Tuesday, August 30, 2016
70 Days Until Election Day 2016
27 Days Until the First Presidential Debate
I'm Gabe Fleisher for Wake Up To Politics, and reporting from WUTP world HQ in my bedroom - Good morning: THIS IS YOUR WAKE UP CALL!!!
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- POLLING: Clinton Leads in Monmouth Poll; Both Candidates Remain Tainted by Scandal and Hugely Unpopular A new Monmouth University poll of the presidential election was released Monday, showing Hillary Clinton with a 7-point lead over Donald Trump, 46% to 39%. Libertarian Gary Johnson took 7% of the vote; Green Party nominee Jill Stein, 2%.
- This shows a Clinton lead slightly higher than her 4.4% advantage in the RealClearPolitics average, which stands at 42.5% for Clinton, 38.1% for Trump, 8% for Johnson, and 3.1% for Stein.
- Monmouth’s previous poll, conducted from August 4 to August 7 (right after the national conventions), showed Clinton with a much larger lead among likely voters. The early August survey showed Clinton taking 50% of the vote to Trump’s 37%, a 13-point margin. Johnsons and Stein both recorded the same amounts of support in early August as they did in the new poll.
- Interestingly, Clinton’s support among Democrats dropped from early August (92% to 85%) – although she gained an edge among Independents (37% to 32%, a turnaround from early August, when 32% of Independents said they supported Trump and 30% said they supported Clinton. Trump’s stock among Republicans stayed constant (79% to 78%).
- Monmouth University also tested voters’ opinions on the scandals surrounding each candidate, finding that 54% of voters “agree that donors to the Clinton family's non-profit foundation were given special treatment” when Clinton was Secretary of State (26% “feel she did nothing out of the ordinary), while 62% of voters say it is very or somewhat important to them that both nominees release their tax returns (36% said it wasn’t important.)
- As has been evident in other polls for month, Monmouth also found that the “number of voters who do not have a positive opinion of either major party nominee is considerably higher than any other election in recent memory.”
- Clinton’s favorable rating stood at 34%, with 51% of voters reporting an unfavorable view of the Democrat. 26% said they had a favorable opinion of Trump; 51% said they had an unfavorable view of him. Just 2% of voters have a favorable opinion of both candidates; 35% do not have a favorable opinion of either. Those two last statistics are highly unprecedented: since 1984, at least 5% of voters in every election have recorded favorable opinions of both candidates (19% even said so in 2000), and the number who said they did not have a favorable view of either candidate has never been higher than 9% (this year, it is more than one-third of the likely electorate.)
- The poll, which has a margin of error of + 3.5%, was conducted from August 25 to 28 via telephone with 802 registered U.S. voters (all statistics in this summary were just of likely voters).
- Is It Too Late for Trump? “…The Republican nominee — three months after clinching the nomination — has begun frantically trying to reposition himself in the past week, installing a new campaign manager and controversial CEO to help him escape the straitjacket that his 14 months of incendiary comments and hard-edged policy positions have him in.”
- “…Trump may not have that kind of time. Early voting begins in 26 days in Minnesota and in 32 other states soon after that. And already, as summer inches to its end, 90 percent of Americans say they’ve decided. For all the televised daily drama this race has provided, the final outcome itself is shaping up to be less dramatic than any presidential election since 1984.” (Politico)
- REGRETS: GOP Voters Wish They’d Picked Different Nominee While Monmouth’s poll found more than three-fourths of Republican likely voters will support their nominee in November, a Huffington Post/YouGov survey released Monday found they do regret their choice of nominee.
- In the Huffington Post/YouGov poll, 54% of Republican and Republican-leaning voters say Donald Trump was not the best option among their 17 presidential candidates; 35% say he was. Meanwhile, 53% of Democratic voters say Hillary Clinton was the best option for their party, compared to 37% who say she was not.
- Among the entire electorate, 20% of voters say Trump was the best GOP choice, and 30% say Clinton was the best option for the Democrats.
- If they could do the primary over, a plurality (29%) of GOP voters would vote for Trump to become the Republican nominee; 15% would cast ballots for Sen. Ted Cruz (R-TX); and 14% for Sen. Marco Rubio (the other candidates all received support in the single-digits). In a Democratic do-over, 47% of Democratic voters would still choose Clinton, while 42% would vote for Vermont Sen. Bernie Sanders.
- The Huffington Post/YouGov poll, conducted from August 24 to 25, interviewed 1,000 U.S. adults.
- When GOP Leaders Left Trump The Republican rank-and-file may be sticking with Trump, but at least 110 current/former Republican members of Congress, Republicans governors, and high-level officials from past Republican administrations have announced that they will not vote for Donald Trump. The New York Times offers this interactive, with a timeline of Trump’s most controversial quote on one side, and the date GOP leaders deserted him on the other. http://www.nytimes.com/interactive/2016/08/29/us/politics/at-least-110-republican-leaders-wont-vote-for-donald-trump-heres-when-they-reached-their-breaking-point.html
- PRIMARY DAY: Voters Head to the Polls in Arizona, Florida Two state should congressional primary elections today. Here are the top races:
- Arizona – U.S. Senate Running for his sixth term, Sen. John McCain (R-AZ) fights for his political life in his primary today. McCain is favored to handily beat his challenger, former state Sen. Kelli Ward (a CNN/ORC poll last week showed McCain winning the primary, 55% to 29%), but the onslaught of attacks he has received from Ward have been shocking.
