This is the right way to unpack the election results. We need to get out of our echo chambers to understand what really drives voters. If we think that the future will forever be 51/49 or 49/51, then we will be whipped back and forth from cycle to cycle. As you suggest, the Dems need to find leadership outside their royalty, just as the Republicans did.
I was thinking about this as I raked leaves this morning.
We need a completely different Democratic Party. One without Corporate Democrats like Pelosi whose ego gave us Biden in 2020, a man wholly unequipped to face tyranny with the urgency, fire & resolve it required. While there is so much to like about Harris, it was the wrong time to run a person who embodied so many firsts against the racist POS who was elected in response to another person who was a first. trump was racist America’s answer to our first Black president. Who really thought a Black & Indian woman would be able to beat trump? In America? A society soaked in racism, bigotry and misogyny? Seriously? (Again - I’d say Pelosi had her ego where it didn’t belong.)
Absolutely someday & it should happen and I really wish it could have happened now (so much! I’ve been fighting misogyny my entire life & am beyond sick of it. And racism. And bigotry. And economic inequality….) But right now, against trump, especially against trump, it was the wrong time. I mean absolutely no disrespect to Vice President Harris. I would vote for her again in the future. I know people have to be the firsts to try, knowing they likely won’t make it but will be an important step forward. Against trump and his racist, misogynistic cult was not the time to do that either.
America is a not-funny joke with how backwards it is with regard to racism, bigotry & misogyny. The election just proved exactly how much. In a more equal, less hate based society Harris could have easily won a Presidential race. But we are nowhere near being an equal culture & society. Not yet.
We need a new political party - one I’d like to see led by AOC. Actually, we need several new parties. The Democrats encompass a wide range of beliefs and policy goals and it makes more sense to divide it up and create a system of government that works as a coalition of the 3-4 groups with the most votes. There would still be a President but with more parties things wouldn’t become so ‘us vs them’.
We need to fix representation in the Senate to adjust to the population we have now, not what we started with 250 years ago.
The Electoral College has to go. It’s an insulting relic of slavery and has no business still being used.
All judges, especially SCOTUS, and all members of the House and Senate need term limits and ethics standards that have teeth in them for when they are ignored.
Every single person in government must undergo a psych eval when they run and once a year after that. No exceptions.
Anytime the government doesn’t do its job and shuts down, they all lose their pay and medical coverage from the moment of shutdown to when it’s over.
Our militaries and veterans who receive disability compensation should be given a raise every year that tracks with inflation. Period.
The minimum wage is raised to whatever level it needs to be for people to live without having to choose between groceries and medicine.
And speaking of medicine, the country needs to have national medical care - like Canada but run a lot better (I have a friend in BC who has explained their system & it astonishes me that can take 18 months to 3 years to get an MRI or CT scan and that is mind boggling.)
It all starts with completely reworked political parties.
How to get this started I don’t know. My degree isn’t in political science. I think it’s worth serious consideration though. We can’t keep going like we are.
Sorry if too long or if I jumped from topic to topic.
Another great column and one that addressed my greatest sadness after the election — that so many Americans would choose hate and anger. As Gabe points out they already had the anger; they just chose the candidate that best represented it. Keep up the good work, Gabe
This is what I read WUTP for. A deep look into the election that goes beyond finger pointing and the usual black and white discussion of topics that we've already heard ad nauseum.
I’ve been left wondering if the loneliness epidemic factored into Trump‘s appeal to male voters — another factor of the hangover from the pandemic. Lots of public health data on social isolation (Vivek Murthy, Surgeon General). The low trust data can correlate to unhappiness levels. Negative messaging likely resonated with this segment… giving a sense of belonging to those who feel alienated.
Who voted for Trump?
…”on some of the most crucial dimensions of American politics — age, race, income, education — the larger trend holds true: within each category, the highest-trusting group swung towards Democrats. The lowest-trusting group swung towards the GOP.”
Seems this could be key for understanding how Democrats can win votes next time. I hope that means gaining trust rather than feeding unhappiness 🤔
Trump campaign preyed on and amplified unhappiness.
Thank you. Much to contemplate here!! I wish I had confidence that the Dem party is capable of analysis and cohesive, targeted campaign. Where is the leadership and the tactical campaigning, that te Rep seems to carry out. I think I understand the appeal of Trump’s anger to the struggling voter, but don’t understand a willingness to put trust in Trump. Why do his supporters see him as trustworthy?
