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Wake Up To Politics - October 27, 2015

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Tuesday, October 27, 2015
378 Days until Election Day 2016
97 Days until the Iowa Caucuses
7 Days until Election Day 2015It's Tuesday, October 27, 2015, I'm Gabe Fleisher for Wake Up To Politics, and reporting from WUTP world HQ in my bedroom - Good morning: THIS IS YOUR WAKE UP CALL!!!
To send me questions, comments, tips, new subscribers, and more: email me at wakeuptopolitics@gmail.com. To learn more about WUTP and subscribe, visit the site: wakeuptopolitics.com, or like me on Twitter and Facebook. More ways to engage with WUTP at the bottom.    Capitol Hill News

  • GOP Lawmakers, White House Strike Massive Budget Deal Just before midnight Monday, House Republican leaders released their 144-page, two-year budget deal with the White House, the last budget battle for both John Boehner and Barack Obama.
  • The agreement “would increase spending by $80 billion over two years and would increase the federal borrowing limit through March 15, 2017,” according to the Washington Post.
  • The spending increase will be seen in both defense and domestic programs, and is offset by changes to the Social Security Disability Insurance fund and Medicare provider payments. In addition to the $80 billion increase ($50 billion in Year 1, $30 billion for the second year this agreement will be in effect), the bill calls for a $16 billion increase each year for the  Overseas Contingency Operations fund, an emergency war deposit.
  • Meanwhile, the deal also extends the U.S. borrowing – an action required much more immediately: if Congress does not raise the debt limit by November 3, the United States will default on its debt.
  • The current spending vehicle for the U.S. government is a stopgap measure that lasts until December 11; this measure funds the government through September 30, 2017.
  • With the debt ceiling raised until March 2017, and the government through September 2017, this budget agreement represents the end of an era: the Obama-Boehner budget battles. President Barack Obama leaves office before both of those deadlines, in January 2017; House Speaker John Boehner gives up his gavel Friday.
  • House Ways and Means Committee chairman Paul Ryan (R-WI) is expected to be chosen as Boehner’s successor in a House vote Thursday; by then, Republican leaders hope the spending plan will already have cleared the lower chamber, freeing Ryan’s reign as Speaker from the constant budget negotiations and government shutdowns that plagued Boehner’s four years as Speaker. With the budget agreement passed, Ryan will have a luxury Boehner never had: two years without need to fund the government or extend the borrowing limit.
  • That is, if the budget agreement is passed. Many House conservatives have already announced opposition to the plan, although Wednesday passage is still expected; Senate Republicans appear more agreeable to the agreement, and will likely clear it from their chamber later this week.
  • Today in the House The lower chamber will hold a final vote on reauthorization of the Export-Import Bank, the official U.S. export credit agency, which has gone unauthorized by Congress since July.
  • Both House Republican leadership and House conservatives are opposed to the agency’s reauthorization, and the measure only reached the House floor by use of a discharge petition.
  • The “discharge petition” is a procedural maneuver which can “discharge” bills from committee to the House floor, without the consent of the committee chairman (although 218 votes, a majority of the House, is needed).
  • 62 House Republicans went against their leadership and joined all 184 House Democrats in the Monday discharge vote; the petition passed the chamber 246-177.
  • Discharge petitions rarely succeed: only 27 have previously brought upon a vote on the House floor; the Export-Import bill was the first since a petition for the McCain-Feingold campaign finance bill in January 2002 to be successful.
  • Proponents of the Export-Import Bank can’t get too excited yet, though: the measure still must be passed by the Senate, where Majority Leader Mitch McConnell fiercely opposes reauthorization of the agency.
  • Today in the Senate The upper chamber will hold a vote on final passage of the Cybersecurity Information Sharing Act of 2015 (CISA).
  • With the House already having passed the legislation, Senate passage of the major cybersecurity bill sends it to the President’s desk for his signature or veto (Obama supports the measure).
  • CISA is the first cybersecurity bill Congress has approved in years; if passed, it would “encourage companies to share their data on hackers with the government,” according to The Hill.
  • The bipartisan measure, although opposed by many outside Congress who believe it will lead to less individual privacy, is expected to easily clear the Senate.

White House Watch

  • The President’s Schedule At 11:05am, President Obama will welcome the U.S. Women’s National Soccer Team to the East Room of the White House, honoring their FIFA Women’s World Cup victory in July.
  • At 11:40am, Obama will depart from the White House for Chicago, where he arrives at 12:40pm*.
  • At 2pm, the President will address the 122nd Annual International Association of Chiefs of Police (IACP) Conference and Exposition, the “largest gathering of law enforcement leaders in the world,” according to the White House.
  • In his remarks to the IACP, President Obama will call for a criminal justice overhaul, proposing fairer sentences and other reforms. He is also expected to announce his plans to carry out the recommendations put forward by his Task Force on 21st Century Policing, which the President formed after the events in Ferguson, Missouri.
  • That this speech on criminal justice will be delivered in Chicago, a city with an extremely high murder rate, is no coincidence: President Obama is also expected to touch on gun control in his remarks.
  • Later, Obama will attend two fundraising events in Chicago: a 3:05pm fundraiser benefiting the Democratic Senatorial Campaign Committee (DSCC), and a 5:25pm event for the Democratic National Committee (DNC).
  • According to CBS’ Mark Knoller, this is Obama’s 26th visit to his hometown as President, and tonight will be the 20th night of his Presidency that Obama has spent at his Chicago home.
  • *All times local (Eastern Time while the President is in DC, Central Time for Chicago events)

