Can We Still Trust the Polls?
Your questions, answered.
Happy Tuesday, everyone! A few housekeeping notes before we dive in:
#1: The next book in the Wake Up To Politics Book Club will be “Original Sin,” the new tome by CNN’s Jake Tapper and Axios’ Alex Thompson about Joe Biden’s cognitive state during his presidency (and efforts by his advisers to hide it), which is being released today.
I’ll be talking to Alex later this week, an interview that will be made available to paid subscribers. So I encourage everyone to buy “Original Sin” now — here’s the link — so we can all read it together and discuss.
I know this book has made a lot of waves, and is controversial in some circles. That means I want your best, toughest questions so I can ask them to Alex! Don’t be shy! This is an important issue which is difficult to hash out, and I want to hear all of your critiques — good or bad — so I can go into the interview as your representative, asking the questions you want asked. Leave comments or send me emails with your thoughts on the book and I’ll try to represent your questions in the interview.
I’ve always found WUTP readers to be unfailingly thoughtful, so I’m looking forward to hearing from you about the book and the broader issue.
#2: I’m going to be joining
for a Substack Live at 3 p.m. ET today. Ryan is a veteran D.C. journalist who has written for Politico, The New Yorker, and other publications and now writes the Substack newsletter . (Subscribe!)Here’s a link to join us at 3 p.m. ET:
As usual, it will also send you an email when we’re going live. You should be able to join on the Substack app or by desktop. See you there!
OK, now on today’s issue.
I was sick this weekend, so I wasn’t able to send out a Sunday mailbag post for paid subscribers. I’m sorry!
But I wanted to make it up to you and still do a mailbag post mid-week, since you all sent in such great questions.
This week, we’re tackling:
Whether polls can still be trusted
Whether the Supreme Court is a purely partisan body
What will happen if the court does away with nationwide injunctions
Who could sue Trump over the Qatari Air Force One
And more!
Let’s dive in…
Q: You’ve noted that 2024 was the third election where pollsters struggled to accurately capture Trump’s voter base. How can we still trust polls and continue to rely on poll-based analyses like your pieces on the “Myth of the Regretful Trump Voter” and possible Senate outcomes? I’m not entirely a poll skeptic, but if the error rate of tea leaves is so high…
As this reader notes, I frequently cite polls in this newsletter, so it’s definitely fair to ask whether we can trust the polls I’m pointing you to, considering, uh, recent events.