Since the founding of our nation nearly 250 years ago, it has been set apart from other countries by its adherence to individual rights as outlined in the Bill of Rights. This is especially observable in the areas of speech, right to assemble, and freedom of religious thought and practice. As a retired pastor, missionary, and university administrator who for 30 years lived outside of my homeland in countries that often put significant constraints on such rights, I have been greatly concerned in recent years about signs I am observing in both major U.S. political parties that suggest these rights which most Americans take for granted are coming under attack and may, indeed, be seriously endangered.
As I read your thoughtful postmortem on the 2024 election, I couldn't help but notice that you made no mention of this potentially divisive issue. I would love to see your take on the impact of first-amendment rights on this election. Were voters swayed by their perception of the candidates' stated or demonstrated support--or lack thereof--for these rights for all citizens, including those with whom the candidates may strongly disagree?
Perhaps of even greater importance for the future of our nation, what impact is this election likely to have on these rights? As you unpack the 2024 election process and results, are there any statistics or other indicators regarding the strengthening or weakening of these fundamental rights as a result of this election cycle?
Certainly a logical analysis. But I can't help but wonder if it omits the emotional aspect of voter choices. Voters choose leaders with whom they share an emotional connection. Maybe that's just another way of defining "trust". But it seems that the emotional connection appears when a person feels admiration for someone, or a desire to be like someone, which isn't the same thing as having trust in someone. If any of this is accurate, Trumps appearance, behavior and demeanor is admired by the voters who supported him. If true, a frightening prospect.
I’m hoping against hope that Joe Manchin puts in a presidential bid for the 2028 Presidency. As a West Virginian I can say without hesitancy that his track record of voting has not been about party lines, but WV’s interests. Scaled up for our nation, this is fire of the very best sort.
This stood out for me. Curious how this will affect the 2026 midterm elections?
"Polling suggests that many of the groups Trump won are fickle. (After all, the U.S. has now seen three two-term presidencies give way to three one-term presidencies, even if two of them have been led by the same man.) After raging against the incumbent, Trump will now become one. If there is any certainty in modern American politics, it is that many of the low-trust voters who poured their grievances into Trump will likely remain aggrieved, barring a stunning turnaround in the national mood or economic condition."
I'm confused by this: "Another rare group that Democrats gained among were those who make more than $100,000 a year, who went from D+15 in 2020 to R+2 in 2024, a 17-point Democratic swing."
Sorry, those were for the wrong income bracket. I’ve edited for the right numbers: “from R+12 in 2020 to D+8 in 2024, a 20-point Democratic swing.” Thanks for catching.
As a Democrat who was disheartened and turned off by what appeared to be the behind-the-scenes cover-up of Joe Biden's condition - and the complicity of legacy media - followed by a lack of any democratic process in selecting Kamala - a non-entity in my mind - 90 days is neither here nor there. Neither here nor there . . . .
Essentially if you like a Substack article (or even just a snippet, a quote from it) that you want to share with anyone following you here, you can restack it (and if you like, also add a note to preface it). Anything you restack will be posted to your profile here. I do it mostly so I can return to an article of interest to myself for future reference. If I had subscribers or followers they can see it, although I think there's a way to turn that off.
"If there is any certainty in modern American politics, it is that many of the low-trust voters who poured their grievances into Trump will likely remain aggrieved, barring a stunning turnaround in the national mood or economic condition."
The Trump administration will be held accountable in 2 years if we do not have a dictatorship by then. Trump my fade away Scott free, but if the party does not deliver, watch out. You do not get to make a lot of excuses if you have a majority in 3 branches of government.
I’d be interested in seeing your analysis of the impact of sexism and misogyny on the presidential race outcome. So many of the comments of undecided voters, doubting whether Harris had the experience or toughness in spite of her CV, sounded very much like they were rooted in a discomfort with having a woman in the role of president. And some post election analysis has said she ran an emotional campaign lacking substance, again a classic criticism leveled at women.
This is a brilliant article and a cogent explanation of the reasons behind the simple generalizations about the election results. It expains the reasons behind the education gap and why Democrats have been losing much of their traditional working class support.
This is the right way to unpack the election results. We need to get out of our echo chambers to understand what really drives voters. If we think that the future will forever be 51/49 or 49/51, then we will be whipped back and forth from cycle to cycle. As you suggest, the Dems need to find leadership outside their royalty, just as the Republicans did.
I was thinking about this as I raked leaves this morning.
