshells when my life is hard enough as is, my kids paid half a million dollars for a college degree that lands a job making 65k which is half of what it was worth in 2003, my grocery bills and rent doubled from what they were 6 years ago.
If you want Kamala to win we can't run with the "Trump is Hitler get in our big tent" as the defining message. If you can't see this simple fact I don't know what to tell you. You've got to go talk to people because nobody outside the extreme progressives believes this stuff anymore. Its wishful thinking. Continue to repeat talking points and push BS stories like the John Kelley one and watch what happens election day.
Like I said: it's good this Kelly story is being covered. I have no idea if it happened or if John Kelly is getting his licks in so he can position himself for a cabinet position in the Harris administration. If its true this is a big deal!
But nobody knows because there is no evidence other than he said she said. There isn't a recording, a transcript, nothing. It is the same as the "losers and suckers" nonsense. Without evidence I think we should treat these things as purely speculative. Certainly moreso than the Kamala plagiarism story and Walz lying.
Saying Trump wants to act like Hitler and admires the former dictator is a huge thing to put out there. Election changing. And to treat it as something we can just assume to be true despite a complete and utter lack of evidence is pretty poor journalistic malpractice.
Think about it like this. Hunter Biden's laptop was also covered with this "allegedly" framing. So was the Walz lying about innumerable pieces of his past. And yet when it comes to reports from people that were fired by Trump saying: "Trump views himself as Hitler and admires the third reich generals" we treat that as gospel. This is a partisan takedowns with a clear aim. Protect the ball when it comes to my side. Its the same thing as Trump/Vance talking about Haitian migrants eating dogs which was horrific and racist!
I just want a fair game and a substack where I can get both sides. I thought I had it when I was initially shown this thing but now its obvious thats not the case. Independent subscribers will continue to drop off and it will become an echo chamber.
The slant on nearly everything is openly anti-republican and treating the Harris/Walz ticket with kid gloves.
You’re not! MO is one of three states with that requirement. I believe if you’re sending your ballot from within the state, it’s illegal for a notary to charge you. But no such rule exists if sending one from out of state (as I was, from DC, hence the $5 cost)
Does MO verify signatures (like my state, WA, does)? If not, seems like a good strategy to replace notarization requirements, while still retaining desired security.
Thanks for the great story about the Claudene Wilson Learning Center. And thanks for the heads up about early voting info. Am resigned to we won’t know until we know and waiting. Hey don’t you live in DC now? Do you still claim MO residency? I understand students still claiming their home state but how does that work for you?
I know it will never happen (and is contrary to free speech, etc.) but I wish there could be limits on the polling or, at least, on the granularity, of the demographic info. I dislike early voting too.
I hope the legacy of Ms. Wilson will be celebrated with an explanatory plaque. I often ask kids who their school was named after and why. They rarely know. My high school was named for a prominent superintendent of West Point. Knowing that history did inform my respect for the military academies.
Hooray for all those kids and the community of Swedeborg, Missouri. We should all be like Claudene. Thanks for sharing this story, Gabe.
Great job on breaking down the early voting numbers; I've been seeing them mentioned recently but wasn’t sure how to interpret them. I find that incredibly helpful.
However, I’m puzzled by how you portray statements like "Trump’s former chief of staff John Kelly said that the former president 'prefers the dictator approach to government,'” and “Trump once asked him why American generals weren’t more like Hitler’s,” as reputable facts.
In contrast to the phrasing "More plagiarism allegations surfaced against Harris".
This inconsistency suggests a bias in how you present different stories. I've noticed it before and didn't say anything but this close to the election makes misinformation a problem.
Its a similar trap that progressive journalists unfortunately fell for with the Hunter Biden laptop story. A great number of journalists joyfully trumpeted that the laptop was misinformation and cited 51 intelligence officials as their sources... and I think its as clear today, as it was then to any unbiased onlooker, that the laptop was not only real but explicitly covered up with lying partisan sources.
