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Wake Up To Politics - October 25, 2016

Tuesday, October 25, 2016

14 Days until Election Day 2016 + my 15th birthday (Nov. 8)I'm Gabe Fleisher for Wake Up To Politics, and reporting from WUTP world HQ in my bedroom - Good morning: THIS IS YOUR WAKE UP CALL!!!

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Election Central

  • With Polls Showing Varying Leads for Clinton, Trump Insists He Can Win The ABC News tracking poll released this morning mirrored the results of the outlet's survey's released Sunday: both show Hillary Clinton with a 12-point lead over Donald Trump, leading the presidential race, 50% to 38%. Meanwhile, a CNN/ORC poll released Monday also showed the Democratic nominee with an advantage, although her lead was more than halved from the ABC poll. According to CNN/ORC, Clinton takes 49% of the vote to Trump's 44%%, a lead of 5%. Libertarian nominee Gary Johnson takes 5% in the ABC poll and 3% in the CNN/ORC poll, a significant drop from just a month or two ago, when he was hovering around double-digits. Green Party nominee Jill Stein stands at 2% support in both surveys.
  • So, which is it? 12% or 5%? Donald Trump says neither. "I believe we're actually winning," Trump said at a St. Augustine, Florida rally on Monday, citing two "great polls" that show him in the lead. "The Investors [Business] Daily poll, which was the single most accurate poll for the last three cycles. The last three presidential races. We're up. We just went up. We were down three. We were down five. We're now two up in Rasmussen. Just came out this morning. We're up in another couple of polls," Trump said.
  • Trump was correct in that he leads Clinton by 2%, according to a Rasmussen Reports poll released Monday; however, the IBD/TIPP poll released Monday found Trump and Clinton tied, 41% to 41%. The IBD/TIPP poll released this morning, after Trump's remarks, shows Clinton with a 1-point edge. When it comes to the most reliable poll in presidential election, it depends on how one measures accuracy. IBD has declared itself the most reliable poll based on its final poll's proximity to the winner's final total: in 2012, IBD's last poll showed Obama taking 50.3% of the vote, closer than any other poll to his actual total o 51.5%. However, if accuracy is measured by proximity to the final margin, ABC/Washington Post, Reuters/Ispos, and Public Policy Polling's final polls all showed Obama's margin of victory closer to the actual result than IBD/TIPP.
  • Trump also targeted all other polls on Monday, calling them "phony," and the media "disgusting." Trump said at the Florida rally: "The media isn't just against me. They're against all of you. They're against what we represent."
  • Despite Trump's claim that he is winning, his campaign manager Kellyanne Conway admitted Sunday that the campaign is trailing. "We are behind. She has some advantages," Conway said on NBC's "Meet the Press," pointing to Clinton's boost by "a former president, [who] happens to be her husband, campaigning for her; the current president and first lady, vice president -- all much more popular than she can hope to be."
  • Beyond national polls, Trump's Electoral College path to victory also seems to be slipping away, with recent polls show Clinton maintain her lead in Florida, North Carolina, Nevada, Michigan, and other battleground states, while a Texas poll released Sunday showed Trump leading by just 3% in the normally strong Republican state.
  • Campaign Rundown The latest 2016 election news.
  • Idaho Sen. Mike Crapo (R) has changed his mind on the presidential race for the third time. After endorsing Donald Trump in May after the billionaire clinched the GOP nomination, and then rescinding his endorsement earlier this month after the 2005 video of Trump on "Access Hollywood" was released, Crapo said in a statement on Monday that he is supporting Trump again. "The choice we have is between Donald Trump and Hillary Clinton. Given that choice, I will vote for the Republican ticket, Trump and Pence," he said, citing the Supreme Court and the economy as his reasoning.
  • Crapo joins Republican Sens. John Thune (SD) and Deb Ficher (NE) in re-endorsing Trump after pulling their support.
  • Former State Department official John Bentel, who directed the Information Resources Management staff when Clinton served as Secretary of State, "took the Fifth" more than 90 times during a Monday deposition in a civil lawsuit related to Clinton's private emal server. Bentel repeatedly invoked his Fifth Amendment right to not answer any questions, leaving the inquiries from Judivial Watch (a conservative group that brought the lawsuit) unanswered.
  • Bentel was ordered to be deposed by U.S. Disitrct Court Judge Emmet Sullivan in August, due to Bentel's testimony before the House Benghazi Committee last year that he did not recollect being told of Clinton's private server contradicting emails released showing he was informed.