We need a completely different Democratic Party. One without Corporate Democrats like Pelosi whose ego gave us Biden in 2020, a man wholly unequipped to face tyranny with the urgency, fire & resolve it required. While there is so much to like about Harris, it was the wrong time to run a person who embodied so many firsts against the racist POS who was elected in response to another person who was a first. trump was racist America’s answer to our first Black president. Who really thought a Black & Indian woman would be able to beat trump? In America? A society soaked in racism, bigotry and misogyny? Seriously? (Again - I’d say Pelosi had her ego where it didn’t belong.)
Absolutely someday & it should happen and I really wish it could have happened now (so much! I’ve been fighting misogyny my entire life & am beyond sick of it. And racism. And bigotry. And economic inequality….) But right now, against trump, especially against trump, it was the wrong time. I mean absolutely no disrespect to Vice President Harris. I would vote for her again in the future. I know people have to be the firsts to try, knowing they likely won’t make it but will be an important step forward. Against trump and his racist, misogynistic cult was not the time to do that either.
America is a not-funny joke with how backwards it is with regard to racism, bigotry & misogyny. The election just proved exactly how much. In a more equal, less hate based society Harris could have easily won a Presidential race. But we are nowhere near being an equal culture & society. Not yet.
We need a new political party - one I’d like to see led by AOC. Actually, we need several new parties. The Democrats encompass a wide range of beliefs and policy goals and it makes more sense to divide it up and create a system of government that works as a coalition of the 3-4 groups with the most votes. There would still be a President but with more parties things wouldn’t become so ‘us vs them’.
We need to fix representation in the Senate to adjust to the population we have now, not what we started with 250 years ago.
The Electoral College has to go. It’s an insulting relic of slavery and has no business still being used.
All judges, especially SCOTUS, and all members of the House and Senate need term limits and ethics standards that have teeth in them for when they are ignored.
Every single person in government must undergo a psych eval when they run and once a year after that. No exceptions.
Anytime the government doesn’t do its job and shuts down, they all lose their pay and medical coverage from the moment of shutdown to when it’s over.
Our militaries and veterans who receive disability compensation should be given a raise every year that tracks with inflation. Period.
The minimum wage is raised to whatever level it needs to be for people to live without having to choose between groceries and medicine.
And speaking of medicine, the country needs to have national medical care - like Canada but run a lot better (I have a friend in BC who has explained their system & it astonishes me that can take 18 months to 3 years to get an MRI or CT scan and that is mind boggling.)
It all starts with completely reworked political parties.
How to get this started I don’t know. My degree isn’t in political science. I think it’s worth serious consideration though. We can’t keep going like we are.
Sorry if too long or if I jumped from topic to topic.
There were a lot of leaves to rake.
Another great column and one that addressed my greatest sadness after the election — that so many Americans would choose hate and anger. As Gabe points out they already had the anger; they just chose the candidate that best represented it. Keep up the good work, Gabe
This is what I read WUTP for. A deep look into the election that goes beyond finger pointing and the usual black and white discussion of topics that we've already heard ad nauseum.
Great data here, Gabe!
I’ve been left wondering if the loneliness epidemic factored into Trump‘s appeal to male voters — another factor of the hangover from the pandemic. Lots of public health data on social isolation (Vivek Murthy, Surgeon General). The low trust data can correlate to unhappiness levels. Negative messaging likely resonated with this segment… giving a sense of belonging to those who feel alienated.
Who voted for Trump?
…”on some of the most crucial dimensions of American politics — age, race, income, education — the larger trend holds true: within each category, the highest-trusting group swung towards Democrats. The lowest-trusting group swung towards the GOP.”
Seems this could be key for understanding how Democrats can win votes next time. I hope that means gaining trust rather than feeding unhappiness 🤔
Trump campaign preyed on and amplified unhappiness.
I've been thinking about this as well.
Thank you. Much to contemplate here!! I wish I had confidence that the Dem party is capable of analysis and cohesive, targeted campaign. Where is the leadership and the tactical campaigning, that te Rep seems to carry out. I think I understand the appeal of Trump’s anger to the struggling voter, but don’t understand a willingness to put trust in Trump. Why do his supporters see him as trustworthy?