So we have stories like the John Kelly one you mentioned that declare Trump in one way or another—always behind closed doors with some disgruntled party who was either fired by Trump or hates his guts present—said he admires Hitler, the Third Reich, white nationalism, and is going to crown himself dictator of the realm. Maybe its true, I don't know and neither does anybody outside of that room. The story is important and deserves to be covered, no doubt, but to state the Kelly story with conviction while the plagiarism accusations against Kamala Harris are downplayed and merely label as "alleged."... when they can be confirmed with a cntrl + f on a wikipedia page! She has been caught in writing plagiarizing.
She was caught using teleprompters when she shouldn't of and dropping out of interviews early. This is the stuff that matters and needs to be stated with conviction. Similar to how JD Vance back pedaled his criticisms of Trump, and I saw that you stated that clearly and with conviction—as you should. This kind of pick and choose coverage turns off independents like myself and half the people I've forwarded this newsletter to. To put it bluntly, it seems like you are intentionally twisting things 13 days ahead of an election and its reminiscent of how the aforementioned Hunter Biden laptop story was covered. I guess I have to resign myself to the fact that everywhere I go to get my political news I am going to encounter spin.
Its not only the above examples but numerous others over the past few weeks but I digress. It's your substack afterall and you can present it how you wish, but I follow you for unbiased journalism and it's disappointing to see this inconsistency.
Well then listen to what trump actually says during his rallies and when he’s interviewed even by friendly folks. His words about folks like Putin and what he plans to do about rounding up thousands of immigrants and how bloody that will be as he incarcerates and deports them. Or how he thinks police should use unfettered violence on people they arrest or wanting to be a dictator on day one or how he intends to use the military to eliminate these horrible liberals like Pelosi and Schiff. Then go read or listen to translations of Hitler’s speeches. Then try to tell me that these are things just said in front of a single person so it’s just hearsay that he wants to be like hitler. You are conflating looking for truth and looking for excuses
Can’t believe I’m defending Gabe on this but I think you need to look at the sources of the info. The Washington free Beacon isn’t exactly a non partisan source while multiple sources have reported the statements by Kelly. It is true that a retired general who worked closely with trump made those statements. It is up to you to decide whether you believe Kelley
You are creating caricatures of Trump and what he has said. I used to fall for it myself but then I realized it pushes independents away from the Democratic Party, not towards. And this is my big problem with the journalism/audience echo chamber going on here. Fact check yourself. "His words about folks like Putin and what he plans to do about rounding up thousands of immigrants and how bloody that will be as he incarcerates and deports them" you are helping Trump by making progressives look ridiculous!
You are also carrying water for a candidate that is so unpopular she would have never gotten the nomination outside of the current incumbent being forced behind the scenes by the party leaders to step down in a quite undemocratic way. We should have somebody like Josh Shapiro or Gretchen Whitmer right now. Not this awkward stick in the mud. Even if her policies are good, and her winning would be a net positive for the country, we still have to admit that the simple fact... because everybody knows it. A winning message is: "I will make this country better with X, Y, Z" not "Trump is Hitler and he makes love to Putin also he wants to be a dictator and beat and bloody all the immigrants". We already had 4 years of him and none of those things happened.
Why can't we admit both these candidates suck without pushing stories that have zero evidence from clearly disaffected ex-cabinet members who were fired? We are losing people.
I'm not interested in conflating Hitler and Trump. It doesn't help us win. Try reading a book on Hitler and/or WW2 and you will see how ridiculous you sound. Start with William Shirer, John Toland or Keegan. Everybody that tries this intense flowery rhetoric strategy clearly doesn't have friends that have switched over from the Democratic party. And they also haven't done the necessary reading. To say everything that a guy does likens him to Hitler diminishes the atrocity of Hitler's reign over Europe and simultaneously makes the Democratic party seem ridiculous—which pushes independents toward Trump.