  • Donald Trump attempting to discredit his 11th accuser of sexual misconduct on Monday, going after former adult film actress Jessica Drake, who (flanked by attorney Gloria Allred) told reporters that Trump sexually assaulted her at a charity golf tournament in 2006. “One said, ‘He grabbed me on the arm,’ and she is a porn star, this one who came out recently," Trump said on a New Hampshire radio station on Monday, referring to Drake. "He grabbed me, and he grabbed me on the arm — oh, I’m sure she has never been grabbed before.”
  • President Barack Obama told ABC late-night host Jimmy Kimmel on Monday that during the presidential debates, his reaction is to laugh at Trump "most of the time." Obama told Kimmel that he watched the 2005 tape of Trump the day it was released, and said he knew immediately the problem it would pose for Trump.
  • The President also participated in Kimmel's "mean tweets" segment, reading critical tweets people have written about him, including one from Donald Trump that said he would go down as "perhaps the worst president in the history of the United States.” Obama responded: “Well, @realdonaldtrump, at least I will go down as a president of the United States."
  • The Las Vegas Review-Journal became the first major newspaper to endorse Trump on Sunday, calling Trump the answer to the "frustration and disillusionment today with the political institutions that govern the nation." The Review-Journal, which is has the largest circulation of any daily newspaper in battleground state Nevada, is owned by Republican megadonor Sheldon Adelson.
  • Donald Trump's campaign, dissatisfied with media coverage, is starting its own nightly newscast. The campaign announced the launch of "Trump Tower Live" on Monday, which will air as a Facebook Live webcast every night at 6:30pm (the same time as the nightly news, and directly before Trump's 7pm primetime rallies) through the remainder of the election. Trump's Facebook page called it "nightly campaign coverage"; the screen looked a lot like a broadcast news show at quick glance, leading some to wonder if viewers would be able to tell the difference. Others wondered if this is a prelude to a "Trump TV" network potentially coming after the election.
  • "We're excited to be bypassing the left-wing media," Trump senior adviser Boris Epshteyn said in the debut episode. According to CNNMoney, "the stream averaged 40,000 to 60,000 viewers on Facebook in the first half hour -- which is high by Facebook Live standards but very low by TV ratings standards."
  • Epshteyn and fellow Trump adviser Cliff Sims will co-host the live show from Trump Tower; The Blaze host Tomi Lahren will also oin for a "Final Thoughts" segment, with members of the Trump family and inner circle (such as campaign manager Kellyanne Conway and RNC chief strategist Sean Spicer) expected to make appearances as well.
  • Today on the Trail Where are the 2016 presidential candidates campaigning today?
  • Republican presidential Donald Trump and Democratic presidential nominee Hillary Clinton are both campaigning in Florida today, underlining the Sunshine State's importance in November. Florida has voted for the eventual winner of every presidential election since 1932, with just two exceptions, and is essential to each candidates' path to victory. Currently, Clinton has a 4-point lead in the state, with the RCP polling average showing her at 47.8% to Trump's 43.8%.
  • Trump will hold two rallies in Florida, one at the Million Air Hangar in Orlando Sanford International Airport (3pm) and the other outside the Tallahassee Car Museum (6pm). Meanwhile, Clinton holds a 2:15pm rally at Broward College in Coconut Creek, and attends a fundraiser at the Tampa Bay home of megadonor Chris Korge (at least $5,000 per person).
  • Meanwhile, Trump's running mate Mike Pence holds three events in another key battleground state: Ohio. Pence will headline rallies at the Grand Aire, Inc. Airport Hangar in Swanton (11am), at Ashland University (2pm), and at Marietta High School (6pm).
  • Clinton's VP nominee Tim Kaine has no public events today, although he will attend a 5pm fundraiser in New York City. The fundraiser, hosted by Food Network host Katie Lee, has been titled "Hill's Kitchen" by the campaign. Tickets range from $100 ("Friend") to $25,000 ("Executive Chef") for the reception with Kaine, featuring a tasting from a number of celebrity chefs and New York restaurants.
  • As has been a pattern in recent weeks, the Clinton campaign will also have a number of high-powered surrogates on the trail today, while the GOP ticket has just Trump and Pence campaigning. Vice President Joe Biden holds a GOTV Event at Chatham University in Pittsburgh, Pennsylvania at 11:30am, Massachusetts Sen. Elizabeth Warren holds an Early Vote Event at Meredith Collge in Raleigh, North Carolina at 8pm, and Chelsea Clinton holds three events in Wisconsin for her mother.
  • Libertarian nominee Gary Johnson and Green Party nominee Jill Stein have no public events today; Independent candidate Evan McMullin will hold a rally at Colorado Christian University in Lakewood, Colorado at 7:30pm.