Since the founding of our nation nearly 250 years ago, it has been set apart from other countries by its adherence to individual rights as outlined in the Bill of Rights. This is especially observable in the areas of speech, right to assemble, and freedom of religious thought and practice. As a retired pastor, missionary, and university administrator who for 30 years lived outside of my homeland in countries that often put significant constraints on such rights, I have been greatly concerned in recent years about signs I am observing in both major U.S. political parties that suggest these rights which most Americans take for granted are coming under attack and may, indeed, be seriously endangered.
As I read your thoughtful postmortem on the 2024 election, I couldn't help but notice that you made no mention of this potentially divisive issue. I would love to see your take on the impact of first-amendment rights on this election. Were voters swayed by their perception of the candidates' stated or demonstrated support--or lack thereof--for these rights for all citizens, including those with whom the candidates may strongly disagree?
Perhaps of even greater importance for the future of our nation, what impact is this election likely to have on these rights? As you unpack the 2024 election process and results, are there any statistics or other indicators regarding the strengthening or weakening of these fundamental rights as a result of this election cycle?
Certainly a logical analysis. But I can't help but wonder if it omits the emotional aspect of voter choices. Voters choose leaders with whom they share an emotional connection. Maybe that's just another way of defining "trust". But it seems that the emotional connection appears when a person feels admiration for someone, or a desire to be like someone, which isn't the same thing as having trust in someone. If any of this is accurate, Trumps appearance, behavior and demeanor is admired by the voters who supported him. If true, a frightening prospect.
I’m hoping against hope that Joe Manchin puts in a presidential bid for the 2028 Presidency. As a West Virginian I can say without hesitancy that his track record of voting has not been about party lines, but WV’s interests. Scaled up for our nation, this is fire of the very best sort.
Thank you Gabe. Excellent reporting as usual.
This stood out for me. Curious how this will affect the 2026 midterm elections?
"Polling suggests that many of the groups Trump won are fickle. (After all, the U.S. has now seen three two-term presidencies give way to three one-term presidencies, even if two of them have been led by the same man.) After raging against the incumbent, Trump will now become one. If there is any certainty in modern American politics, it is that many of the low-trust voters who poured their grievances into Trump will likely remain aggrieved, barring a stunning turnaround in the national mood or economic condition."
I'm confused by this: "Another rare group that Democrats gained among were those who make more than $100,000 a year, who went from D+15 in 2020 to R+2 in 2024, a 17-point Democratic swing."
Sorry, those were for the wrong income bracket. I’ve edited for the right numbers: “from R+12 in 2020 to D+8 in 2024, a 20-point Democratic swing.” Thanks for catching.
The Harris/Walz campaign only had 90 days to introduce themselves. We Will be better prepared in 2028. Thank You, Gabe and will reStack ASAP 💯
As a Democrat who was disheartened and turned off by what appeared to be the behind-the-scenes cover-up of Joe Biden's condition - and the complicity of legacy media - followed by a lack of any democratic process in selecting Kamala - a non-entity in my mind - 90 days is neither here nor there. Neither here nor there . . . .
May I ask - what does reStack mean? Thanks.
https://support.substack.com/hc/en-us/articles/30285743283860-What-happens-when-someone-restacks-my-post
Essentially if you like a Substack article (or even just a snippet, a quote from it) that you want to share with anyone following you here, you can restack it (and if you like, also add a note to preface it). Anything you restack will be posted to your profile here. I do it mostly so I can return to an article of interest to myself for future reference. If I had subscribers or followers they can see it, although I think there's a way to turn that off.
It's short for forwarding a "stack" which is an article, Post or Note
"If there is any certainty in modern American politics, it is that many of the low-trust voters who poured their grievances into Trump will likely remain aggrieved, barring a stunning turnaround in the national mood or economic condition."
The Trump administration will be held accountable in 2 years if we do not have a dictatorship by then. Trump my fade away Scott free, but if the party does not deliver, watch out. You do not get to make a lot of excuses if you have a majority in 3 branches of government.
The only thing that exceeds the pissed-off anger of the low trusters is their pride in being independent and going solo.
I’d be interested in seeing your analysis of the impact of sexism and misogyny on the presidential race outcome. So many of the comments of undecided voters, doubting whether Harris had the experience or toughness in spite of her CV, sounded very much like they were rooted in a discomfort with having a woman in the role of president. And some post election analysis has said she ran an emotional campaign lacking substance, again a classic criticism leveled at women.
This is a brilliant article and a cogent explanation of the reasons behind the simple generalizations about the election results. It expains the reasons behind the education gap and why Democrats have been losing much of their traditional working class support.
You absolutely nailed it!