This rhetoric is part of the reason Kamala is at best a 50-50 shot to win right now. Far worse if you look at betting markets. I'm in a mostly liberal area with liberal friends and over half of them are now voting republican -- they all voted Biden 4 years ago. This Hitler and "save democracy" rhetoric prior to, and following the assassination attempt is a yuuuuuge turnoff.
Just a few of the reasons I've heard they are not staying blue: I can't find a job and people tell me the economy is great, I'm tired of being called racist/sexist/walking on eggshells when my life is hard enough as is, my kids paid half a million dollars for a college degree that lands a job making 65k which is half of what it was worth in 2003, my grocery bills and rent doubled from what they were 6 years ago.
If you want Kamala to win we can't run with the "Trump is Hitler get in our big tent" as the defining message. If you can't see this simple fact I don't know what to tell you. You've got to go talk to people because nobody outside the extreme progressives believes this stuff anymore. Its wishful thinking. Continue to repeat talking points and push BS stories like the John Kelley one and watch what happens election day.
You are beyond reason if you can’t listen with your own ears to his rallies and speeches. That said have a good day
Zero substantive points — all made up stories and rhetoric about Hitler and dictators.
Have a good day
Like I said: it's good this Kelly story is being covered. I have no idea if it happened or if John Kelly is getting his licks in so he can position himself for a cabinet position in the Harris administration. If its true this is a big deal!
But nobody knows because there is no evidence other than he said she said. There isn't a recording, a transcript, nothing. It is the same as the "losers and suckers" nonsense. Without evidence I think we should treat these things as purely speculative. Certainly moreso than the Kamala plagiarism story and Walz lying.
Saying Trump wants to act like Hitler and admires the former dictator is a huge thing to put out there. Election changing. And to treat it as something we can just assume to be true despite a complete and utter lack of evidence is pretty poor journalistic malpractice.
Think about it like this. Hunter Biden's laptop was also covered with this "allegedly" framing. So was the Walz lying about innumerable pieces of his past. And yet when it comes to reports from people that were fired by Trump saying: "Trump views himself as Hitler and admires the third reich generals" we treat that as gospel. This is a partisan takedowns with a clear aim. Protect the ball when it comes to my side. Its the same thing as Trump/Vance talking about Haitian migrants eating dogs which was horrific and racist!
I just want a fair game and a substack where I can get both sides. I thought I had it when I was initially shown this thing but now its obvious thats not the case. Independent subscribers will continue to drop off and it will become an echo chamber.
The slant on nearly everything is openly anti-republican and treating the Harris/Walz ticket with kid gloves.
You have to get your mail-in ballot Notarized?? That seems like quite a barrier! Am I missing something??
You’re not! MO is one of three states with that requirement. I believe if you’re sending your ballot from within the state, it’s illegal for a notary to charge you. But no such rule exists if sending one from out of state (as I was, from DC, hence the $5 cost)
Does MO verify signatures (like my state, WA, does)? If not, seems like a good strategy to replace notarization requirements, while still retaining desired security.
Thanks for the great story about the Claudene Wilson Learning Center. And thanks for the heads up about early voting info. Am resigned to we won’t know until we know and waiting. Hey don’t you live in DC now? Do you still claim MO residency? I understand students still claiming their home state but how does that work for you?
Didn’t realize there are states that reuse notarized ballots?! Aren’t notaries hard to find??
I also voted absentee in 2020, during Covid… then it certainly was. Now, wasn’t too difficult, just went to UPS.
I know it will never happen (and is contrary to free speech, etc.) but I wish there could be limits on the polling or, at least, on the granularity, of the demographic info. I dislike early voting too.
I hope the legacy of Ms. Wilson will be celebrated with an explanatory plaque. I often ask kids who their school was named after and why. They rarely know. My high school was named for a prominent superintendent of West Point. Knowing that history did inform my respect for the military academies.
The Before I go… was worth everything that came before, to get to it.
Agree completely with you that the early vote may show enthusiasm, but it gives no real sign of for who.
Hello Gabe from a fellow St. Louisan. You are doing a fantastic job. Keep up the great work!