2016 Central

  • The 2016 Inbox I have subscribed to the mailing lists of every Democratic and Republican candidate for President, meaning I am bombarded with dozens of emails every day from every campaign. Every once in a while, I look to sort through that chaos and find a common message throughout the different emails.
  • On Monday, I received 13 emails from the campaigns. Below, I’m looking at four of them – in which four separate candidates claim momentum in the race for President. Here are some excerpts:
  • We are doing better than ever. We are still at the top of every national poll, ABC News and the Washington Post have Trump leading with 32% of support - even if the media won’t report on it. We are leading by huge margins in both New Hampshire and South Carolina, and over 70% of Republican voters agree that he is the most electable candidate.” – Donald J. Trump (subject: “The Trump Train”)
  • “While some campaigns have received headlines for laying off staff, we just hired five new members of our team! As some campaigns have folded, we've expanded our Iowa headquarters just to fit all the volunteers who are coming to help out…We're on a roll! But we can't keep the momentum going without your help.” – Rick Santorum (subject: “here we go”)
  • “I am taking a quick break from the road in Texas to give you some breaking news on recent critical polling and to update you on our VERY successful trip to Iowa. You won’t hear this story anywhere else. The media wants to write this story differently…Our campaign is starting to feel the momentum on the ground…And the momentum that we are feeling on the ground in Iowa is starting to show up in the polls, in the early states and nationally. We are gaining ground in Iowa and, in fact, passed Jeb Bush and Carly Fiorina. We are gaining ground nationally according to CNN and Monmouth polls. Now is our chance for a comeback to capitalize on this momentum and show that liberty is alive and well in America. I am convinced our campaign has momentum…With your help, we will capitalize on our momentum and ultimately win the nomination.” – Rand Paul (subject: “Breaking News: Gaining in Iowa!”)
  • “I wanted to write to you directly and take a minute to celebrate -- this team has had a truly incredible month! … This campaign has obviously had some tough days -- hell, some tough months -- and we will continue to have our ups and downs. It's important not to get complacent during good times, just as it's important not to panic during challenging ones. But it's also appropriate to celebrate a good stretch like this one, and thank those who made it happen. Congratulations, team. Onward to Iowa!” – Robby Mook, Hillary Clinton campaign manager (subject: “A quick update (it's a good one!)”)
  • They all think they’re winning, but they can’t all be right…
  • Today on the Trail Where are the candidates today?
  • Donald Trump will speak at a campaign rally at West High School in Sioux City, Iowa.
  • Rand Paul will attend a meet and greet in Pahrump, Nevada before speaking at a “Students for Rand” rally on the University of Colorado-Denver campus, the site of tomorrow's Republican debate. At the rally, Paul will “talk policy, take pictures, and show the Washington establishment that the youth vote does matter,” in addition to signing copies of his book “Taking a Stand”. Colorado and Nevada, the two states Paul visits today, are both caucus state key to his path to the nomination.
  • John Kasich will attend a “Debate Send-Off” rally with his Ohio Leadership Team (chaired by Ohio Lt. Gov. Mary Taylor, state Senate President Keith Faber, Ohio Attorney General Mike DeWine, and Ohio State Auditor Dave Yost) in Westerville, Ohio.
  • Hillary Clinton will be appear on CBS's “Late Show” tonight. Host Stephen Colbert announced her appearance by tweeting, “Can't wait to find out what project she's promoting.”
  • Since debuting as the show's host last month, Colbert’s roster of guests has included four other presidential candidates (Republicans Jeb Bush, Ted Cruz, and Donald Trump; Democrat Bernie Sanders), as well as two U.S. Senators (Arizona's John McCain and Massachusetts' Elizabeth Warren), two Cabinet secretaries (Secretary of State John Kerry and Energy Secretary Ernest Moniz), one Supreme Court Justice (Stephen Breyer), one former President (Bill Clinton), First Lady Michelle Obama, and Vice President Joe Biden.
  • Clinton's appearance comes one night before the third Republican debate, mirroring her “Tonight Show” appearance the night of the last GOP brawl.

Question of the Day

  • Monday’s Answer Yesterday, the trivia question was: who are the major presidential candidates who, if elected, would become the oldest President in U.S. history?
  • Despite the fact that I said there was two correct answers yesterday there is indeed three. To start, Ronald Reagan currently holds the title of oldest U.S. President; on his Inauguration date, Reagan was 69 years and 11 months old.
  • The three 2016 candidates who would beat that are: Republican George Pataki (who will be 71 years and 6 months old on Inauguration Day 2017), Republican Donald Trump (will be 70 years and 7 months old), and Democrat Bernie Sanders (will be 75 years and 4 months old).
  • Interestingly, you will notice that (with the exception of Pataki), two of those septuagenarians are leading candidates. In fact, most of those who make up the top tier of the 2016 presidential race are older than the average President.
  • On average, Presidents are 54 years and 11 months old when they take office; of the 15 Republican candidates for President, just five are younger than the average President (and leading candidates such as Trump, Carson, Bush, Fiorina, etc. are all decades older), of the Democratic candidates, just Martin O’Malley (who averages under 1% support) is younger than the average President.
  • Anyways, congratulations are in order for those who answered the question correctly: GREAT JOB…Christa Van Herreweghe, Rick Isserman, and Joe Bookman (Sanders and Trump) and Arthur Liber (Sanders and Pataki) – I mistakenly said there was two, when all three of those answers are indeed acceptable.
  • Also: PARTIAL CREDIT to Joan Zucker, Brad Chotiner, Gail Smith, and Steve Gitnik (just Sanders).
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For more on Wake Up To Politics, listen to Gabe on NPR's "Talk of the Nation, the Political Junkie podcast, and St. Louis Public Radio; watch Gabe on MSNBC's "Up with Steve Kornacki, and read about Gabe in Politico, the St. Louis Post-Dispatch, the Globe, and the St. Louis Jewish Light