- “John McCain is falling down on the job,” Ward said on MSNBC over the weekend. “He has gotten weak. He has gotten old. I do want to wish him a happy birthday. He’s going to be 80 on Monday, and I want to give him the best birthday present ever -- the gift of retirement.”
- Ward continued, noting her training as a physician: “I know what happens to the body and the mind at the end of life.” Later, Ward suggested to Politico that McCain could die in office. “I’m a doctor. The life expectancy of the American male is not 86 [the age McCain would be at the end of another term]. It’s less,” she said.
- Although McCain is expected to win, his team is bracing for a close race, and Ward’s attacks won’t help him in his November race against Rep. Ann Kirkpatrick (D-AZ), which is expected to be the toughest general election contest of his 34-year political career.
- Florida – U.S. Senate Both parties have contested primary battles for Senate today, as Sen. Marco Rubio (R-FL) fends off a challenge from businessman Carlos Beruff, and Democratic Reps. Patrck Murphy and Alan Grayson face off to oppose Rubio or Beruff in November.
- Rubio was initially not planning to run for a second term; Beruff was the only candidate not to drop out after the incumbent decided he would jump back in the race. Rubio is expected to easily win the primary, into which Beruff has poured $7 million of his own money.
- Murphy, meanwhile, has benefited from the support of the Democratic establishment and has handily outraised Grayson, who is floundering in face of reports that he abused his ex-wife.
- Florida – U.S. House – District 23 Just one month after resigning as chairwoman of the Democratic National Committee in response to leaked emails showed her and her staff trading disparaging messages about Bernie Sanders’ presidential campaign, Rep. Debbie Wassermann Schultz (D-FL) faces the wrath of Sanders and his supporters at the ballot box today.
- Law professor Tim Canova, endorsed by Sen. Bernie Sanders (I-VT) and supported financially by many Sanders voters across the country, has sought to capitalize off of Wasserman Schultz’ national troubles in recent weeks to beat her at home. Wasserman Schultz has represented the predominately Jewish area for decades, since her 1992 election to the state legislature (she has served in the House since 2005, when she became Florida’s first Jewish congresswoman).
- Canova has never held public office, and appears to be trailing Wassermann Schultz in the race, although he has raised an impressive $3.5 million since January.
- A poll released by Sun Sentinel last week showed Wasserman Schultz winning the primary, 50% to 40%.
- COMING SOON: Trump to Continue Pivot to Black Voters in Detroit Trip Donald Trump will visit Detroit, Michigan on Saturday, in a continued effort to reach out to African-American voters. During his visit, Trump will attend church services at Great Faith Ministries, before sitting for an interview with Bishop Wayne T. Jackson, president and CEO of Impact Network, the only African-American Christian television network.
- According to a statement by Pastor Mark Burns, a top Trump surrogate, the Republican nominee will “answer questions that are relevant to the African American community such as education (including HBCUs), unemployment, making our streets safe and creating better opportunities for all” and offer remarks “to outline policies that will impact minorities and the disenfranchised in our country.” The Impact Network interview will not include all positive questions: after facing backlash from fellow African-American leaders in Detroit for inviting Trump for a one-on-one interview, Jackson said he will not let the candidate off easy. “I’m going to ask him that question: Are you a racist?” Jackson told The Detroit News. “I’m going to ask him questions that pertain to the heart of our community…But there’s a lot of emotional anger tied to this, and we need to make sure that our concerns as a community are met.”
- Leading up to Saturday’s trip, Trump continued his minority outreach Monday. “Look how bad it is getting!” he tweeted. “How much more crime, how many more shootings, will it take for African-Americans and Latinos to vote Trump=SAFE!”
- In an additional tweet seven minutes later, Trump continued: “Inner-city crime is reaching record levels. African-Americans will vote for Trump because they know I will stop the slaughter going on!” 26 minutes after that tweet, Trump concluded: “Now that African-Americans are seeing what a bad job Hillary type policy and management has done to the inner-cities, they want TRUMP!”
- TODAY ON THE TRAIL: Clinton Fundraises; Trump Campaigns in Washington Hillary Clinton will continue to fundraise today (she has held just two public events in the past two weeks), attending three events in the New York/New Jersey area. Today, Clinton will attend a fundraiser in Bridgehampton, New Jersey at the home of New York Giants co-owner Johnathon Tisch ($33,000 per person), a cocktail reception in Sagaponack, New York ($10,000 to $100,000 per person), and a “Dinner and Dancing” event at Jimmy Buffett’s North Haven, New York home featuring performances by Buffett and Jon Bon Jovi.
- According to CNN, Clinton has so far attended 31 fundraising events in August, the most of any month this year – raising over $58 million, including $11 million just on Sunday. Combined with the haul from Kaine’s events so far in August, the Democratic ticket has raised over $70 million from fundraisers alone, putting Clinton-Kaine on track to make August their best fundraising month of the campaign (July 2016 is currently Clinton’s best month of the campaign.) Fundraising in August gives the campaign a chance to restock on money for the last two months of the general election, where the principals can focus on meeting voters and preparing for debates.
- Meanwhile, Tim Kaine will speak about the economy in Pennsylvania, holding organizing events at the Bayfront Convention Center in Erie (1pm) and the Boys & Girls Club of Lancaster (6pm).
- Donald Trump spends the day in Washington state, holding a 4:30pm fundraiser in Seattle (tickets range from $2,700 to $100,000) and a 7pm rally at Xfinity Arena in Everett.
- Finally, Mike Pence holds two events today: a 3pm town hall at Northwest Georgia Trade and Convention Center in Dalton, Georgia, and an 8pm rally at The Millennium Center in Winston Salem, North Carolina.
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