White House Watch

  • The President's Schedule President Obama wakes up in Los Angeles today, where he will participate in a Democratic Senatorial Campaign Committee (DSCC) roundtable fundraiser at 11:20am local time.
  • At 12:50pm local time, Obama will depart California, arriving back at the White House at 8:25pm Eastern Time.

Daily Data

  • Election Stress 46% of likely voters describe the 2016 election as "a source of stress in their lives," with 23% describing it as a source of "serious stress." The highest category of voters who said they were stressed were self-described liberal Democrats, 57% of whom said they were stressed about the election. 56% of evangelical white Protestants, a reliable Republican demographic that is now struggling with supporting Trump, said they were stressed about the election. (ABC News Tracking Poll released today).
  • Flip-Flopping The election isn't over yet. 86% of likely voters have made up their mind, but 14% said they may end up supporting a different candidate. (CNN/ORC poll released Monday).
  • GOP Unity 57% of Republican and Republican-leaning voters say they think the Republican Party is currently divided and will still be divided in November. Just 7% of GOP voters believe the party is united now, while 35% believe the party will unite by November. 63% of Republicans said that the party needs to unite for Trump to win, while 34% said he could win without a united GOP. When examining the Republican divide closer, 63% of GOPers said they trust Trump to lead the party more than House Speaker Paul Ryan, while 34% trust Ryan more. Even among Trump supporters, one-fourth (25%) trust Ryan more to lead the Republican Party, although 72% of Trump's supporters trust him more. (NBC News/Survey Monkey poll released today).
  • Trust in Elections 43% of Americans said they have "a great deal of confidence that their vote will be counted accurately," while 38% report having "some confidence," and 17% say they have "little confidence." The gulf in confidence is especially wide between each candidate's supporters: 70% of likely voters supporting Clinton said they had a "great deal of confidence," compared to 41% of Trump supporters. Americans are also split over the "more significant problem with U.S. elections today": 41% believe voter suppression is the top issue, compared to 37% who believe it is voter fraud, and 9% who said voter apathy. A majority of Americans (57%) agreed with the statement that "politics and elections are controlled by people with money and by big corporations so it doesn’t matter if they vote," while 42% disagree. (PRRI poll released Monday).
  • The Young Vote 60% of likely voters aged 18 to 30 plan to vote support Hillary Clinton, compared to 19% supporting Donald Trump, with 12% supporting Gary Johnson and 6% backing Jill Stein. Clinton exactly matches Obama's 2012 support amogn the same category, while, according to exit polls, Republican Mitt Romney had nearly double Trump's support among young voters, with Obama winning voters under age 30, 60% to 37%. (GenForward poll released Monday).

Smart Reads

  • Political stories you need to read from the past 24 hours:
  • Obama and Biden After the White House
  • "Professor Joe Biden?" (Politico): "Vice President Joe Biden is planning his next move once his tenure in the White House comes to an end in January.
  • "During an unannounced visit to a Hillary Clinton campaign regional office in Toledo, Ohio, on Monday, Biden said he is in talks with 'a couple of major universities' and that he wants to continue some kind of involvement in domestic and foreign policy.
  • "'I may write a book. This might disappoint you, it won't be a tell-all book,' Biden said to a group of about 70 people, most of them Clinton volunteers, according to a pool report on his day."
  • "Next Job for Obama? Silicon Valley Is Hiring" (New York Times) "With less than three months left in his presidency, Mr. Obama is preparing for a life after the White House that will most likely include a close relationship with Silicon Valley. officials running Mr. Obama's presidential foundation have made about 10 trips to tech strongholds in California in the past year as they help him plot his next steps."
  • Sanders, Warren's Friendship with Clinton May Not Last Long
  • "Sanders is prepared to be a liberal thorn in Clinton’s side" (Washington Post) "Sen. Bernie Sanders, a loyal soldier for Hillary Clinton since he conceded the Democratic presidential nomination in July, plans to push liberal legislation with like-minded senators with or without Clinton’s support if she is elected — and to aggressively oppose appointments that do not pass muster with the party’s left wing."
  • "Clinton and Warren: Friends now, trouble ahead" (Politico) "This could be the ending of a beautiful friendship.
  • "Hillary Clinton and Elizabeth Warren, dressed in matching jewel-toned pantsuits, touted each other’s virtues Monday on a crisp, golden-leafed autumn afternoon at an outdoor rally on the main quad of Saint Anselm College.
  • "...But there’s tension on the horizon: If Clinton wins, Warren has promised to rattle the gates of a Clinton White House — as she did to President Barack Obama — pushing for progressive, anti-Wall Street crusaders to fill posts as top economic advisers and, most importantly to her of all, Treasury secretary."
  • A Day In the Life of Kellaynne Conway If you read one thing today, make it be this: CNN's profile of Trump campaign manager is full of fascinating tidbits going inside the Trump-Conway relationship. (CNN)

Today's Trivia

  • Today's Question The ABC News tracking poll and CNN/ORC poll cited earlier show Hillary Clinton leading by very different margin. There is also another significant difference in the two polls: Clinton has 50% support in the former, and 49% support in the latter. While that may seem like just a difference of 1%, it is also the difference between being elected with a majority and a plurality of Americans.
  • Name the three presidents who were elected twice without majority support in the popular vote. Email me to trivia@wakeuptopolitics.com to send me your guess; correct respondents get their name in tomorrow's newsletter!
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